Whether you are an SEC fan, a Big 12 fan, or just a college football fan in general, you have seen some of the better teams, possibly your team, get shut out of the national championship because of an undefeated or one-loss Big Ten team. Most fans outside of the Big Ten feel that because their conferences are stronger and their schedules tougher, weaker and less deserving teams are showing up to do battle in the Big Game, and to a point, I can't argue against those feelings.
Which brings me to the question many people are asking before tonight's football action: What will become of the BCS situation after the Penn State-Ohio State game?
My answer will delight SEC, Big 12, Pac-10, WAC, MWC, ACC, and Big East fans country-wide. Penn State and Ohio State will BOTH lose tonight, and here's why...
Result #1: Penn State defeats Ohio State BIG (more than 15 points)
Effect: Ohio State still can't win big games and Penn State just beat an overrated Ohio State team, giving Penn State exactly zero quality wins on the year. Penn State stays at #3, but drops when strength of schedule really starts to come into play at the end of the season. USC has the same problem, so they're in trouble, but Alabama, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia, LSU, and Oklahoma State all have a shot of jumping Penn State if any of them can stay at one-loss or less. In this scenario, Penn State could make it to the National Championship, putting a Big Ten team there for a third straight year, but even in best-case situation for the Big Ten, which this is, I predict the National Championship will be SEC vs. Big 12. Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State finally feels the effects of losing big to two SEC teams in two National Championships in a row.
Result #2: Penn State defeats Ohio State CLOSE (less than 15 points)
Effect: Ohio State still can't win big games and Penn State just beat a mediocre Ohio State team who got beat down by USC and is strugling behind a freshman quarterback who has potential, but a lot of growth to come. Penn State stays at #3, and on down the line, even going undefeated, voters trump the computers and vote a one-loss USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia, or Oklahoma State above them. Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State finally feels the effects of losing big to two SEC teams in two National Championships in a row.
Result #3: Ohio State defeats Penn State CLOSE (less than 15 points)
Effect: Penn State was overrated and Ohio State plays a schedule full of cupcakes. Everyone references the USC game on Sept. 13th to prove that no matter what, Ohio State can not be ranked above USC, and since USC has a bad loss to Oregon State and also plays in a currently-weak conference, voters keep USC capped at #2 or #3 and Ohio State never goes above #4 (even if the computers have them #2). Ohio State goes to the Rose Bowl where they get a rematch with USC or play a two-loss SEC or Big 12 team and have a chance to start to rebuild their reputation with a win. The next year, they are ranked between 10 and 20 in the polls.
Result #4: Ohio State defeats Penn State BIG (more than 15 points)
Effect: Penn State was overrated and Ohio State plays a schedule full of cupcakes. Everyone references the USC game on Sept. 13th to prove that no matter what, Ohio State can not be ranked above USC, and since USC has a bad loss to Oregon State and also plays in a currently-weak conference, voters keep USC capped at #2 or #3 and Ohio State never goes above #4 (even if the computers have them #2). Here's where Robert Frost's "The Road Not Taken" makes all the difference. Win close and you've done nothing to redeem yourself...Win big and you have started on the road less traveled - the road to winning big in big games - the road to redemption. Instead of starting their reputation-rebuild in the Rose Bowl, Ohio State gets its second big win against a good SEC or Big 12 team and the turn-around occurs. The next year, they are again ranked in the top 10, and possibly top 5, in the preseason polls and some of the national noise dies down.
Final Results: There is very little chance of a Big Ten team arriving in Miami and even if they do, if Penn State loses, the national rally cry against the Big Ten will only get louder. The Big Ten will continue to suffer from a negative image perception across the country. The only hope if you're a Big Ten fan are quality wins against good bowl teams across the board, which means Minnesota and Northwestern have never been more important to the Big Ten's reputation.
Here's how I see it playing out:
- Penn State or Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
- The other of Penn State/Ohio State in the Capital One Bowl
- Minnesota and Northwestern both in decent bowl games
The perceptual upswing begins if all four of these teams win their bowl games. I realize that this is an extreme statement, but anything less just gives the rest of the country more fuel for the fire.
If you're a Big Ten fan, pray that whoever wins this game wins it BIG and that the rest of the Big Ten continues to win. Anything short isn't the road less traveled by.
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