Ksquared's New Year's Day BCS Bowl Predictions

As we watch bowls that take longer to say than can keep us awake (like the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl), the anticipation for the big games grows every day. And since every bowl game is almost wholly unpredictable, I will naturally try and predict them...at least, the ones that matter. First off, here are the up-and-coming New Year's Day bowls.

January 1, 2009 - The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi - Pasadena, CA
#8 Penn State vs. #5 USC - 4:30 pm ET
The Good: If asked which bowl game people are most looking forward to, besides the National Championship, this is usually the first game out of their mouths...and for good reason. USC and Penn State have both only lost one game and this classic Big Ten/Pac-10 matchup actually does have all the interworkings of a great game. Penn State's "Spread HD" offense has been pretty flawless and USC's linebacker-stacked defense has been called the best of all time by some experts. Not to mention the fact that Penn State is the "real" Linebacker-U and USC's offense has shown signs of mortality at times. Taking all of that into account with the fact that Penn State beat the team that beat USC, 45-14, and this game may surprise everyone a bit.

The Bad: Penn State barely beat an Ohio State team that got CRUSHED by USC and both of these teams lost to conference foes in very weak conferences. This game could go either way: a high-scoring game with both offenses clicking or a low-scoring game with both defenses playing up to their potential...and nobody wants to see the latter in the Rose Bowl. But it could be worse...It could go exactly as most experts think and USC could completely blow out an oversized, overmatched Penn State, just like they did to the Buckeyes. Big Ten fans, pray to the football Gods that this doesn't happen, or if it does, that Ohio State can find a way to beat Texas. Otherwise, Big Ten respect will be at a premium throughout the 2009 season.

The Ugly Prediction: To steal a line from the flamboyant Lee Corso, "Closer than the experts think!" Penn State will come to play, but since USC is basically playing a home game and in no way will overlook this Penn State team, the offense will make a couple of big plays and the defense, though giving up more points than usual, will play well enough to win. Anytime Pete Carroll has had this much time to prepare, you are asking for trouble.
USC 30 - Penn State 24

January 1, 2009 - Fedex Orange Bowl - Miami, FL
#12 Cincinnati vs. #18 Virginia Tech - 8:30 pm ET
The Good: These two teams are coming off very impressive finishes, with Virginia Tech winning one of the most topsy-turvy conferences of all time and Cincinnati surprising everyone in the country with their number-one status in the high-powered Big East. This is a great matchup on paper, as Cincinnati's offense can score at will at times and Virginia Tech's defense and special teams can give opposing teams absolute fits. Don't expect Virginia Tech to have too much success on offense, but as is the usual against ACC teams, it might not matter. This could be a very close game, and one that should be fun to watch.

The Bad: Tickets to this Orange Bowl have gone for as low as $1 on Ebay and many people may decide to go to bed early to recover from their New Year's Eve hangovers rather than watch this game. Also, if Cincinnati plays as well as it can and Virginia Tech has one of those "ACC breakdowns," this game could end-up being hugely lopsided. For the simple fact that I will be watching, I hope that's not the case.

The Ugly Prediction: "The Bad" happens and Virginia Tech is embarrassed. Cincinnati has too much firepower and too much time to prepare schemes for the Tech defense and the Hokies offense will sputter the entire game. I think the Bearcats want this game more than Virginia Tech does and it should show come New Year's evening.
Cincinnati 28 - Virginia Tech 10

The Path(s) to the NCAA Football National Championship

Every fan of a team in the top 10 still has aspirations of a National Championship; some are delusional, and yet some are justified. Here's a breakdown of how each team could find themselves in Miami come January.

1. Alabama
- Win out the season and beat Florida in the SEC Championship. Most pundits are picking Florida to win that game, and I have to agree with them, but Alabama's still in good position.

2. Texas Tech
- Win in Norman and then wipe the floor with Missouri in the Big 12 Championship...That's it. Easy. Their destiny is in their hands.

3. Texas
- Oklahoma beats Texas Tech and then loses to Oklahoma State...Texas wins out and beats Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. This is not a likely turn of events. Though the Longhorns are ranked above the Sooners, they are not in control of their own destiny, nor are they in good position, as referenced by the above scenario. Texas is an interesting phenomenon at #3.

4. Florida
- Win out the season and beat Alabama in the SEC Championship. Florida actually has a pretty easy path...that is, if you consider King Saban an easy path.

5. Oklahoma
- Beat Texas Tech at home and wipe the floor with Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. Sitting at number 5, Oklahoma is actually in pretty good position to jump #3 Texas and has control of their own destiny.

6. USC
- This is where it gets complicated. USC's chances hinge on the Big 12 and SEC falling within their conferences down the stretch, in addition to USC winning out the season. Here are some of the possibilities:

Big 12 Falters #1 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma AND Baylor, Texas loses to Kansas, and Oklahoma loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.
Big 12 Falters #2 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, Texas loses to Kansas, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.
Big 12 Falters #3 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and Texas loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.

SEC Falters #1 - Alabama loses to Mississippi State or Auburn and then beats Florida in the SEC Championship AND two of the three Big 12 teams ranked above USC lose one more game.
SEC Falters #2 - Florida loses to South Carolina or Florida State and then beats Alabama in the SEC Championship AND two of the three Big 12 teams ranked above USC lose one more game.

Two words: not likely.

7. Utah, 8. Penn State, 9. Boise State, and 10. Georgia
Three words: not a chance.

And there you have it - A heavyweight fight between the SEC and Big 12. And if everyone beats each other up so bad that no one is left standing, USC has a chance.

Other than that, if I'm #7-#10, I'm just hoping I don't lose to a lesser opponent and fall out of BCS contention...forget the National Championship.

Some Quick Notes From Around the College Football World

• Though I have Maryland winning against Virginia Tech this weekend, I have become somewhat doubtful with reports that Da'Rell Scott will not be even close to 100% come Saturday. He is an integral part of keeping the Terps offense balanced and without him churning for tough yards, the Hokies stout defense will have a field day picking off passes in deep coverage. Nonetheless, I'm sticking with my pick, hoping the offensive line will step it up just a notch knowing that Scott will need some running roon to be successful.
• Another worrisome pick that comes to mind is my upset of California over the much-touted USC. With Riley out again this week (and it looks like that is the case), if the pick-happy Longshore comes to play, my pick won't jsut be wrong, it will look ridiculous. Longshore has zero turnovers and I maintain my pick (which I am doing), but even one turnover and I think USC takes this game.
• I expect Terelle Pryor and the Buckeyes to respond with resounding confidence against Northwestern this Saturday. Though bye weeks have not been good to them in the past, this week is different...The Buckeyes are pissed (and more unified than ever)...And I do not believe that the same uneasy Pryor we saw two weeks ago will be playing against the Wildcats.