Ksquared's New Year's Day BCS Bowl Predictions

As we watch bowls that take longer to say than can keep us awake (like the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl), the anticipation for the big games grows every day. And since every bowl game is almost wholly unpredictable, I will naturally try and predict them...at least, the ones that matter. First off, here are the up-and-coming New Year's Day bowls.

January 1, 2009 - The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi - Pasadena, CA
#8 Penn State vs. #5 USC - 4:30 pm ET
The Good: If asked which bowl game people are most looking forward to, besides the National Championship, this is usually the first game out of their mouths...and for good reason. USC and Penn State have both only lost one game and this classic Big Ten/Pac-10 matchup actually does have all the interworkings of a great game. Penn State's "Spread HD" offense has been pretty flawless and USC's linebacker-stacked defense has been called the best of all time by some experts. Not to mention the fact that Penn State is the "real" Linebacker-U and USC's offense has shown signs of mortality at times. Taking all of that into account with the fact that Penn State beat the team that beat USC, 45-14, and this game may surprise everyone a bit.

The Bad: Penn State barely beat an Ohio State team that got CRUSHED by USC and both of these teams lost to conference foes in very weak conferences. This game could go either way: a high-scoring game with both offenses clicking or a low-scoring game with both defenses playing up to their potential...and nobody wants to see the latter in the Rose Bowl. But it could be worse...It could go exactly as most experts think and USC could completely blow out an oversized, overmatched Penn State, just like they did to the Buckeyes. Big Ten fans, pray to the football Gods that this doesn't happen, or if it does, that Ohio State can find a way to beat Texas. Otherwise, Big Ten respect will be at a premium throughout the 2009 season.

The Ugly Prediction: To steal a line from the flamboyant Lee Corso, "Closer than the experts think!" Penn State will come to play, but since USC is basically playing a home game and in no way will overlook this Penn State team, the offense will make a couple of big plays and the defense, though giving up more points than usual, will play well enough to win. Anytime Pete Carroll has had this much time to prepare, you are asking for trouble.
USC 30 - Penn State 24

January 1, 2009 - Fedex Orange Bowl - Miami, FL
#12 Cincinnati vs. #18 Virginia Tech - 8:30 pm ET
The Good: These two teams are coming off very impressive finishes, with Virginia Tech winning one of the most topsy-turvy conferences of all time and Cincinnati surprising everyone in the country with their number-one status in the high-powered Big East. This is a great matchup on paper, as Cincinnati's offense can score at will at times and Virginia Tech's defense and special teams can give opposing teams absolute fits. Don't expect Virginia Tech to have too much success on offense, but as is the usual against ACC teams, it might not matter. This could be a very close game, and one that should be fun to watch.

The Bad: Tickets to this Orange Bowl have gone for as low as $1 on Ebay and many people may decide to go to bed early to recover from their New Year's Eve hangovers rather than watch this game. Also, if Cincinnati plays as well as it can and Virginia Tech has one of those "ACC breakdowns," this game could end-up being hugely lopsided. For the simple fact that I will be watching, I hope that's not the case.

The Ugly Prediction: "The Bad" happens and Virginia Tech is embarrassed. Cincinnati has too much firepower and too much time to prepare schemes for the Tech defense and the Hokies offense will sputter the entire game. I think the Bearcats want this game more than Virginia Tech does and it should show come New Year's evening.
Cincinnati 28 - Virginia Tech 10

Ksquared's New College Football Regular Season/Playoff Scenario - PART I

Okay, I know there are a lot of opinions out there on the topic of a playoff system in college football, but I have a problem with all of them for one simple reason: they are all based on the current college football landscape. There's no way we can figure out this crazy season we call college football using today's normal thought processes. Hence, my playoff system (and yes, it is a playoff system) is based on a whole mess of changes, beginning with the conferences themselves and moving to change the way we see the regular season.

If I had the power, here's what I would do:

1. NEW CONFERENCES
First and foremost, with the way the conferences are broken out, we have too much segregation of "good" and "bad" conferences (BCS vs. Non-BCS). I would lump all of these teams together.

Currently, we have 11 conferences with 1 independent bundle (12 conferences total, technically). Half (6) of these conferences are BCS teams, while half (6) are not for a total of 65 BCS teams and 55 non-BCS teams.

Now, let's make ALL of them BCS teams. This is where it gets a little complicated. Take the 55 non-BCS teams and distribute them as follows:
- ACC gets 8 teams
- Big 12 gets 8 teams
- Big East gets 12 teams
- Big Ten gets 9 teams
- PAC-10 gets 10 teams
- SEC gets 8 teams

If you do the math, EVERY conference has 20 teams.

Now, let's make these conferences more manageable. Create 12 NEW conferences that each have 10 teams, with each conference getting a very similar ratio of the BCS teams and the non-BCS teams (though we do NOT refer to teams this way anymore since all teams are created equal from now on).

What we have just done is even the playing field. I understand that there are many considerations to be figured in with this new system of conferences (size of schools, location of schools, money, recruiting, etc.), but this can be overcome with the right coaching and administrative backing (see Boise State).

In fact, at first glance, it may seem like this new system hurts the non-BCS teams, but in reality, coaches and alumni from the BCS schools would probably be more upset, as they can no longer play the "Big Conference-Big Money-Big TV exposure" card on the recruiting trail and will now have to seriously compete against "smaller" schools.

Let's look at an example of two of the new conferences (I will publish ALL of Ksquared's new conferences later):

Ksquared's MSC (Middle South Conference)
Alabama
Auburn
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Kentucky
TCU
North Texas
Tulane
Louisiana Tech
Southern Methodist

Ksquared's GCC (Gulf Coast Conference)
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Florida
South Florida
UTEP
Rice
Houston
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe

At this point, I can already sense the skepticism, but just hold your horses...It will all begin to become clear how this system is beneficial in the long run as the new breakdown continues. Stay tuned for the next new element, scheduling.

Part II will go over the new regular season schedule with these new conferences in play.

NCAA Football Bowl Predictions

Per a GREAT request, I offer my first Bowl Predictions of the season. For sure as a top 5 team will fall, I will be amending this list, but as it stands, here's my take.

Let's start with the snooze-fests and work our way to the National Championship:

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force vs. Nevada
St. Petersburg Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Marshall
Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl: TCU vs. Arizona
Eagle Bank Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. Navy
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. UTEP
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: BYU vs. Hawaii
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Stanford vs. Fresno State
Motor City Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Central Michigan
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Boston College vs. Cincinnati
Champs Sports: Virginia vs. Northwestern
Emerald Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Oregon State
Independence Bowl: Kansas State vs. Tennessee
PapaJohns.com Bowl: South Florida vs. Kentucky
Valero Alamo Bowl: Illinois vs. Missouri
Roady's Humanitarian Bowl: San Jose State vs. Wake Forest
Texas Bowl: Colorado vs. Rice
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: Utah vs. East Carolina
Brut Sun: Nebraska vs. California
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl: Florida State vs. Ole Miss
Insight Bowl: Iowa vs. Kansas
Chick-fil-a Bowl: North Carolina vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Vanderbilt
Capital One Bowl: Minnesota vs. LSU
Konica Minolta Gator Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame
AT&T Cotton Bowl: Georgia vs. Texas Tech
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Tulsa vs. South Carolina
International Bowl: Connecticut vs. Western Michigan
GMAC Bowl: Houston vs. Ball State

Rose Bowl presented by Citi: Ohio State vs. USC
Fedex Orange Bowl: Maryland vs. West Virginia
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Texas
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
Fedex BCS National Championship Game: Florida vs. Penn State

Random Notes:
Texas Tech beats Texas, Texas Tech loses a game or two, Florida beats Georgia, Florida wins SEC Championship by beating Alabama...Done.

If what I predict happens, people will probably be calling the Sugar Bowl the true National Championship.

This could be the season of rematches with Boise State-Oklahoma and Ohio State-USC.

The ACC isn't very strong top-to-bottom against other conferences, but they are definitely the hardest conference to figure out to this point. The next two weeks should clear things up a bit.

Buckeyes, Penn State, Lose-Lose Situation Tonight?

Every college football fan in the country has heard the rumblings: the Big Ten is weak.

Whether you are an SEC fan, a Big 12 fan, or just a college football fan in general, you have seen some of the better teams, possibly your team, get shut out of the national championship because of an undefeated or one-loss Big Ten team. Most fans outside of the Big Ten feel that because their conferences are stronger and their schedules tougher, weaker and less deserving teams are showing up to do battle in the Big Game, and to a point, I can't argue against those feelings.

Which brings me to the question many people are asking before tonight's football action: What will become of the BCS situation after the Penn State-Ohio State game?

My answer will delight SEC, Big 12, Pac-10, WAC, MWC, ACC, and Big East fans country-wide. Penn State and Ohio State will BOTH lose tonight, and here's why...

Result #1: Penn State defeats Ohio State BIG (more than 15 points)
Effect: Ohio State still can't win big games and Penn State just beat an overrated Ohio State team, giving Penn State exactly zero quality wins on the year. Penn State stays at #3, but drops when strength of schedule really starts to come into play at the end of the season. USC has the same problem, so they're in trouble, but Alabama, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia, LSU, and Oklahoma State all have a shot of jumping Penn State if any of them can stay at one-loss or less. In this scenario, Penn State could make it to the National Championship, putting a Big Ten team there for a third straight year, but even in best-case situation for the Big Ten, which this is, I predict the National Championship will be SEC vs. Big 12. Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State finally feels the effects of losing big to two SEC teams in two National Championships in a row.

Result #2: Penn State defeats Ohio State CLOSE (less than 15 points)
Effect: Ohio State still can't win big games and Penn State just beat a mediocre Ohio State team who got beat down by USC and is strugling behind a freshman quarterback who has potential, but a lot of growth to come. Penn State stays at #3, and on down the line, even going undefeated, voters trump the computers and vote a one-loss USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia, or Oklahoma State above them. Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State finally feels the effects of losing big to two SEC teams in two National Championships in a row.

Result #3: Ohio State defeats Penn State CLOSE (less than 15 points)
Effect: Penn State was overrated and Ohio State plays a schedule full of cupcakes. Everyone references the USC game on Sept. 13th to prove that no matter what, Ohio State can not be ranked above USC, and since USC has a bad loss to Oregon State and also plays in a currently-weak conference, voters keep USC capped at #2 or #3 and Ohio State never goes above #4 (even if the computers have them #2). Ohio State goes to the Rose Bowl where they get a rematch with USC or play a two-loss SEC or Big 12 team and have a chance to start to rebuild their reputation with a win. The next year, they are ranked between 10 and 20 in the polls.

Result #4: Ohio State defeats Penn State BIG (more than 15 points)
Effect: Penn State was overrated and Ohio State plays a schedule full of cupcakes. Everyone references the USC game on Sept. 13th to prove that no matter what, Ohio State can not be ranked above USC, and since USC has a bad loss to Oregon State and also plays in a currently-weak conference, voters keep USC capped at #2 or #3 and Ohio State never goes above #4 (even if the computers have them #2). Here's where Robert Frost's "The Road Not Taken" makes all the difference. Win close and you've done nothing to redeem yourself...Win big and you have started on the road less traveled - the road to winning big in big games - the road to redemption. Instead of starting their reputation-rebuild in the Rose Bowl, Ohio State gets its second big win against a good SEC or Big 12 team and the turn-around occurs. The next year, they are again ranked in the top 10, and possibly top 5, in the preseason polls and some of the national noise dies down.

Final Results: There is very little chance of a Big Ten team arriving in Miami and even if they do, if Penn State loses, the national rally cry against the Big Ten will only get louder. The Big Ten will continue to suffer from a negative image perception across the country. The only hope if you're a Big Ten fan are quality wins against good bowl teams across the board, which means Minnesota and Northwestern have never been more important to the Big Ten's reputation.

Here's how I see it playing out:

• Penn State or Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
• The other of Penn State/Ohio State in the Capital One Bowl
• Minnesota and Northwestern both in decent bowl games

The perceptual upswing begins if all four of these teams win their bowl games. I realize that this is an extreme statement, but anything less just gives the rest of the country more fuel for the fire.

If you're a Big Ten fan, pray that whoever wins this game wins it BIG and that the rest of the Big Ten continues to win. Anything short isn't the road less traveled by.

The Most important Top 25 in College Football...mine

Here's how I see it as of right this second. Note that this could change at any moment...This is college football after all.

And I did NOT do a preseason poll, so I am not influenced by previous hopes or predictions. Let that be known.

Top 25 as seen through the eyes of Ksquared
1. Alabama - How could you put God Saban below anyone right now?
2. Oklahoma - A popular #1, but I think to this point, the Tide has proven more.
3. Missouri - If their defense was a little better, I would have them above Oklahoma.
4. Texas - They look great, but can they win out with McCoy being their leading rusher?
5. LSU - If a top 5 team could possibly fly under the radar, they are doing it.
6. Texas Tech - Same comment as Missouri - Tech, you need to tighten up on D.
7. Vanderbilt - I like these guys...a lot. They prove that T-E-A-M is greater than I.
8. Georgia - They're still a great team, but they need to win out to stay in the top 10.
9. USC - Another great team that shouldn't have lost and MUST win out to stay afloat.
10. Penn State - I don't think they are as good as everyone thinks they are, but we'll see.
11. Utah - They haven't beaten a GREAT team, but they do have some good gritty wins.
12. Ohio State - A solid team, if not erratic, and can only get better under Pryor.
13. Oklahoma State - Talk about an explosive team, the energy these guys have is incredible.
14. Boise State - They're doing it again. Too bad their coach will find a better job next year.
15. Florida - How is this offense NOT producing??? I have no clue, but it's not.
16. BYU - The last game of the season will tell all...and I have Utah pulling it out.
17. South Florida - Tough loss to Pitt, but by the end of the season, it shouldn't be a bad loss.
18. Virginia Tech - They haven't impressed me and I don't think they'll be this high for too long.
19. Michigan State - Ringer makes Hoyer look better and hence the Spartans are contenders.
20. North Carolina - This team is GOOD. They beat what is a very good UCONN team.
21. Ball State - They look phenomenal...Navy and Indiana are no North Texas.
22. Pittsburgh - They are starting to become what everyone thought they'd be. Watch out.
23. Tulsa - We'll never know how good they are...they don't play a good team all season.
24. Kansas - That loss to South Florida looks killer now...Reesing hasn't looked too solid.
25. California - I know they beat Michigan State, but I still don't think they're the better team.

There are some conference patterns, for sure...and it is not coincidence. You will notice a lot of the Big 12 and SEC teams up top and you'll see a lot of the ACC and Big East in the bottom half. That's the way it should be, in my book.

Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Big Ten - 3
ACC, Big East, PAC 10, Mnt. West- 2
MAC, CUSA, WAC- 1