Thursday, November 13, 2008

The Path(s) to the NCAA Football National Championship

Every fan of a team in the top 10 still has aspirations of a National Championship; some are delusional, and yet some are justified. Here's a breakdown of how each team could find themselves in Miami come January.

1. Alabama
- Win out the season and beat Florida in the SEC Championship. Most pundits are picking Florida to win that game, and I have to agree with them, but Alabama's still in good position.

2. Texas Tech
- Win in Norman and then wipe the floor with Missouri in the Big 12 Championship...That's it. Easy. Their destiny is in their hands.

3. Texas
- Oklahoma beats Texas Tech and then loses to Oklahoma State...Texas wins out and beats Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. This is not a likely turn of events. Though the Longhorns are ranked above the Sooners, they are not in control of their own destiny, nor are they in good position, as referenced by the above scenario. Texas is an interesting phenomenon at #3.

4. Florida
- Win out the season and beat Alabama in the SEC Championship. Florida actually has a pretty easy path...that is, if you consider King Saban an easy path.

5. Oklahoma
- Beat Texas Tech at home and wipe the floor with Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. Sitting at number 5, Oklahoma is actually in pretty good position to jump #3 Texas and has control of their own destiny.

6. USC
- This is where it gets complicated. USC's chances hinge on the Big 12 and SEC falling within their conferences down the stretch, in addition to USC winning out the season. Here are some of the possibilities:

Big 12 Falters #1 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma AND Baylor, Texas loses to Kansas, and Oklahoma loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.
Big 12 Falters #2 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, Texas loses to Kansas, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.
Big 12 Falters #3 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and Texas loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.

SEC Falters #1 - Alabama loses to Mississippi State or Auburn and then beats Florida in the SEC Championship AND two of the three Big 12 teams ranked above USC lose one more game.
SEC Falters #2 - Florida loses to South Carolina or Florida State and then beats Alabama in the SEC Championship AND two of the three Big 12 teams ranked above USC lose one more game.

Two words: not likely.

7. Utah, 8. Penn State, 9. Boise State, and 10. Georgia
Three words: not a chance.

And there you have it - A heavyweight fight between the SEC and Big 12. And if everyone beats each other up so bad that no one is left standing, USC has a chance.

Other than that, if I'm #7-#10, I'm just hoping I don't lose to a lesser opponent and fall out of BCS contention...forget the National Championship.

2 comments:

  1. I'm a Gator fan so I'm hoping they will run the board and beat Alabama in the SEC Championship game and hopefully make it to the National Championship game.

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  2. Yeah Hopefully Florida runs thr table... Good blog too.. I hope you follow my blog too

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