Ksquared's New Year's Day BCS Bowl Predictions

As we watch bowls that take longer to say than can keep us awake (like the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl), the anticipation for the big games grows every day. And since every bowl game is almost wholly unpredictable, I will naturally try and predict them...at least, the ones that matter. First off, here are the up-and-coming New Year's Day bowls.

January 1, 2009 - The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi - Pasadena, CA
#8 Penn State vs. #5 USC - 4:30 pm ET
The Good: If asked which bowl game people are most looking forward to, besides the National Championship, this is usually the first game out of their mouths...and for good reason. USC and Penn State have both only lost one game and this classic Big Ten/Pac-10 matchup actually does have all the interworkings of a great game. Penn State's "Spread HD" offense has been pretty flawless and USC's linebacker-stacked defense has been called the best of all time by some experts. Not to mention the fact that Penn State is the "real" Linebacker-U and USC's offense has shown signs of mortality at times. Taking all of that into account with the fact that Penn State beat the team that beat USC, 45-14, and this game may surprise everyone a bit.

The Bad: Penn State barely beat an Ohio State team that got CRUSHED by USC and both of these teams lost to conference foes in very weak conferences. This game could go either way: a high-scoring game with both offenses clicking or a low-scoring game with both defenses playing up to their potential...and nobody wants to see the latter in the Rose Bowl. But it could be worse...It could go exactly as most experts think and USC could completely blow out an oversized, overmatched Penn State, just like they did to the Buckeyes. Big Ten fans, pray to the football Gods that this doesn't happen, or if it does, that Ohio State can find a way to beat Texas. Otherwise, Big Ten respect will be at a premium throughout the 2009 season.

The Ugly Prediction: To steal a line from the flamboyant Lee Corso, "Closer than the experts think!" Penn State will come to play, but since USC is basically playing a home game and in no way will overlook this Penn State team, the offense will make a couple of big plays and the defense, though giving up more points than usual, will play well enough to win. Anytime Pete Carroll has had this much time to prepare, you are asking for trouble.
USC 30 - Penn State 24

January 1, 2009 - Fedex Orange Bowl - Miami, FL
#12 Cincinnati vs. #18 Virginia Tech - 8:30 pm ET
The Good: These two teams are coming off very impressive finishes, with Virginia Tech winning one of the most topsy-turvy conferences of all time and Cincinnati surprising everyone in the country with their number-one status in the high-powered Big East. This is a great matchup on paper, as Cincinnati's offense can score at will at times and Virginia Tech's defense and special teams can give opposing teams absolute fits. Don't expect Virginia Tech to have too much success on offense, but as is the usual against ACC teams, it might not matter. This could be a very close game, and one that should be fun to watch.

The Bad: Tickets to this Orange Bowl have gone for as low as $1 on Ebay and many people may decide to go to bed early to recover from their New Year's Eve hangovers rather than watch this game. Also, if Cincinnati plays as well as it can and Virginia Tech has one of those "ACC breakdowns," this game could end-up being hugely lopsided. For the simple fact that I will be watching, I hope that's not the case.

The Ugly Prediction: "The Bad" happens and Virginia Tech is embarrassed. Cincinnati has too much firepower and too much time to prepare schemes for the Tech defense and the Hokies offense will sputter the entire game. I think the Bearcats want this game more than Virginia Tech does and it should show come New Year's evening.
Cincinnati 28 - Virginia Tech 10

The Path(s) to the NCAA Football National Championship

Every fan of a team in the top 10 still has aspirations of a National Championship; some are delusional, and yet some are justified. Here's a breakdown of how each team could find themselves in Miami come January.

1. Alabama
- Win out the season and beat Florida in the SEC Championship. Most pundits are picking Florida to win that game, and I have to agree with them, but Alabama's still in good position.

2. Texas Tech
- Win in Norman and then wipe the floor with Missouri in the Big 12 Championship...That's it. Easy. Their destiny is in their hands.

3. Texas
- Oklahoma beats Texas Tech and then loses to Oklahoma State...Texas wins out and beats Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. This is not a likely turn of events. Though the Longhorns are ranked above the Sooners, they are not in control of their own destiny, nor are they in good position, as referenced by the above scenario. Texas is an interesting phenomenon at #3.

4. Florida
- Win out the season and beat Alabama in the SEC Championship. Florida actually has a pretty easy path...that is, if you consider King Saban an easy path.

5. Oklahoma
- Beat Texas Tech at home and wipe the floor with Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. Sitting at number 5, Oklahoma is actually in pretty good position to jump #3 Texas and has control of their own destiny.

6. USC
- This is where it gets complicated. USC's chances hinge on the Big 12 and SEC falling within their conferences down the stretch, in addition to USC winning out the season. Here are some of the possibilities:

Big 12 Falters #1 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma AND Baylor, Texas loses to Kansas, and Oklahoma loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.
Big 12 Falters #2 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, Texas loses to Kansas, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.
Big 12 Falters #3 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and Texas loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.

SEC Falters #1 - Alabama loses to Mississippi State or Auburn and then beats Florida in the SEC Championship AND two of the three Big 12 teams ranked above USC lose one more game.
SEC Falters #2 - Florida loses to South Carolina or Florida State and then beats Alabama in the SEC Championship AND two of the three Big 12 teams ranked above USC lose one more game.

Two words: not likely.

7. Utah, 8. Penn State, 9. Boise State, and 10. Georgia
Three words: not a chance.

And there you have it - A heavyweight fight between the SEC and Big 12. And if everyone beats each other up so bad that no one is left standing, USC has a chance.

Other than that, if I'm #7-#10, I'm just hoping I don't lose to a lesser opponent and fall out of BCS contention...forget the National Championship.

How Michigan State wins the Big Ten...Huh?

As improbable as it sounds, here's how it shakes up:

1. Ohio State wins out and finishes the season 10-2 (7-1)
2. Michigan State wins out, including beating Penn State, and finishes the season 10-2 (7-1)
3. Penn State loses to Michigan State and finishes the season 11-1 (7-1)

And this is where the Big Ten tie-breaker rules come into play. Here's what you need to know:

1. Head-to-head, OSU over MSU, MSU over PSU, and PSU over OSU - No winner
2. Ohio State has played the most FBS (formerly Division II) teams during the season, so they are eliminated from contention
3. Head-to-head with two remaining teams, MSU over PSU - MSU winner
4. MSU is Big Ten Conference Champion

There you have it. Simple, right?

Willingham's Replacement, Penn State Doesn't Deserve the NC, Florida-Georgia Game Huge, Other Notes of Interest

From around the country, here's the buzz:

Rivals.com, with many supporters, believes Penn State doesn't deserve the National Championship berth...No matter what. I can't say I can argue the point with any intelligent banter. And so the uproar begins, and only moments after a Penn State win over Ohio State that makes a Nittany Lions undefeated season likely. Enough uproar, and as I have predicted earlier, Penn State, even undefeated, will be nowhere near Miami come January.

It kind of goes without saying that the winner of Texas at Texas Tech this weekend will determine the favorite for the Big 12's donation to the National Championship game, but as Chris Low from ESPN writes, Alabama may not be the shoo-in that everyone thinks, making the Georgia-Florida game just that much more meaningful. If Alabama loses even one game, he believes, there will be no time to climb back up the polls. Florida and Georgia, on the other hand, already took their beating and have begun their climb back to the top, so whoever comes out of the game in Jacksonville unscathed may be the favorite to go to Miami.

If you haven't heard about Texas Tech's new PAT kicker, read this. The kid's story could be turned into a made-for-TV-movie for sure. The question is, how does the story end?

After Ty Willingham's announcement that he will voluntarily step down as Washington's head coach at the end of the season, Dennis Dodd is already conjecturing as to who the replacement will be.

Does anyone care about the ACC right now? No? Then don't read Heather Dinich's breakdown of the ACC finishing possibilities...but if you're a college football fan at all, it's actually pretty intriguing. Even if you don't care about the ACC, read this heartwarming story about a certin Duke Blue Devil's emotional victory after the Vanderbilt upset this weekend (thanks to Heather again for this link).

Buckeyes, You're Now Huge Penn State Fans

After the hard-fought battle last night that ended up being decided just as the pundits predicted, with a mistake by an inexperienced freshman quarterback, everyone in Columbus and around the nation that roots for the Scarlet and Gray should now be rooting for Penn State White.

The reason is simple: If Penn State misses a chance at the National Championship and instead goes to the Rose Bowl, Ohio State will be looking at a Capital One bid...not exactly where Buckeye fans were hoping to be when Laurinaitis, Jenkins, and Robiskie decided to forego the pros to finish their last year in college.

Here's how it could play out:

• Penn State wins out the remainder of the season, goes to the National Championship to face mighty Texas, and Ohio State gets a rematch against USC in the Rose Bowl.

OR

• Penn State wins out, voters don't want to see a Big Ten team get demolished in the National Championship for a third straight year, and a one loss Florida faces Texas in the big game (with two Heisman trophy quarterbacks facing each other). Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State gets the Capitol One.

OR

• Penn State loses to Michigan State, God knows how, and the Nation breaths a collective sigh of relief as the top of the BCS polls are clear of Big Ten teams. In this case, Michigan State is the likely Big Ten Champion and the Rose Bowl committee chooses two non-Big Ten teams. This is worst-case scenario for any Big Ten fan, but especially for the Buckeyes.

Buckeyes, Penn State, Lose-Lose Situation Tonight?

Every college football fan in the country has heard the rumblings: the Big Ten is weak.

Whether you are an SEC fan, a Big 12 fan, or just a college football fan in general, you have seen some of the better teams, possibly your team, get shut out of the national championship because of an undefeated or one-loss Big Ten team. Most fans outside of the Big Ten feel that because their conferences are stronger and their schedules tougher, weaker and less deserving teams are showing up to do battle in the Big Game, and to a point, I can't argue against those feelings.

Which brings me to the question many people are asking before tonight's football action: What will become of the BCS situation after the Penn State-Ohio State game?

My answer will delight SEC, Big 12, Pac-10, WAC, MWC, ACC, and Big East fans country-wide. Penn State and Ohio State will BOTH lose tonight, and here's why...

Result #1: Penn State defeats Ohio State BIG (more than 15 points)
Effect: Ohio State still can't win big games and Penn State just beat an overrated Ohio State team, giving Penn State exactly zero quality wins on the year. Penn State stays at #3, but drops when strength of schedule really starts to come into play at the end of the season. USC has the same problem, so they're in trouble, but Alabama, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia, LSU, and Oklahoma State all have a shot of jumping Penn State if any of them can stay at one-loss or less. In this scenario, Penn State could make it to the National Championship, putting a Big Ten team there for a third straight year, but even in best-case situation for the Big Ten, which this is, I predict the National Championship will be SEC vs. Big 12. Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State finally feels the effects of losing big to two SEC teams in two National Championships in a row.

Result #2: Penn State defeats Ohio State CLOSE (less than 15 points)
Effect: Ohio State still can't win big games and Penn State just beat a mediocre Ohio State team who got beat down by USC and is strugling behind a freshman quarterback who has potential, but a lot of growth to come. Penn State stays at #3, and on down the line, even going undefeated, voters trump the computers and vote a one-loss USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia, or Oklahoma State above them. Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State finally feels the effects of losing big to two SEC teams in two National Championships in a row.

Result #3: Ohio State defeats Penn State CLOSE (less than 15 points)
Effect: Penn State was overrated and Ohio State plays a schedule full of cupcakes. Everyone references the USC game on Sept. 13th to prove that no matter what, Ohio State can not be ranked above USC, and since USC has a bad loss to Oregon State and also plays in a currently-weak conference, voters keep USC capped at #2 or #3 and Ohio State never goes above #4 (even if the computers have them #2). Ohio State goes to the Rose Bowl where they get a rematch with USC or play a two-loss SEC or Big 12 team and have a chance to start to rebuild their reputation with a win. The next year, they are ranked between 10 and 20 in the polls.

Result #4: Ohio State defeats Penn State BIG (more than 15 points)
Effect: Penn State was overrated and Ohio State plays a schedule full of cupcakes. Everyone references the USC game on Sept. 13th to prove that no matter what, Ohio State can not be ranked above USC, and since USC has a bad loss to Oregon State and also plays in a currently-weak conference, voters keep USC capped at #2 or #3 and Ohio State never goes above #4 (even if the computers have them #2). Here's where Robert Frost's "The Road Not Taken" makes all the difference. Win close and you've done nothing to redeem yourself...Win big and you have started on the road less traveled - the road to winning big in big games - the road to redemption. Instead of starting their reputation-rebuild in the Rose Bowl, Ohio State gets its second big win against a good SEC or Big 12 team and the turn-around occurs. The next year, they are again ranked in the top 10, and possibly top 5, in the preseason polls and some of the national noise dies down.

Final Results: There is very little chance of a Big Ten team arriving in Miami and even if they do, if Penn State loses, the national rally cry against the Big Ten will only get louder. The Big Ten will continue to suffer from a negative image perception across the country. The only hope if you're a Big Ten fan are quality wins against good bowl teams across the board, which means Minnesota and Northwestern have never been more important to the Big Ten's reputation.

Here's how I see it playing out:

• Penn State or Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
• The other of Penn State/Ohio State in the Capital One Bowl
• Minnesota and Northwestern both in decent bowl games

The perceptual upswing begins if all four of these teams win their bowl games. I realize that this is an extreme statement, but anything less just gives the rest of the country more fuel for the fire.

If you're a Big Ten fan, pray that whoever wins this game wins it BIG and that the rest of the Big Ten continues to win. Anything short isn't the road less traveled by.

#3 Penn State at #9 Ohio State - Game Summary Breakdown

Okay, so here's my first ever official Game Summary Breakdown. All of my GSB's will be broken down into Offense (both teams), Defense (both teams), Special Teams, Key Matchups, and the Ksquared Prediction.

ESPN Gameday will be in Columbus, OH before the game and it will be the feature game Saturday night at 8:00 pm ET.

Offense - Penn State:
Penn State ranks 11th in Yards/gm and 7th in Points/gm, making them one of the toughest offenses to stop in the nation. Granted, they haven't played too many stout defenses, but in any league, the numbers they are putting up is still impressive. What I like most about this offense is the many different ways they gain their yardage, as they use everything from the I-Formation to a deep shotgun spread in order to move the ball. This makes it difficult to scheme against them. That all said, the Nittany Lions have not faced a defense of Ohio State's caliber and this will be a huge test for Daryll Clark (QB), Evan Royster (RB), and the explosive Derrick Williams (WR). Williams, though not the top receiver catch-wise for Penn State, has big play ability, and Joe Pa uses him in a multitude of ways, including run plays and screens. The wide-receiver screen play has burned Ohio State many times this year and I expect Penn State to try this one early and often. Look for some nifty plays with Williams and a hefty running attack with Royster to keep the superb Ohio State linebackers pulled tight in order to open up deep passing plays. If the Lions connect on a couple of these deep balls, it could be a long day for the defense and could put some major pressure on Ohio State's sometimes sputtering offense.

Offense - Ohio State:
At the beginning of the season, everyone thought we would be talking about Chris "Beanie" Wells (RB) for Heisman and the Boeckman to "Brians" connection at this point in the season. Instead, everyone's talking about Wells' health and Terrelle Pryor's (QB) amazing talent and composure as a true Freshman starter. Not exactly where the Buckeyes thought they'd be, but not at all a bad spot to be in. Wells is looking better than ever and with Pryor's run-threat addition to the backfield, the Ohio State offense looks like a different kind of dangerous. What makes this combination so dangerous is the threat itself, keeping everyone on the defensive side on their heels until they know who has the ball. This opens huge holes for both Pryor and Wells and these are two VERY good open-field runners. When everything's clicking, just like Penn State's offense, the linebackers get frozen watching the backfield and it creates easy passing lanes for the inexperienced Pryor to loft balls into. And this MUST happen for the Buckeyes to be successful against a stout Penn State defense. If Wells and Pryor get stopped early and Pryor is forced to throw downfield, he is liable to make mistakes, which could turn into interceptions and some game-changing plays. Brian Robiskie (WR) and Brian Hartline (WR) can both be huge playmakers if Pryor has the time and the space to get them the ball, but the Buckeyes gameplan will definitely be feet-first, air-second.

Defense - Penn State:
A candidate for "Linebacker U," Penn State consistently puts tough defensive players on the field and this year is no different. Their front seven top-to-bottom is stronger than Ohio State's and they have held offenses to 263 Yards/gm, good for 8th in the country. This is good, but it is relative as they have not truly faced an intimidating offense yet this year. What worries we most in this game, and what I think might be the difference in winning or losing, is their inability to stop the one running quarterback they faced this year in Juice Williams from Illinois. Penn State gave up 189 rushing yards in that game (almost 100 more than their average) and at times, it looked like Illinois was moving the ball with ease. If the Lions allow that kind of movement down the field against the Buckeyes, they'll never get out from between the lines and could tire by the 3rd and 4th quarters. The key for Penn State on Saturday is assignments...Everyone from the safeties to the defensive linemen need to stay home and do their job. If players consistently miss their mark, Pryor and Wells will run circles around them and could put up a lot of points like they did against Michigan State. If this happens, expect the very stout Buckeye defense to stay strong (both because they are experienced and because they won't be on the field as long) and hold the Lions. However, if Penn State can fill the gaps and make some early stops, watch out. Keep an eye on Aaron Maybin (DE), as he has an incredible 10 sacks already this year.

Defense - Ohio State:
Ohio State's defense got torched against a very skilled USC offense, but hopefully they've learned a thing or two since that game. The key for Ohio State comes down to what has been a weakness throughout the season, including against USC: the defensive front four. Getting pressure on Clark is going to be imperative in order for the Buckeyes to force Penn State into mistakes and create turnovers. If Clark has time behind a suspect Penn State offensive line, he will make the Buckeyes pay for it all day long with his skilled receivers (reference Sept. 13th against USC). If, however, Heyward (DL), Abdallah (DL), and Worthington (DL) can create some pressure in the pocket, Laurinaitis (LB), Freeman (LB), and Jenkins (CB) should have a field-day hawking balls. Look for a possible surprise game from Kurt Coleman (CB) as well, as he has shown flashes of brilliance at times but has yet to have a true breakout game. Pressure, forced throws, and three-and-outs - That is the key to a Buckeye victory. I have no worries about Ohio State stopping the run, so if they can do the above consistently, Penn State's offense will stay off the field.

Special Teams:
On every side of the ball except punting, Penn State gets the nod here. The Nittany Lions' Kevin Kelly (K) is perfect in extra points and has made 12 of 14 field goals, with his long being from 52. There's no doubt that if this game gets close, he could be a huge factor. Also impressive on Penn State's side is their kick return game. Derrick Williams averages 32 yards every time he returns the ball, so if I were Ohio State, I simply would not kick it to him. On punt returns, he is averaging just over 10 yards per return, but he is still a threat to go all the way every time he touches the ball. Punting is where Ohio State may have the upper-hand, which could be important knowing this is a game of two very good defenses and that field position could be at a premium. Ohio State, don't kick it to Williams...Penn State, kick it to Ray Small as much as you can. Small has butter fingers, which is why you may see Lamaar Thomas, a true freshman, returning kicks for some or all of the game.

Key Matchups:
Ohio State defensive line vs. Penn State offensive line
This is going to be an important battle, and one that I don't think anyone can predict. The Penn State O-line has been shaky at times, with linemen being pushed into Clark in the pocket, while the Ohio State D-line has been mediocre at best, with only one game so far where we have seen them get pressure on the quarterback.

Derrick Williams vs. Malcolm Jenkins
I expect Jenkins to be Williams' shadow the entire game. Penn State has other good wide receivers, but if early on, Jenkins can prove that he can cover Williams man-to-man, it opens up a world of possibilities for the Buckeye defense. Conversely, if Jenkins can't run with Williams early, Ohio State will have to double-cover and play zone which could open up some gaping holes. Watch this match-up closely at the beginning of the game.

Pryor and Wells vs. Penn State linebackers
Navorro Bowman leads the Nittany Lions in tackles (by a long shot), so he is key, but the help around him is pretty solid too with Tyrell Sales and Josh Hull. If Pryor and Wells can make these guys miss or just simply get to the second level and if they can do it often, the Buckeyes will score.

Ksquared Prediction:
This should live up to all the hype and will no doubt be a hard fought Big Ten game. No more "three yards and a cloud of dust," this game will be decided by two very talented quarterbacks from the other team's state. A slight edge goes to the Buckeyes on defense due to the experience in big games, but Penn State gets the nod on offense for athleticism at all three key positions: quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. When a game is this even, sometimes you just have to go with the home team, and in this case, being at home is a huge factor. The Horseshoe is one of the most difficult places to play in the country and more than anyone on the field, this will help Terelle Pryor, who might have had some problems had this game been in Happy Valley. It is not in Happy Valley and the Bucks will be ringing the Victory Bell.

Ohio State 32 - Penn State 27