Ksquared's BCS National Championship Bowl Prediction

FINALLY!

Doesn't it seem like we've waited for a year and a day for this game!?! I'm already starting to look at recruiting classes for next year and we don't even have a National Champion in college football yet...So, without further ado...

January 8, 2009 - Fedex BCS National Championship Game - Miami, FL
#2 Florida vs. #1 Oklahoma - 8:00 pm ET
The Good: What's not to like? Two Heisman trophy quarterbacks, two explosive offenses, and two very disciplined defenses. This is the right matchup for the Championship, regardless of what you read in the media (wait, I am the media, aren't I?)...Anyhow, There aren't two more balanced teams in football and their major common denominator is leadership at quarterback, which just can't be argued. Look for a VERY physical game and a game dominated by speedy special teams play and hard-hitting defense.

The Bad: USC and Utah are left on the outside looking in...And they shouldn't be. I point especially to Rick Reilly's nicely written column about any argument against Utah being the National Champion (and the fact that there isn't one). Other than that, with the BCS being what it is, this game is the best we've g0t, which really isn't all that bad.

The Ugly Prediction: I am siding with the rest of the country on this one. Florida will make Oklahoma pay for a soft secondary and the Gator D will make enough big plays to limit Bradford to a less-than-Heisman performance. Oklahoma keeps it close with an offensive line that continues to create gaps for it's fast running backs, but special teams rules the night and Florida wins that matchup, hands-down.

Florida
Rushing: 122 yards
Passing: 324 yards
Turnovers: 1

Oklahoma
Rushing: 164 yards
Passing: 210 yards
Turnovers: 2

Florida 31 - Oklahoma 26

The Path(s) to the NCAA Football National Championship

Every fan of a team in the top 10 still has aspirations of a National Championship; some are delusional, and yet some are justified. Here's a breakdown of how each team could find themselves in Miami come January.

1. Alabama
- Win out the season and beat Florida in the SEC Championship. Most pundits are picking Florida to win that game, and I have to agree with them, but Alabama's still in good position.

2. Texas Tech
- Win in Norman and then wipe the floor with Missouri in the Big 12 Championship...That's it. Easy. Their destiny is in their hands.

3. Texas
- Oklahoma beats Texas Tech and then loses to Oklahoma State...Texas wins out and beats Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. This is not a likely turn of events. Though the Longhorns are ranked above the Sooners, they are not in control of their own destiny, nor are they in good position, as referenced by the above scenario. Texas is an interesting phenomenon at #3.

4. Florida
- Win out the season and beat Alabama in the SEC Championship. Florida actually has a pretty easy path...that is, if you consider King Saban an easy path.

5. Oklahoma
- Beat Texas Tech at home and wipe the floor with Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. Sitting at number 5, Oklahoma is actually in pretty good position to jump #3 Texas and has control of their own destiny.

6. USC
- This is where it gets complicated. USC's chances hinge on the Big 12 and SEC falling within their conferences down the stretch, in addition to USC winning out the season. Here are some of the possibilities:

Big 12 Falters #1 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma AND Baylor, Texas loses to Kansas, and Oklahoma loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.
Big 12 Falters #2 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, Texas loses to Kansas, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.
Big 12 Falters #3 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and Texas loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.

SEC Falters #1 - Alabama loses to Mississippi State or Auburn and then beats Florida in the SEC Championship AND two of the three Big 12 teams ranked above USC lose one more game.
SEC Falters #2 - Florida loses to South Carolina or Florida State and then beats Alabama in the SEC Championship AND two of the three Big 12 teams ranked above USC lose one more game.

Two words: not likely.

7. Utah, 8. Penn State, 9. Boise State, and 10. Georgia
Three words: not a chance.

And there you have it - A heavyweight fight between the SEC and Big 12. And if everyone beats each other up so bad that no one is left standing, USC has a chance.

Other than that, if I'm #7-#10, I'm just hoping I don't lose to a lesser opponent and fall out of BCS contention...forget the National Championship.

Texas Tech has done it, Georgia Tech and Maryland in good position, Florida looks incredible

Some news and notes from the wild weekend of college football.

• And I quote a very well-written sports blog, "As it comes down the stretch into the fourth quarter, I expect Tech to be down by a touchdown or so, but their pass-first persona will serve it's purpose perfectly as they pass their way to a come-from-behind victory." And so it was, as Tech made it's National Championship hopes a much more realistic possibility.
• With Georgia Tech's win over Florida State, Georgia Tech and Maryland are in prime position to get into a nice little bowl game. In fact, as predicted in a very intelligent sports blog, Maryland is in great position to take the spot in the FedEx Orange Bowl. At the very least, Maryland is in control of it's own destiny now. Win out the season, and the Terps' struggles early-season are forgotten.
• Florida actually may be the best team in college football right now and if they continue to play well into December, Alabama will be in trouble in the SEC Championship. Florida should be watching the Big 12 situation closely, as a couple losses from one Big 12 team to another would clear the path for them to be back in the National Championship, as predicted in this famous sports blog.

A few shameless plugs and some great predictions...That's what this blog is all about!

Stay tuned for going over this past weekend's predictions and what it means to the BCS layout, as well as the predictions going forward. Cheers!

Willingham's Replacement, Penn State Doesn't Deserve the NC, Florida-Georgia Game Huge, Other Notes of Interest

From around the country, here's the buzz:

Rivals.com, with many supporters, believes Penn State doesn't deserve the National Championship berth...No matter what. I can't say I can argue the point with any intelligent banter. And so the uproar begins, and only moments after a Penn State win over Ohio State that makes a Nittany Lions undefeated season likely. Enough uproar, and as I have predicted earlier, Penn State, even undefeated, will be nowhere near Miami come January.

It kind of goes without saying that the winner of Texas at Texas Tech this weekend will determine the favorite for the Big 12's donation to the National Championship game, but as Chris Low from ESPN writes, Alabama may not be the shoo-in that everyone thinks, making the Georgia-Florida game just that much more meaningful. If Alabama loses even one game, he believes, there will be no time to climb back up the polls. Florida and Georgia, on the other hand, already took their beating and have begun their climb back to the top, so whoever comes out of the game in Jacksonville unscathed may be the favorite to go to Miami.

If you haven't heard about Texas Tech's new PAT kicker, read this. The kid's story could be turned into a made-for-TV-movie for sure. The question is, how does the story end?

After Ty Willingham's announcement that he will voluntarily step down as Washington's head coach at the end of the season, Dennis Dodd is already conjecturing as to who the replacement will be.

Does anyone care about the ACC right now? No? Then don't read Heather Dinich's breakdown of the ACC finishing possibilities...but if you're a college football fan at all, it's actually pretty intriguing. Even if you don't care about the ACC, read this heartwarming story about a certin Duke Blue Devil's emotional victory after the Vanderbilt upset this weekend (thanks to Heather again for this link).