Ksquared's Day After New Year's BCS Bowl Predictions

Maybe the most lopsided bowl game (at least on paper), here's a rundown and prediction for what could also be the biggest upset of the year.

January 2, 2009 - Allstate Sugar Bowl - New Orleans, LA
#4 Alabama vs. #6 Utah - 8:00 pm ET
The Good: Utah is undefeated and could top Boise State's upset of Oklahoma with a win here, which will keep people watching for the first half. And if it stays close, nobody will change the channel. Utah got it's Christmas gift late as it was announced that Alabama's top offensive lineman, Andre Smith, has been suspended for this game...and though Alabama has more depth than most teams, his dissapearance could be a huge factor in opening holes for RB Glen Coffee and protecting QB Parker Wilson. Also, Utah has everything to play for and Alabama, after an amazing run that ended in dissapointment, might have trouble getting up for a less than National Championship finish. It's almost like the football Gods want this to be a close game. Because Alabama is good enough to be in the National Championship (and is just unlucky that it plays in the SEC), if Utah does somehow pull this out, there is definitely an argument that Utah is the best team in the country...Interesting case for the non-BCS schools.

The Bad: All that said, this will likely still NOT be a close game. Even with Andre Smith out, Alabama has star players at every position, including the aforementioned Coffee and Wilson, as well as the true freshman stand-out Julio Jones (can you believe we will see at LEAST two more years of this kid?). More importantly, Utah is overmatched at almost every position on the other side of the ball, too. If Utah gets over 200 yards of offense, I will be surprised. This one could end up VERY lopsided.

The Ugly Prediction: No Boise State-like love, no non-bcs school supporting argument, no David beats Goliath storyline...This won't be pretty from the get-go. Not only will Saban have his kids up for this game, but when you piss off the God of football (which Florida did), you're going to get the wrath of something evil and nasty. Utah, I pity you...May Saban have mercy on your soul.
Alabama 41 - Utah 14

Ksquared's New Year's Day BCS Bowl Predictions

As we watch bowls that take longer to say than can keep us awake (like the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl), the anticipation for the big games grows every day. And since every bowl game is almost wholly unpredictable, I will naturally try and predict them...at least, the ones that matter. First off, here are the up-and-coming New Year's Day bowls.

January 1, 2009 - The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi - Pasadena, CA
#8 Penn State vs. #5 USC - 4:30 pm ET
The Good: If asked which bowl game people are most looking forward to, besides the National Championship, this is usually the first game out of their mouths...and for good reason. USC and Penn State have both only lost one game and this classic Big Ten/Pac-10 matchup actually does have all the interworkings of a great game. Penn State's "Spread HD" offense has been pretty flawless and USC's linebacker-stacked defense has been called the best of all time by some experts. Not to mention the fact that Penn State is the "real" Linebacker-U and USC's offense has shown signs of mortality at times. Taking all of that into account with the fact that Penn State beat the team that beat USC, 45-14, and this game may surprise everyone a bit.

The Bad: Penn State barely beat an Ohio State team that got CRUSHED by USC and both of these teams lost to conference foes in very weak conferences. This game could go either way: a high-scoring game with both offenses clicking or a low-scoring game with both defenses playing up to their potential...and nobody wants to see the latter in the Rose Bowl. But it could be worse...It could go exactly as most experts think and USC could completely blow out an oversized, overmatched Penn State, just like they did to the Buckeyes. Big Ten fans, pray to the football Gods that this doesn't happen, or if it does, that Ohio State can find a way to beat Texas. Otherwise, Big Ten respect will be at a premium throughout the 2009 season.

The Ugly Prediction: To steal a line from the flamboyant Lee Corso, "Closer than the experts think!" Penn State will come to play, but since USC is basically playing a home game and in no way will overlook this Penn State team, the offense will make a couple of big plays and the defense, though giving up more points than usual, will play well enough to win. Anytime Pete Carroll has had this much time to prepare, you are asking for trouble.
USC 30 - Penn State 24

January 1, 2009 - Fedex Orange Bowl - Miami, FL
#12 Cincinnati vs. #18 Virginia Tech - 8:30 pm ET
The Good: These two teams are coming off very impressive finishes, with Virginia Tech winning one of the most topsy-turvy conferences of all time and Cincinnati surprising everyone in the country with their number-one status in the high-powered Big East. This is a great matchup on paper, as Cincinnati's offense can score at will at times and Virginia Tech's defense and special teams can give opposing teams absolute fits. Don't expect Virginia Tech to have too much success on offense, but as is the usual against ACC teams, it might not matter. This could be a very close game, and one that should be fun to watch.

The Bad: Tickets to this Orange Bowl have gone for as low as $1 on Ebay and many people may decide to go to bed early to recover from their New Year's Eve hangovers rather than watch this game. Also, if Cincinnati plays as well as it can and Virginia Tech has one of those "ACC breakdowns," this game could end-up being hugely lopsided. For the simple fact that I will be watching, I hope that's not the case.

The Ugly Prediction: "The Bad" happens and Virginia Tech is embarrassed. Cincinnati has too much firepower and too much time to prepare schemes for the Tech defense and the Hokies offense will sputter the entire game. I think the Bearcats want this game more than Virginia Tech does and it should show come New Year's evening.
Cincinnati 28 - Virginia Tech 10

Ksquared's New College Football Regular Season/Playoff Scenario - PART II

Now that we have all of the new conferences set, the next step is to determine how the scheduling works so that every team has as much chance as every other team at making the playoffs. And actually, this is fairly straightforward.

First off, because there are 12 new conferences and we are looking for an easy 12-team playoff system (very similar to the way the NFL does it), it goes to reason that the winner, and ONLY the winner, of each conference will qualify for the playoffs. In order to make sure we have a TRUE winner for each conference, every team must play every other team within their conference.

This is scheduling point #1.

Secondly, because there are ten teams to a conference and it is a true round robin, the least amount of games a team can play is nine. Obviously, this is not enough, as a regular season in college football is usually 12 (without a conference championship). I submit that instead of 12, each team play 11 games, giving each team two games that are nonconference.

This is scheduling point #2.

With only 11 games in a season instead of 12 or 13, the season can end a little earlier (or at least at the same time in late November or early December) and the playoffs can begin sooner.

This is scheduling point #3.

The layoff between the end of the season and the continuation of play is now a much smaller window and every team will end their season at exactly the same time.

This is scheduling point #4.

The playoffs will then continue throughout December and end at the beginning of January, keeping the season the same length it is now.

This is scheduling point #5.

So let's recap. With this new regular season/playoff scenario, we have done 5 things to the scheduling of college football:

1. Every team plays every other team in their conference, giving each team the same chance to make the playoffs as every other team (money, recruiting, and size of school aside...more on that later).
2. Every team gets two nonconference games in which to continue rivalries, keep renewed interest in big games between big names not in the same conference, and create new rivalries (note that these non-conference games will have an effect on three-way tie-breakers, so they DO matter...more on that later).
3. The playoffs begin in early December, keeping the window between the end of the regular season and playoffs small, in turn keeping fan and media hype high with very little break.
4. Every team ends at the same time and thus has the same time to prepare for every game (except for teams with BYE weeks, which they will earn and deserve the extra time to prepare...more on that later).
5. The entire season, from first kick to naming a National Champion, will be the same length it is now, as most fans and pundits agree that the length is fine as it is and I don't think it needs to be messed with.

The questions that arise from this new system are many, I know, and I will get to them in good time, but for now, keep rolling with me in Part III as I explain exactly how the playoff system works and how conference champions are determined when ties are present.

"Where, Oh Where, Will LeBron James Go?" Part II

As promised, here’s a run down on some of the King’s more probable options for 2010:

New York Knicks
This is the team that got the most votes in the ESPN poll and the one that has had the most talk. Knowing that LeBron James wants to win championships, I can't really see him going to New York unless they make some moves to get some better players. He's not going to leave Cleveland to go play in New York just because it's New York. He wants to win and you win with good players. Not only do they need to get players that will make LeBron feel like they could win a championship, but they also have to clear out enough CAP room to be able to pay him what he wants. The Knicks have two years to try and build a team that would fit this criteria, and as I see it, it doesn’t seem all that likely.

Euroleague Team
A Euroleague team wouldn't bring LeBron James an NBA Championship. It would, however, bring James other things such as a big fat paycheck and International fame; something I'm sure King James would enjoy, but he hasn't came right out and said it yet. During the 2008 Beijing Olympics, he did ponder, “You never know....I can't throw all my eggs in one basket. There's going to be a lot of opportunities for me in 2010 to decide if I want to stay with Cleveland or if I want to go elsewhere. Could I ever imagine [playing internationally]? No. Is it a possibility? Yes.” He was also quoted as saying, “I haven't talked to any of them at all....So it's kind of a rumor that was put out there...With the right opportunity, you never know. I love basketball. So I'll play basketball anywhere.”

One of his Olympic teammates, Carmelo Anthony, said, “If somebody throws $50 million on the table for me...We can talk.”

Another teammate, Chris Paul, said, “What would you do? Show me a person that's not going [to take the money]...Maybe Bill Gates.”

So you can see that a big pay check from a Euroleague team could easily sway a person to go overseas and play ball and though LeBron has made it clear that a championship is his main priority, a Euroleague team could still be a viable option.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is the place where LeBron James's NBA legacy has started and the place where the Cavaliers would like it to see it end, I’m sure. Lebron James has expressed the need for better players around him and the team has made moves to try and bring players in that they think would work best for him. So far, however, they haven't found the right mix to win a championship. James isn't out of Cleveland yet and if the Cavs find the players the fit in with James, then I could definitely see him staying in Cleveland.

LeBron James has said, “I am focused on the team I am on right now and winning a championship.”
He has also has said about the Cavs, “I think we have made strides since I have been here. We have gotten better every year and I think this year is probably the best team we've had since I have been here. You got to see how the season plays out. Just because you have a different team, with different players, doesn't automatically guarantee you a championship. I have to be smart about things and be patient.”

So can the Cavaliers put together that championship team before 2010 to keep James in Cleveland? That is the multi-million dollar question.

2010 is still two years away and a lot can change from now to then, but one thing will stay the same: LeBron James wants to win championships. For teams that want to acquire King James, they will have to build a championship team for him to play on. The team that builds the best team in the next two years will have the best shot at grabbing James from free agency; it’s that simple. There will be a lot for James to think about in the near future and with plenty of scenarios, it’s still anyone’s guess as to where he might end up. The safe money is on Cleveland, with his roots, his home, his family, and a huge fan support already in place, but after looking at the options, there's no telling how many other teams may jump into the mix as 2010 grows closer. You never know, he might end up on a team that isn’t even listed in that ESPN poll…Who knows…Not James, not ESPN, and definitely not me!

This blog is courtesy of Bertman. A big thank you to him!

Check out Bertman’s fresh sports blog, “Sports Never End” for more great sports info, where sports truly never end.

Ksquared's New College Football Regular Season/Playoff Scenario - PART I (continued)

As promised, below are my 12 new college football conferences.

As you will see, I kept a very even distribution of BCS and non-BCS teams, which was the top priority. Also, where it was possible to do so, I tried to keep rivalries intact by putting the two rival teams in the same conference. Lastly, I focused on location and did my best to keep all of the teams fairly close to their specific region.

This was my criteria, in order of priority:
- Ten teams to a conference
- Even ratio of BCS to non-BCS throughout all conferences
- Traditional rivalries
- Location of school

Here are the 12 new conferences, in no particular order:

North Pacific Conference (NPC)
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State
Stanford
Boise State
Idaho
Fresno State
San Jose State
San Diego State

Pacific Mountain Conference (PMC)
USC
UCLA
California
Arizona State
Arizona
Hawaii
Nevada
Utah
Utah State
UNLV

Rocky Mountain Conference (RMC)
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Colorado State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Brigham Young
Air Force

American Plains Conference (APC)
Kansas
Kansas State
Nebraska
Baylor
Texas A&M
Missouri
Tulsa
Wyoming
Arkansas
Arkansas State

Gulf Coast Conference (GCC)
LSU
Florida
Mississippi
Mississippi State
South Florida
UTEP
Houston
Rice
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe

Middle South Conference (MSC)
Alabama
Auburn
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
TCU
North Texas
Tulane
Louisiana Tech
Southern Methodist

South Atlantic Conference (SAC)
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
Florida State
South Carolina
Clemson
Southern Mississippi
Alabama-Birmingham
Troy
Middle Tennessee State

Atlantic Coastal Conference (ACC)
Virginia
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Duke
East Carolina
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Central Florida
Memphis

Middle Atlantic Conference (MAC)
Penn State
Cincinnati
Louisville
West Virginia
Wake Forest
Western Kentucky
Akron
Kent State
Marshall
Miami (OH)

Northeastern Conference (NEC)
Connecticut
Maryland
Rutgers
Boston College
Army
Navy
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Temple
Buffalo

Great Lakes Conference (GLC)
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue
Notre Dame
Ohio
Bowling Green
Toledo
Ball State

Midwestern Conference (MWC)
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Iowa
Iowa State
Illinois
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan
Central Michigan

This is definitely a work in progress (I even switched some teams and titles of conferences while transferring from paper to computer), so any feedback is welcomed and appreciated. Let me know what you think.

Ksquared's Fearless College Football Predictions - Championship Week

The culmination of an entire season comes down to this day for many teams and there has never been more on the line as far as the National Championship is concerned. Here's who I think parties the night away:

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Florida - 4:00 pm ET - Atlanta, GA
My Take: Percy Harvin's loss is a MUCH bigger impact than the critics are making it out to be. His speed and athleticism is unmatched...I don't care who else is on the Gators roster. That said, Florida is playing all around football better than anyone in the country right now, even better than Alabama. If Florida can hold Alabama to under 125 total yards rushing, they will win. If not, and Coffee and Ingram go nuts, Parker Wilson will have passing lanes and Alabama scores more points on Florida than anyone has this year.
My Prediction: Alabama shocks the nation, Coffee runs like a madman, and Saban assures himself a spot in Alabama history
Alabama 32 - Florida 28

#20 Missouri vs. #2 Oklahoma - 8:00 pm ET - Kansas City, MO
My Take: Missouri is PUMPED for this game as nobody in the country is giving them a chance to win this one.
My Prediction: I agree with the country
Oklahoma 41 - Missouri 30

#5 USC at UCLA - 4:30 pm ET
My Take: The best behind-the-scenes story in this game is both rival coaches giving up one timeout so USC is able to wear dark-color jerseys. The reason that's the biggest story of the game is because it's already been decided.
My Prediction: UCLA gets off the bus...and then gets back on
USC 49 - UCLA 7

#13 Cincinnati at Hawaii - 11:30 pm ET
My Take: Cincinnati can't be looking past this game. Hawaii may not have Colt Brennan, but if they're game is clicking, they can still put up points, especially at home. I sense a possible upset here.
My Prediction: Brian Kelly will have his boys ready to play...No upset
Cincinnati 38 - Hawaii 24

#17 Boston College vs. #25 Virginia Tech - 1:00 pm ET - Tampa, FL
My Take: Great game...maybe the second best game of the day. Two stout defenses and two quarterbacks with low expectations at the beginning of the season who have come on strong as of late. FINALLY, this conference is decided!
My Prediction: Both defenses win their battles, but Boston College gets one more field goal
Boston College 13 - Virginia Tech 10

#23 Pittsburgh at Connecticut - 12:00 pm ET
My Take: Two of the best running backs in the country go head-to-head and both should have big days. This will be a fun game to watch and really could go wither way. Too bad for Pitt that it's in Connecticut.
My Prediction: Brown outruns McCoy as Connecticut's offensive line has it's best blocking game of the season
Connecticut 29 - Pittsburgh 21

BONUS PICKS

East Carolina at Tulsa - 12:00 pm ET
My Take: The fact that this game is even relevant speaks volumes about these two programs. It truly could go either way here, but I think home field advantage makes a difference.
My Prediction: Tulsa gets the crowd into it early and East Carolina ends the season 180-degrees from how they started
Tulsa 52 - East Carolina 38

Navy vs. Army - 12:00 pm ET - Philadelphi, PA
My Take: Army wants this SO bad...
My Prediction: Too bad...Navy runs for over 250 yards...again
Navy 28 - Army 17

Arizona State at Arizona - 8:00 pm ET
My Take: This was supposed to be a battle for second or third place in the PAC-10...Instead, ASU's just trying to get into a bowl game. No matter, this will be a total dog-fight, as this is one of the most bitter rivalries in college football. If Rudy Carpenter can actually complete a pass, the Sun Devils have a chance.
My Prediction: Arizona State saves their offense for the last game of the season and actually moves the ball. Arizona plays well, but can't finish and misses a last-second field goal
Arizona State 23 - Arizona 21

South Florida at West Virginia - 8:00 pm ET
My Take: Just like the Duel in the Desert, this was supposed to be a HUGE game with big conference implications. Nope. People across the nation are pissed off that they have to decide between Arizona State-Arizona and South Florida-West Virginia for their Saturday night game.
My Prediction: Even though nobody is watching from home, there is a lot of excitement in Morgantown and South Florida ends a bad season on a bad note
West Virginia 24 - South Florida 17

Okay everyone, that's it for the regular season! I hope you all enjoyed the predictions and the witty banter. Come on back for my bowl predictions once they are announced. And as always, be safe...Cheers!

Ksquared's New College Football Regular Season/Playoff Scenario - PART I

Okay, I know there are a lot of opinions out there on the topic of a playoff system in college football, but I have a problem with all of them for one simple reason: they are all based on the current college football landscape. There's no way we can figure out this crazy season we call college football using today's normal thought processes. Hence, my playoff system (and yes, it is a playoff system) is based on a whole mess of changes, beginning with the conferences themselves and moving to change the way we see the regular season.

If I had the power, here's what I would do:

1. NEW CONFERENCES
First and foremost, with the way the conferences are broken out, we have too much segregation of "good" and "bad" conferences (BCS vs. Non-BCS). I would lump all of these teams together.

Currently, we have 11 conferences with 1 independent bundle (12 conferences total, technically). Half (6) of these conferences are BCS teams, while half (6) are not for a total of 65 BCS teams and 55 non-BCS teams.

Now, let's make ALL of them BCS teams. This is where it gets a little complicated. Take the 55 non-BCS teams and distribute them as follows:
- ACC gets 8 teams
- Big 12 gets 8 teams
- Big East gets 12 teams
- Big Ten gets 9 teams
- PAC-10 gets 10 teams
- SEC gets 8 teams

If you do the math, EVERY conference has 20 teams.

Now, let's make these conferences more manageable. Create 12 NEW conferences that each have 10 teams, with each conference getting a very similar ratio of the BCS teams and the non-BCS teams (though we do NOT refer to teams this way anymore since all teams are created equal from now on).

What we have just done is even the playing field. I understand that there are many considerations to be figured in with this new system of conferences (size of schools, location of schools, money, recruiting, etc.), but this can be overcome with the right coaching and administrative backing (see Boise State).

In fact, at first glance, it may seem like this new system hurts the non-BCS teams, but in reality, coaches and alumni from the BCS schools would probably be more upset, as they can no longer play the "Big Conference-Big Money-Big TV exposure" card on the recruiting trail and will now have to seriously compete against "smaller" schools.

Let's look at an example of two of the new conferences (I will publish ALL of Ksquared's new conferences later):

Ksquared's MSC (Middle South Conference)
Alabama
Auburn
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Kentucky
TCU
North Texas
Tulane
Louisiana Tech
Southern Methodist

Ksquared's GCC (Gulf Coast Conference)
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Florida
South Florida
UTEP
Rice
Houston
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe

At this point, I can already sense the skepticism, but just hold your horses...It will all begin to become clear how this system is beneficial in the long run as the new breakdown continues. Stay tuned for the next new element, scheduling.

Part II will go over the new regular season schedule with these new conferences in play.