My Mewelde Moore and Wes Welker picks should have gotten you some big points (if you had listened). This week, I've got some dandies for y'all:
1. Deuce McCallister, RB, New Orleans - With Reggie Bush out, McCallister should get close to 20 carries and in effect, should put up some solid points as a #3 running back. Start him if you have an opening. I'm guessing he won't be on the waiver wires (although, many people who had drafted him at the beginning of the season might have let him go by now), but if you have him, this is the week to use him. *see my comment post
2. Brad Johnson, QB, Dallas - Another sleeper by default...Without Tony Romo, Johnson is the guy and there's no way an offense like Dallas, regardless of the quarterback, won't put points on the board. A warning, however, that he is a last resort and only if you have no other choice.
3. BenJarvis Green-Ellis, RB, New England - This is my pick-of-the week. Most leagues should still have this undrafted rookie on the wire and with Morris out again, he should rack up some good yardage and could get some short-yardage TD's. After New England's passing display last week, look for the St. Louis' secondary to be backed-up in zone coverage most of the game, making for some nice holes in-between the tackle-box.
4. Lance Moore, WR, New Orleans - Every wide receiver on this New Orleans offense should get some catches against a pretty soft San Diego secondary, so expect Moore to gain you some nice points. I include him here because he should still be available on waiver wire, but like Johnson, only pick him up if you are in dire need of a #2 or #3 wide receiver.
5. New York Jets ST/D - This is my second favorite pick of the week. The Jets defense has not played very well as of yet this season, but they will be hungry to get after a sputtering Kansas City offense that will playing it's third-string quarterback and most likely will be without Larry Johnson again. This is the only week I would suggest starting the Jets, but it is a good one to do so.
There you have it. As stated, Green-Ellis and the Jets D are my "Best Picks," and both are probably available to pick up right away. And JP, if you're reading this, Coles and Cotchery should both definitely start this week against a horrible Kansas City team. They aren't sleepers by any means, but I thought I'd throw it in for good measure.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Week 9 Top 25 College Football Predictions
It's official - the standings, I mean - The BCS Standings came out this past week, so we now have an "official" Top 25. It looks like voters are punishing Florida for a bad loss to Ole Miss and it also looks like the voters are continuing to punish Ohio State for it's last two National Championship losses. There is, however, a rare unanimous decision for the #1 spot in Texas. We'll see if they can hold on this weekend against a very good Oklahoma State team.
Without further ado...
#6 Oklahoma State at #1 Texas - 3:30 pm ET
It's too bad ESPN is really the only news source for sports, as their entire coverage has centered around their featured game, Penn State at Ohio State. In reality, this game probably has more National Championship implications. I think most pundits expect this game to be more lopsided than it will end up, which could be adding to the absence of coverage. If this game were in the Cowboys backyard, I might actually pick them, but in Austin, the crowd and the excitement will just be too much for Oklahoma State to handle. Closer than most think, but a Texas victory nonetheless.
My Prediction: Texas 45 - Oklahoma State 38
#2 Alabama at Tennessee - 7:45 pm ET
Tennessee is one of this year's major dissapointments and Alabama is one of this year's biggest surprises...In with the new and out with the old. Alabama wins this one big after a tight one against Kentucky the week before. Saban will have his kids focused and ready to play. The Tennessee crowd will try and pretend like it matters, but after the first quarter, they'll be silent once again.
My Prediction: Alabama 34 - Tennessee 10
#3 Penn State at #9 Ohio State - 8:00 pm ET
What more can I say here that I haven't already said. Pryor's from Pennsylvania, Clark's from Ohio...that's kind of cool. Since joining the Big Ten, Penn State has never won in the Horseshoe...that's kind of sad. Ohio State hasn't had a Freshman start at quarterback since the 1970's and the kid's 5-0 in his college career...That's kind of badass. As stated before, if this game was in Happy Valley, I give the edge to Penn State, but Columbus has been waiting to take it's revenge out on another highly ranked team since USC and they will be ruthless in the stands. Chalk this game up to the 12th Man and the Buckeyes edge the Lions to jump back into the top 5 in the standings.
My Prediction: Ohio State 32 - Penn State 27
#4 Oklahoma at Kansas State - 12:30 pm ET
Not a whole lot of explaining needed here...Oklahoma is going to have a field day and will let some of the third-stringers get work in the fourth quarter. If Kansas State stays within 35 points, I will be surprised. Boomer Sooner!
My Prediction: Oklahoma 52 - Kansas State 10
#5 USC at Arizona - 10:15 pm ET
This one is going to be closer than what we all thought at the beginning of the season. It was supposed to be USC's game at Arizona State that caused a stir in the state of Arizona...Instead, ASU is the embarrasment and UofA actually has hopes of winning the PAC-10. You heard it here first, those hopes will be smashed this weekend. Most years, I would say this is a huge trap game for USC and that Arizona has a chance to upset, but USC already had it's upset and I can guarantee that Carroll won't let them lose their fire going forward. We saw what happened to Washington State when they got in the way. USC - Big.
My Prediction: USC 48 - Arizona 17
#7 Georgia at #13 LSU - 3:30 pm ET
Another great matchup this weekend that has gone largely overlooked. This is a VERY important game for both of these teams, as a chance to go to the SEC Championship game could slip away from the loser. Imagine, we are only half-way through the season and either Georgia or LSU will, for all intensive purposes, be eliminated from Championship contention. This is a very tough game to pick as the Bayou is always a tough place to play, but I think Georgia muscles this one out. I'm taking Stafford to get back into form and have a Heisman-like day.
My Prediction: Georgia 24 - LSU 21
#8 Texas Tech at #23 Kansas - 12:00 pm ET
Some experts think this is a major trap game for Texas Tech and have gone so far as to pick Kansas to win this one, but I don't think so. Kansas' secondary is way too suspect for Harrell not to score on almost every drive down the field, so even if Reesing throws a few touchdowns, it won't matter. I'll take the over on this game and Tech to keep on winning.
My Prediction: Texas Tech 41 - Kansas 38
Kentucky at #10 Florida - 12:30 pm ET
I don't like Kentucky's chances here at all. They're coming off a tough loss to a good Alabama team, they're playing in the Swamp, and Florida has been rolling with Percy harvin back at full speed. Not to mention that Urban Meyer has had an extra week to scheme and come up with tricky little SEC plays.
My Prediction: Florida 31 - Kentucky 17
#12 Boise State at San Jose State - Friday, 9:00 pm ET
Another game that many are picking to be close that I just don't think will be. Boise State has shown no signs of letting up and San Jose State is no real threat. Boise State's defense has been solid, while San Jose has had trouble scoring. That spells s-h-u-t-o-u-t.
My Prediction: Boise State 20 - San Jose State 0
Wyoming at #14 TCU - 6:00 pm ET
There is no way TCU has a let-down after a great win against BYU and being in front of their home crowd. If Wyoming wants to win, they'll have to hope TCU's entire first-string defense gets the flu.
My Prediction: TCU 24 - Wyoming 9
Colorado at #15 Missouri - 6:30 pm ET
Oh, poor Colorado. They are the unfortunate souls who have to be next. Since Missouri's two-game slide, both the fans and the players are going to be taking out their anger on someone...and that someone is Colorado. Chase Daniel plays best with a chip on his shoulder, and after the last two games, I guarantee he's heard some critics reiterate his size-issue in relation to the NFL. This will lead directly to touchdowns...a lot of them.
My Prediction: Missouri 49 - Colorado 28
#16 South Florida at Louisville - 3:30 pm ET
This is my "be careful" game of the week. I am going with South Florida, but with reservations. Louisville has been pretty insignificant this season, not because they have been losing (Kentucky and Connecticut are respectable losses), but because their wins have been against nobodies. I'm not sure anyone really knows how good the Cardinals are and they are at home in this one. I'm taking South Florida by a touchdown, but I won't be surprised at all if somehow the Bulls figure out a way to lose.
My Prediction: South Florida 31 - Louisville 24
Rutgers at #17 Pittsburgh - 3:30 pm ET
Rutgers is BAD this year. BAD. Other than Connecticut, Morgan State is their only other victory. I guess this could be one of those start-out-slow-finish-big years, but I'm not seeing it. There are problems on every side of the ball and there just isn't enough time in the season to figure it all out. On the other hand, Pittsburgh's McCoy has started to play like he was supposed to all along and the Panthers are truly looking like the team that everyone had picked to win the Big East at the beginning of the season. If they can beat West Virginia later in the year, it will be smooth sailing for the Panthers, and they know it.
My Prediction: Pittsburgh 28 - Rutgers 10
Virginia at #18 Georgia Tech - 3:30 pm ET
Virginia has shown some flashes of brilliance lately, but so has Georgia Tech. And I don't think the Yellow Jackets will let their fans down being at home. I will say this...If Virginia wins its third conference game and fourth game in a row overall, I will be a believer of this turnaround season everyone's talking about. Until then, I'm picking Georgia Tech by two touchdowns.
My Prediction: Georgia Tech 24 - Virginia 10
UCF at #19 Tulsa - Sunday, 8:00 pm ET
Tulsa has put up HUGE points on everyone they've faced and this game is no different. David Johnson has 31 touchdown passes in 7 games, which puts him on pace for over 50 on the year. Though there isn't a team worth a hoot in their conference, with numbers like they have, who cares. If you score 77 points in a game, I don't care who you're playing, it's amazing.
My Prediction: Tulsa 69 - UCF 38
Eastern Michigan at #20 Ball State - 12:00 pm ET
I admit, though I am a fan of the MAC, I am not a fan of Ball State. Like Tulsa, Ball State also plays inconsequential teams...unlike Tulsa, they have a defense...but also unlike Tulsa, they need that defense because they don't put up over 50 points every game. I have Ball State losing to both Central and Western Michigan the last two games of the season. The question is, how far will they move up the polls before their long drop?
My Prediction: Ball State 32 - Eastern Michigan 17
UNLV at #21 Brigham Young - 2:00 pm ET
I still don't like BYU, but I like them a lot more now that they are where they belong. UNLV is no match and Max Hall will have a field day throwing the ball. That game at Utah is going to be the back-breaker at the end of the season, which should vault Utah into a BCS game over Boise State and kick BYU into a meaningless bowl.
My Prediction: BYU 48 - UNLV 20
#22 Northwestern at Indiana - 12:00 pm ET
This should have been a pretty good game, but Indiana has underdelivered and is overmatched by a soft-scheduled Northwestern team. Northwestern will still lose three more games this year to Minnesota, Ohio State, and Illinois (in that order), but for now, they can enjoy their Top 25 stay.
My Prediction: Northwestern 32 - Indiana 17
#24 Minnesota at Purdue - 12:00 pm ET
Minnesota, to me, is the surprise of the season. Adam Weber has been playing out of his mind and has shown he has true Senior leadership abilities. Other than an "I'll take it" loss to Ohio State, they shouldn't lose another game. I'll take the Gophers to go the distance and finish tied for second with Penn State in the Big Ten. I know, I know, it's early and there's a lot of football to be played, but I stand my ground.
My Prediction: Minnesota 32 - Purdue 20
Virginia Tech at #25 Florida State - 3:30 pm ET
This is a pretty even matchup, though no one outside of Virginia and Florida cares. I don't expect much scoring, but I do expect Florida State to win at home in a close one. After this win over a mediocre Virginia Tech team, you'll have Seminole fans crying that they're back...Listen, you're not back...You'll lose at LEAST three more games this season, so hold your horses.
My Prediction: Florida State 17 - Virginia Tech 16
And that'll do it...It's getting late here in AZ, so I'm hitting the sack, but be sure to check back tomorrow for my Fantasy Football Sleepers. And as always, be safe this weekend, especially you night-game crowds (I'm talking to you Columbus - No car fires please).
Cheers!
Without further ado...
#6 Oklahoma State at #1 Texas - 3:30 pm ET
It's too bad ESPN is really the only news source for sports, as their entire coverage has centered around their featured game, Penn State at Ohio State. In reality, this game probably has more National Championship implications. I think most pundits expect this game to be more lopsided than it will end up, which could be adding to the absence of coverage. If this game were in the Cowboys backyard, I might actually pick them, but in Austin, the crowd and the excitement will just be too much for Oklahoma State to handle. Closer than most think, but a Texas victory nonetheless.
My Prediction: Texas 45 - Oklahoma State 38
#2 Alabama at Tennessee - 7:45 pm ET
Tennessee is one of this year's major dissapointments and Alabama is one of this year's biggest surprises...In with the new and out with the old. Alabama wins this one big after a tight one against Kentucky the week before. Saban will have his kids focused and ready to play. The Tennessee crowd will try and pretend like it matters, but after the first quarter, they'll be silent once again.
My Prediction: Alabama 34 - Tennessee 10
#3 Penn State at #9 Ohio State - 8:00 pm ET
What more can I say here that I haven't already said. Pryor's from Pennsylvania, Clark's from Ohio...that's kind of cool. Since joining the Big Ten, Penn State has never won in the Horseshoe...that's kind of sad. Ohio State hasn't had a Freshman start at quarterback since the 1970's and the kid's 5-0 in his college career...That's kind of badass. As stated before, if this game was in Happy Valley, I give the edge to Penn State, but Columbus has been waiting to take it's revenge out on another highly ranked team since USC and they will be ruthless in the stands. Chalk this game up to the 12th Man and the Buckeyes edge the Lions to jump back into the top 5 in the standings.
My Prediction: Ohio State 32 - Penn State 27
#4 Oklahoma at Kansas State - 12:30 pm ET
Not a whole lot of explaining needed here...Oklahoma is going to have a field day and will let some of the third-stringers get work in the fourth quarter. If Kansas State stays within 35 points, I will be surprised. Boomer Sooner!
My Prediction: Oklahoma 52 - Kansas State 10
#5 USC at Arizona - 10:15 pm ET
This one is going to be closer than what we all thought at the beginning of the season. It was supposed to be USC's game at Arizona State that caused a stir in the state of Arizona...Instead, ASU is the embarrasment and UofA actually has hopes of winning the PAC-10. You heard it here first, those hopes will be smashed this weekend. Most years, I would say this is a huge trap game for USC and that Arizona has a chance to upset, but USC already had it's upset and I can guarantee that Carroll won't let them lose their fire going forward. We saw what happened to Washington State when they got in the way. USC - Big.
My Prediction: USC 48 - Arizona 17
#7 Georgia at #13 LSU - 3:30 pm ET
Another great matchup this weekend that has gone largely overlooked. This is a VERY important game for both of these teams, as a chance to go to the SEC Championship game could slip away from the loser. Imagine, we are only half-way through the season and either Georgia or LSU will, for all intensive purposes, be eliminated from Championship contention. This is a very tough game to pick as the Bayou is always a tough place to play, but I think Georgia muscles this one out. I'm taking Stafford to get back into form and have a Heisman-like day.
My Prediction: Georgia 24 - LSU 21
#8 Texas Tech at #23 Kansas - 12:00 pm ET
Some experts think this is a major trap game for Texas Tech and have gone so far as to pick Kansas to win this one, but I don't think so. Kansas' secondary is way too suspect for Harrell not to score on almost every drive down the field, so even if Reesing throws a few touchdowns, it won't matter. I'll take the over on this game and Tech to keep on winning.
My Prediction: Texas Tech 41 - Kansas 38
Kentucky at #10 Florida - 12:30 pm ET
I don't like Kentucky's chances here at all. They're coming off a tough loss to a good Alabama team, they're playing in the Swamp, and Florida has been rolling with Percy harvin back at full speed. Not to mention that Urban Meyer has had an extra week to scheme and come up with tricky little SEC plays.
My Prediction: Florida 31 - Kentucky 17
#12 Boise State at San Jose State - Friday, 9:00 pm ET
Another game that many are picking to be close that I just don't think will be. Boise State has shown no signs of letting up and San Jose State is no real threat. Boise State's defense has been solid, while San Jose has had trouble scoring. That spells s-h-u-t-o-u-t.
My Prediction: Boise State 20 - San Jose State 0
Wyoming at #14 TCU - 6:00 pm ET
There is no way TCU has a let-down after a great win against BYU and being in front of their home crowd. If Wyoming wants to win, they'll have to hope TCU's entire first-string defense gets the flu.
My Prediction: TCU 24 - Wyoming 9
Colorado at #15 Missouri - 6:30 pm ET
Oh, poor Colorado. They are the unfortunate souls who have to be next. Since Missouri's two-game slide, both the fans and the players are going to be taking out their anger on someone...and that someone is Colorado. Chase Daniel plays best with a chip on his shoulder, and after the last two games, I guarantee he's heard some critics reiterate his size-issue in relation to the NFL. This will lead directly to touchdowns...a lot of them.
My Prediction: Missouri 49 - Colorado 28
#16 South Florida at Louisville - 3:30 pm ET
This is my "be careful" game of the week. I am going with South Florida, but with reservations. Louisville has been pretty insignificant this season, not because they have been losing (Kentucky and Connecticut are respectable losses), but because their wins have been against nobodies. I'm not sure anyone really knows how good the Cardinals are and they are at home in this one. I'm taking South Florida by a touchdown, but I won't be surprised at all if somehow the Bulls figure out a way to lose.
My Prediction: South Florida 31 - Louisville 24
Rutgers at #17 Pittsburgh - 3:30 pm ET
Rutgers is BAD this year. BAD. Other than Connecticut, Morgan State is their only other victory. I guess this could be one of those start-out-slow-finish-big years, but I'm not seeing it. There are problems on every side of the ball and there just isn't enough time in the season to figure it all out. On the other hand, Pittsburgh's McCoy has started to play like he was supposed to all along and the Panthers are truly looking like the team that everyone had picked to win the Big East at the beginning of the season. If they can beat West Virginia later in the year, it will be smooth sailing for the Panthers, and they know it.
My Prediction: Pittsburgh 28 - Rutgers 10
Virginia at #18 Georgia Tech - 3:30 pm ET
Virginia has shown some flashes of brilliance lately, but so has Georgia Tech. And I don't think the Yellow Jackets will let their fans down being at home. I will say this...If Virginia wins its third conference game and fourth game in a row overall, I will be a believer of this turnaround season everyone's talking about. Until then, I'm picking Georgia Tech by two touchdowns.
My Prediction: Georgia Tech 24 - Virginia 10
UCF at #19 Tulsa - Sunday, 8:00 pm ET
Tulsa has put up HUGE points on everyone they've faced and this game is no different. David Johnson has 31 touchdown passes in 7 games, which puts him on pace for over 50 on the year. Though there isn't a team worth a hoot in their conference, with numbers like they have, who cares. If you score 77 points in a game, I don't care who you're playing, it's amazing.
My Prediction: Tulsa 69 - UCF 38
Eastern Michigan at #20 Ball State - 12:00 pm ET
I admit, though I am a fan of the MAC, I am not a fan of Ball State. Like Tulsa, Ball State also plays inconsequential teams...unlike Tulsa, they have a defense...but also unlike Tulsa, they need that defense because they don't put up over 50 points every game. I have Ball State losing to both Central and Western Michigan the last two games of the season. The question is, how far will they move up the polls before their long drop?
My Prediction: Ball State 32 - Eastern Michigan 17
UNLV at #21 Brigham Young - 2:00 pm ET
I still don't like BYU, but I like them a lot more now that they are where they belong. UNLV is no match and Max Hall will have a field day throwing the ball. That game at Utah is going to be the back-breaker at the end of the season, which should vault Utah into a BCS game over Boise State and kick BYU into a meaningless bowl.
My Prediction: BYU 48 - UNLV 20
#22 Northwestern at Indiana - 12:00 pm ET
This should have been a pretty good game, but Indiana has underdelivered and is overmatched by a soft-scheduled Northwestern team. Northwestern will still lose three more games this year to Minnesota, Ohio State, and Illinois (in that order), but for now, they can enjoy their Top 25 stay.
My Prediction: Northwestern 32 - Indiana 17
#24 Minnesota at Purdue - 12:00 pm ET
Minnesota, to me, is the surprise of the season. Adam Weber has been playing out of his mind and has shown he has true Senior leadership abilities. Other than an "I'll take it" loss to Ohio State, they shouldn't lose another game. I'll take the Gophers to go the distance and finish tied for second with Penn State in the Big Ten. I know, I know, it's early and there's a lot of football to be played, but I stand my ground.
My Prediction: Minnesota 32 - Purdue 20
Virginia Tech at #25 Florida State - 3:30 pm ET
This is a pretty even matchup, though no one outside of Virginia and Florida cares. I don't expect much scoring, but I do expect Florida State to win at home in a close one. After this win over a mediocre Virginia Tech team, you'll have Seminole fans crying that they're back...Listen, you're not back...You'll lose at LEAST three more games this season, so hold your horses.
My Prediction: Florida State 17 - Virginia Tech 16
And that'll do it...It's getting late here in AZ, so I'm hitting the sack, but be sure to check back tomorrow for my Fantasy Football Sleepers. And as always, be safe this weekend, especially you night-game crowds (I'm talking to you Columbus - No car fires please).
Cheers!
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
#3 Penn State at #9 Ohio State - Game Summary Breakdown
Okay, so here's my first ever official Game Summary Breakdown. All of my GSB's will be broken down into Offense (both teams), Defense (both teams), Special Teams, Key Matchups, and the Ksquared Prediction.
ESPN Gameday will be in Columbus, OH before the game and it will be the feature game Saturday night at 8:00 pm ET.
Offense - Penn State:
Penn State ranks 11th in Yards/gm and 7th in Points/gm, making them one of the toughest offenses to stop in the nation. Granted, they haven't played too many stout defenses, but in any league, the numbers they are putting up is still impressive. What I like most about this offense is the many different ways they gain their yardage, as they use everything from the I-Formation to a deep shotgun spread in order to move the ball. This makes it difficult to scheme against them. That all said, the Nittany Lions have not faced a defense of Ohio State's caliber and this will be a huge test for Daryll Clark (QB), Evan Royster (RB), and the explosive Derrick Williams (WR). Williams, though not the top receiver catch-wise for Penn State, has big play ability, and Joe Pa uses him in a multitude of ways, including run plays and screens. The wide-receiver screen play has burned Ohio State many times this year and I expect Penn State to try this one early and often. Look for some nifty plays with Williams and a hefty running attack with Royster to keep the superb Ohio State linebackers pulled tight in order to open up deep passing plays. If the Lions connect on a couple of these deep balls, it could be a long day for the defense and could put some major pressure on Ohio State's sometimes sputtering offense.
Offense - Ohio State:
At the beginning of the season, everyone thought we would be talking about Chris "Beanie" Wells (RB) for Heisman and the Boeckman to "Brians" connection at this point in the season. Instead, everyone's talking about Wells' health and Terrelle Pryor's (QB) amazing talent and composure as a true Freshman starter. Not exactly where the Buckeyes thought they'd be, but not at all a bad spot to be in. Wells is looking better than ever and with Pryor's run-threat addition to the backfield, the Ohio State offense looks like a different kind of dangerous. What makes this combination so dangerous is the threat itself, keeping everyone on the defensive side on their heels until they know who has the ball. This opens huge holes for both Pryor and Wells and these are two VERY good open-field runners. When everything's clicking, just like Penn State's offense, the linebackers get frozen watching the backfield and it creates easy passing lanes for the inexperienced Pryor to loft balls into. And this MUST happen for the Buckeyes to be successful against a stout Penn State defense. If Wells and Pryor get stopped early and Pryor is forced to throw downfield, he is liable to make mistakes, which could turn into interceptions and some game-changing plays. Brian Robiskie (WR) and Brian Hartline (WR) can both be huge playmakers if Pryor has the time and the space to get them the ball, but the Buckeyes gameplan will definitely be feet-first, air-second.
Defense - Penn State:
A candidate for "Linebacker U," Penn State consistently puts tough defensive players on the field and this year is no different. Their front seven top-to-bottom is stronger than Ohio State's and they have held offenses to 263 Yards/gm, good for 8th in the country. This is good, but it is relative as they have not truly faced an intimidating offense yet this year. What worries we most in this game, and what I think might be the difference in winning or losing, is their inability to stop the one running quarterback they faced this year in Juice Williams from Illinois. Penn State gave up 189 rushing yards in that game (almost 100 more than their average) and at times, it looked like Illinois was moving the ball with ease. If the Lions allow that kind of movement down the field against the Buckeyes, they'll never get out from between the lines and could tire by the 3rd and 4th quarters. The key for Penn State on Saturday is assignments...Everyone from the safeties to the defensive linemen need to stay home and do their job. If players consistently miss their mark, Pryor and Wells will run circles around them and could put up a lot of points like they did against Michigan State. If this happens, expect the very stout Buckeye defense to stay strong (both because they are experienced and because they won't be on the field as long) and hold the Lions. However, if Penn State can fill the gaps and make some early stops, watch out. Keep an eye on Aaron Maybin (DE), as he has an incredible 10 sacks already this year.
Defense - Ohio State:
Ohio State's defense got torched against a very skilled USC offense, but hopefully they've learned a thing or two since that game. The key for Ohio State comes down to what has been a weakness throughout the season, including against USC: the defensive front four. Getting pressure on Clark is going to be imperative in order for the Buckeyes to force Penn State into mistakes and create turnovers. If Clark has time behind a suspect Penn State offensive line, he will make the Buckeyes pay for it all day long with his skilled receivers (reference Sept. 13th against USC). If, however, Heyward (DL), Abdallah (DL), and Worthington (DL) can create some pressure in the pocket, Laurinaitis (LB), Freeman (LB), and Jenkins (CB) should have a field-day hawking balls. Look for a possible surprise game from Kurt Coleman (CB) as well, as he has shown flashes of brilliance at times but has yet to have a true breakout game. Pressure, forced throws, and three-and-outs - That is the key to a Buckeye victory. I have no worries about Ohio State stopping the run, so if they can do the above consistently, Penn State's offense will stay off the field.
Special Teams:
On every side of the ball except punting, Penn State gets the nod here. The Nittany Lions' Kevin Kelly (K) is perfect in extra points and has made 12 of 14 field goals, with his long being from 52. There's no doubt that if this game gets close, he could be a huge factor. Also impressive on Penn State's side is their kick return game. Derrick Williams averages 32 yards every time he returns the ball, so if I were Ohio State, I simply would not kick it to him. On punt returns, he is averaging just over 10 yards per return, but he is still a threat to go all the way every time he touches the ball. Punting is where Ohio State may have the upper-hand, which could be important knowing this is a game of two very good defenses and that field position could be at a premium. Ohio State, don't kick it to Williams...Penn State, kick it to Ray Small as much as you can. Small has butter fingers, which is why you may see Lamaar Thomas, a true freshman, returning kicks for some or all of the game.
Key Matchups:
Ohio State defensive line vs. Penn State offensive line
This is going to be an important battle, and one that I don't think anyone can predict. The Penn State O-line has been shaky at times, with linemen being pushed into Clark in the pocket, while the Ohio State D-line has been mediocre at best, with only one game so far where we have seen them get pressure on the quarterback.
Derrick Williams vs. Malcolm Jenkins
I expect Jenkins to be Williams' shadow the entire game. Penn State has other good wide receivers, but if early on, Jenkins can prove that he can cover Williams man-to-man, it opens up a world of possibilities for the Buckeye defense. Conversely, if Jenkins can't run with Williams early, Ohio State will have to double-cover and play zone which could open up some gaping holes. Watch this match-up closely at the beginning of the game.
Pryor and Wells vs. Penn State linebackers
Navorro Bowman leads the Nittany Lions in tackles (by a long shot), so he is key, but the help around him is pretty solid too with Tyrell Sales and Josh Hull. If Pryor and Wells can make these guys miss or just simply get to the second level and if they can do it often, the Buckeyes will score.
Ksquared Prediction:
This should live up to all the hype and will no doubt be a hard fought Big Ten game. No more "three yards and a cloud of dust," this game will be decided by two very talented quarterbacks from the other team's state. A slight edge goes to the Buckeyes on defense due to the experience in big games, but Penn State gets the nod on offense for athleticism at all three key positions: quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. When a game is this even, sometimes you just have to go with the home team, and in this case, being at home is a huge factor. The Horseshoe is one of the most difficult places to play in the country and more than anyone on the field, this will help Terelle Pryor, who might have had some problems had this game been in Happy Valley. It is not in Happy Valley and the Bucks will be ringing the Victory Bell.
Ohio State 32 - Penn State 27
ESPN Gameday will be in Columbus, OH before the game and it will be the feature game Saturday night at 8:00 pm ET.
Offense - Penn State:
Penn State ranks 11th in Yards/gm and 7th in Points/gm, making them one of the toughest offenses to stop in the nation. Granted, they haven't played too many stout defenses, but in any league, the numbers they are putting up is still impressive. What I like most about this offense is the many different ways they gain their yardage, as they use everything from the I-Formation to a deep shotgun spread in order to move the ball. This makes it difficult to scheme against them. That all said, the Nittany Lions have not faced a defense of Ohio State's caliber and this will be a huge test for Daryll Clark (QB), Evan Royster (RB), and the explosive Derrick Williams (WR). Williams, though not the top receiver catch-wise for Penn State, has big play ability, and Joe Pa uses him in a multitude of ways, including run plays and screens. The wide-receiver screen play has burned Ohio State many times this year and I expect Penn State to try this one early and often. Look for some nifty plays with Williams and a hefty running attack with Royster to keep the superb Ohio State linebackers pulled tight in order to open up deep passing plays. If the Lions connect on a couple of these deep balls, it could be a long day for the defense and could put some major pressure on Ohio State's sometimes sputtering offense.
Offense - Ohio State:
At the beginning of the season, everyone thought we would be talking about Chris "Beanie" Wells (RB) for Heisman and the Boeckman to "Brians" connection at this point in the season. Instead, everyone's talking about Wells' health and Terrelle Pryor's (QB) amazing talent and composure as a true Freshman starter. Not exactly where the Buckeyes thought they'd be, but not at all a bad spot to be in. Wells is looking better than ever and with Pryor's run-threat addition to the backfield, the Ohio State offense looks like a different kind of dangerous. What makes this combination so dangerous is the threat itself, keeping everyone on the defensive side on their heels until they know who has the ball. This opens huge holes for both Pryor and Wells and these are two VERY good open-field runners. When everything's clicking, just like Penn State's offense, the linebackers get frozen watching the backfield and it creates easy passing lanes for the inexperienced Pryor to loft balls into. And this MUST happen for the Buckeyes to be successful against a stout Penn State defense. If Wells and Pryor get stopped early and Pryor is forced to throw downfield, he is liable to make mistakes, which could turn into interceptions and some game-changing plays. Brian Robiskie (WR) and Brian Hartline (WR) can both be huge playmakers if Pryor has the time and the space to get them the ball, but the Buckeyes gameplan will definitely be feet-first, air-second.
Defense - Penn State:
A candidate for "Linebacker U," Penn State consistently puts tough defensive players on the field and this year is no different. Their front seven top-to-bottom is stronger than Ohio State's and they have held offenses to 263 Yards/gm, good for 8th in the country. This is good, but it is relative as they have not truly faced an intimidating offense yet this year. What worries we most in this game, and what I think might be the difference in winning or losing, is their inability to stop the one running quarterback they faced this year in Juice Williams from Illinois. Penn State gave up 189 rushing yards in that game (almost 100 more than their average) and at times, it looked like Illinois was moving the ball with ease. If the Lions allow that kind of movement down the field against the Buckeyes, they'll never get out from between the lines and could tire by the 3rd and 4th quarters. The key for Penn State on Saturday is assignments...Everyone from the safeties to the defensive linemen need to stay home and do their job. If players consistently miss their mark, Pryor and Wells will run circles around them and could put up a lot of points like they did against Michigan State. If this happens, expect the very stout Buckeye defense to stay strong (both because they are experienced and because they won't be on the field as long) and hold the Lions. However, if Penn State can fill the gaps and make some early stops, watch out. Keep an eye on Aaron Maybin (DE), as he has an incredible 10 sacks already this year.
Defense - Ohio State:
Ohio State's defense got torched against a very skilled USC offense, but hopefully they've learned a thing or two since that game. The key for Ohio State comes down to what has been a weakness throughout the season, including against USC: the defensive front four. Getting pressure on Clark is going to be imperative in order for the Buckeyes to force Penn State into mistakes and create turnovers. If Clark has time behind a suspect Penn State offensive line, he will make the Buckeyes pay for it all day long with his skilled receivers (reference Sept. 13th against USC). If, however, Heyward (DL), Abdallah (DL), and Worthington (DL) can create some pressure in the pocket, Laurinaitis (LB), Freeman (LB), and Jenkins (CB) should have a field-day hawking balls. Look for a possible surprise game from Kurt Coleman (CB) as well, as he has shown flashes of brilliance at times but has yet to have a true breakout game. Pressure, forced throws, and three-and-outs - That is the key to a Buckeye victory. I have no worries about Ohio State stopping the run, so if they can do the above consistently, Penn State's offense will stay off the field.
Special Teams:
On every side of the ball except punting, Penn State gets the nod here. The Nittany Lions' Kevin Kelly (K) is perfect in extra points and has made 12 of 14 field goals, with his long being from 52. There's no doubt that if this game gets close, he could be a huge factor. Also impressive on Penn State's side is their kick return game. Derrick Williams averages 32 yards every time he returns the ball, so if I were Ohio State, I simply would not kick it to him. On punt returns, he is averaging just over 10 yards per return, but he is still a threat to go all the way every time he touches the ball. Punting is where Ohio State may have the upper-hand, which could be important knowing this is a game of two very good defenses and that field position could be at a premium. Ohio State, don't kick it to Williams...Penn State, kick it to Ray Small as much as you can. Small has butter fingers, which is why you may see Lamaar Thomas, a true freshman, returning kicks for some or all of the game.
Key Matchups:
Ohio State defensive line vs. Penn State offensive line
This is going to be an important battle, and one that I don't think anyone can predict. The Penn State O-line has been shaky at times, with linemen being pushed into Clark in the pocket, while the Ohio State D-line has been mediocre at best, with only one game so far where we have seen them get pressure on the quarterback.
Derrick Williams vs. Malcolm Jenkins
I expect Jenkins to be Williams' shadow the entire game. Penn State has other good wide receivers, but if early on, Jenkins can prove that he can cover Williams man-to-man, it opens up a world of possibilities for the Buckeye defense. Conversely, if Jenkins can't run with Williams early, Ohio State will have to double-cover and play zone which could open up some gaping holes. Watch this match-up closely at the beginning of the game.
Pryor and Wells vs. Penn State linebackers
Navorro Bowman leads the Nittany Lions in tackles (by a long shot), so he is key, but the help around him is pretty solid too with Tyrell Sales and Josh Hull. If Pryor and Wells can make these guys miss or just simply get to the second level and if they can do it often, the Buckeyes will score.
Ksquared Prediction:
This should live up to all the hype and will no doubt be a hard fought Big Ten game. No more "three yards and a cloud of dust," this game will be decided by two very talented quarterbacks from the other team's state. A slight edge goes to the Buckeyes on defense due to the experience in big games, but Penn State gets the nod on offense for athleticism at all three key positions: quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. When a game is this even, sometimes you just have to go with the home team, and in this case, being at home is a huge factor. The Horseshoe is one of the most difficult places to play in the country and more than anyone on the field, this will help Terelle Pryor, who might have had some problems had this game been in Happy Valley. It is not in Happy Valley and the Bucks will be ringing the Victory Bell.
Ohio State 32 - Penn State 27
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Ref Tackles Player - This is Unbelievable!
If you haven't seen this yet, you need to.
I am willing to give the guy the benefit of the doubt in that he might have just been protecting himself, but that twitch action towards the player is what has me looking twice.
Check this out:
Maybe North Texas should sign this guy...
I am willing to give the guy the benefit of the doubt in that he might have just been protecting himself, but that twitch action towards the player is what has me looking twice.
Check this out:
Maybe North Texas should sign this guy...
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Ksquared's NCAA Football Top 25
And revised once again...Here it is.
The Top 25 as seen through the eyes of Ksquared
1. Texas - God Saban is good, but Texas just beat Oklahoma AND Missouri, back-to-back...That's unnatural in this day and age.
2. Alabama - Saban, period.
3. Oklahoma State - They have had more impressive victories than Penn State and though they will be tested this weekend, a loss does not do too much damage (and I think they will finally lose).
4. Texas Tech - What? Three Big 12 teams in the Top 5??? Yes, that is correct. Harrell has proved me wrong and I am now drinking the Kool-Aid.
5. USC - Who knows truly how good this team is, but I do know they're better than Ohio State, hence the #5 ranking.
6. Ohio State - No one wants to to see them here, but this is where they belong. They are better than Penn State right now (and will prove it this weekend) so why should I wait to put them here. USC, you better hope they don't face you again in the Rose Bowl with an experienced Pryor and a healthy Wells.
7. Oklahoma - They are still a great team, but they could be the most volatile within the Top 25, looking at their schedule...It is grueling.
8. Florida - And their climb will continue...Their loss was a bad one, but if they win out, watch out. They could climb their way back into the National Title picture.
9. Penn State - Spread HD is looking very sharp. We'll see if they can stay in the picture this weekend...I am not so confident.
10. Georgia - I am now waivering a little with this Bulldog team. This weekend could speak volumes, but winning in Louisiana is never easy.
11. Utah - The Utes and the Broncos are neck and neck...What I wouldn't give to see them play each other.
12. Boise State - They have looked like the Boise State that beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl not so long ago. I repeat, I wish I could see them play Utah.
13. LSU - I like this team, but they have some growing to do...Next year should be their year.
14. Tulsa - Still putting up gaudy numbers, albeit against sub-par teams. Still, it's impressive.
15. Pittsburgh - This is a different team than what started the season...I expect them to make a nice little run here at the end and possibly be in BCS bowl contention.
16. Kansas - Even if they lose again this week, I still can't drop them much farther because they are playing top echelon teams.
17. South Florida - If they hadn't lost to Pittsburgh, they'd be higher, obviously, but that loss doesn't look so bad right now.
18. Missouri - Another team that could lose two more games and still be in the top 20 simply because of the conference.
19. TCU - Great win against an overrated BYU team. This defense can run with the best in the country.
20. Boston College - The ACC is beating itself up, but BC looks solid.
21. Minnesota - Their only loss? Ohio State. Adam Weber has this team looking VERY good right now. The Northwestern game will be interesting.
22. Georgia Tech - Again, who knows who's best in the ACC. They've all lost to each other and there's no rhyme or reason to it...All I know is they are ALL middle-of-the-pack type teams.
23. Arizona - Huh? They finally put together a couple of good wins? Hold strong against USC this weekend and even if they lose, I might move them UP the rankings. Too bad about that Stanford loss...
24. BYU - Now, this is where they OUGHT to be. They are still a great team, but they are NOT top 10 material.
25. Northwestern - I'm not totally sold that this is a legit top 25 team, but their wins are wins and I can't put anyone else here.
26. Florida State - they haven't proved enough yet...I need to see some more quality wins. The next two weeks will be very telling.
Added: Florida State (#26), Northwestern, Arizona, Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Boston College, TCU
Dropped: California, Ball State, North Carolina, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt
I was wrong about Vanderbilt, as they have dropped two in a row, but I maintain my stance on Virginia Tech and Auburn, both overrated. I will soon be going over my predictions and looking into the future to next week...Stay tuned.
Thank you to the anonymous blogger who pointed out that I had mistakenly left USC out of the mix...I felt bad deleting Florida State since they became odd-man-out, so they get kudos at #26.
All changes are in italics.
The Top 25 as seen through the eyes of Ksquared
1. Texas - God Saban is good, but Texas just beat Oklahoma AND Missouri, back-to-back...That's unnatural in this day and age.
2. Alabama - Saban, period.
3. Oklahoma State - They have had more impressive victories than Penn State and though they will be tested this weekend, a loss does not do too much damage (and I think they will finally lose).
4. Texas Tech - What? Three Big 12 teams in the Top 5??? Yes, that is correct. Harrell has proved me wrong and I am now drinking the Kool-Aid.
5. USC - Who knows truly how good this team is, but I do know they're better than Ohio State, hence the #5 ranking.
6. Ohio State - No one wants to to see them here, but this is where they belong. They are better than Penn State right now (and will prove it this weekend) so why should I wait to put them here. USC, you better hope they don't face you again in the Rose Bowl with an experienced Pryor and a healthy Wells.
7. Oklahoma - They are still a great team, but they could be the most volatile within the Top 25, looking at their schedule...It is grueling.
8. Florida - And their climb will continue...Their loss was a bad one, but if they win out, watch out. They could climb their way back into the National Title picture.
9. Penn State - Spread HD is looking very sharp. We'll see if they can stay in the picture this weekend...I am not so confident.
10. Georgia - I am now waivering a little with this Bulldog team. This weekend could speak volumes, but winning in Louisiana is never easy.
11. Utah - The Utes and the Broncos are neck and neck...What I wouldn't give to see them play each other.
12. Boise State - They have looked like the Boise State that beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl not so long ago. I repeat, I wish I could see them play Utah.
13. LSU - I like this team, but they have some growing to do...Next year should be their year.
14. Tulsa - Still putting up gaudy numbers, albeit against sub-par teams. Still, it's impressive.
15. Pittsburgh - This is a different team than what started the season...I expect them to make a nice little run here at the end and possibly be in BCS bowl contention.
16. Kansas - Even if they lose again this week, I still can't drop them much farther because they are playing top echelon teams.
17. South Florida - If they hadn't lost to Pittsburgh, they'd be higher, obviously, but that loss doesn't look so bad right now.
18. Missouri - Another team that could lose two more games and still be in the top 20 simply because of the conference.
19. TCU - Great win against an overrated BYU team. This defense can run with the best in the country.
20. Boston College - The ACC is beating itself up, but BC looks solid.
21. Minnesota - Their only loss? Ohio State. Adam Weber has this team looking VERY good right now. The Northwestern game will be interesting.
22. Georgia Tech - Again, who knows who's best in the ACC. They've all lost to each other and there's no rhyme or reason to it...All I know is they are ALL middle-of-the-pack type teams.
23. Arizona - Huh? They finally put together a couple of good wins? Hold strong against USC this weekend and even if they lose, I might move them UP the rankings. Too bad about that Stanford loss...
24. BYU - Now, this is where they OUGHT to be. They are still a great team, but they are NOT top 10 material.
25. Northwestern - I'm not totally sold that this is a legit top 25 team, but their wins are wins and I can't put anyone else here.
26. Florida State - they haven't proved enough yet...I need to see some more quality wins. The next two weeks will be very telling.
Added: Florida State (#26), Northwestern, Arizona, Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Boston College, TCU
Dropped: California, Ball State, North Carolina, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt
I was wrong about Vanderbilt, as they have dropped two in a row, but I maintain my stance on Virginia Tech and Auburn, both overrated. I will soon be going over my predictions and looking into the future to next week...Stay tuned.
Thank you to the anonymous blogger who pointed out that I had mistakenly left USC out of the mix...I felt bad deleting Florida State since they became odd-man-out, so they get kudos at #26.
All changes are in italics.
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