Ksquared's BCS National Championship Bowl Prediction

FINALLY!

Doesn't it seem like we've waited for a year and a day for this game!?! I'm already starting to look at recruiting classes for next year and we don't even have a National Champion in college football yet...So, without further ado...

January 8, 2009 - Fedex BCS National Championship Game - Miami, FL
#2 Florida vs. #1 Oklahoma - 8:00 pm ET
The Good: What's not to like? Two Heisman trophy quarterbacks, two explosive offenses, and two very disciplined defenses. This is the right matchup for the Championship, regardless of what you read in the media (wait, I am the media, aren't I?)...Anyhow, There aren't two more balanced teams in football and their major common denominator is leadership at quarterback, which just can't be argued. Look for a VERY physical game and a game dominated by speedy special teams play and hard-hitting defense.

The Bad: USC and Utah are left on the outside looking in...And they shouldn't be. I point especially to Rick Reilly's nicely written column about any argument against Utah being the National Champion (and the fact that there isn't one). Other than that, with the BCS being what it is, this game is the best we've g0t, which really isn't all that bad.

The Ugly Prediction: I am siding with the rest of the country on this one. Florida will make Oklahoma pay for a soft secondary and the Gator D will make enough big plays to limit Bradford to a less-than-Heisman performance. Oklahoma keeps it close with an offensive line that continues to create gaps for it's fast running backs, but special teams rules the night and Florida wins that matchup, hands-down.

Florida
Rushing: 122 yards
Passing: 324 yards
Turnovers: 1

Oklahoma
Rushing: 164 yards
Passing: 210 yards
Turnovers: 2

Florida 31 - Oklahoma 26

Ksquared's Day After New Year's BCS Bowl Predictions

Maybe the most lopsided bowl game (at least on paper), here's a rundown and prediction for what could also be the biggest upset of the year.

January 2, 2009 - Allstate Sugar Bowl - New Orleans, LA
#4 Alabama vs. #6 Utah - 8:00 pm ET
The Good: Utah is undefeated and could top Boise State's upset of Oklahoma with a win here, which will keep people watching for the first half. And if it stays close, nobody will change the channel. Utah got it's Christmas gift late as it was announced that Alabama's top offensive lineman, Andre Smith, has been suspended for this game...and though Alabama has more depth than most teams, his dissapearance could be a huge factor in opening holes for RB Glen Coffee and protecting QB Parker Wilson. Also, Utah has everything to play for and Alabama, after an amazing run that ended in dissapointment, might have trouble getting up for a less than National Championship finish. It's almost like the football Gods want this to be a close game. Because Alabama is good enough to be in the National Championship (and is just unlucky that it plays in the SEC), if Utah does somehow pull this out, there is definitely an argument that Utah is the best team in the country...Interesting case for the non-BCS schools.

The Bad: All that said, this will likely still NOT be a close game. Even with Andre Smith out, Alabama has star players at every position, including the aforementioned Coffee and Wilson, as well as the true freshman stand-out Julio Jones (can you believe we will see at LEAST two more years of this kid?). More importantly, Utah is overmatched at almost every position on the other side of the ball, too. If Utah gets over 200 yards of offense, I will be surprised. This one could end up VERY lopsided.

The Ugly Prediction: No Boise State-like love, no non-bcs school supporting argument, no David beats Goliath storyline...This won't be pretty from the get-go. Not only will Saban have his kids up for this game, but when you piss off the God of football (which Florida did), you're going to get the wrath of something evil and nasty. Utah, I pity you...May Saban have mercy on your soul.
Alabama 41 - Utah 14

Ksquared's New College Football Regular Season/Playoff Scenario - PART I

Okay, I know there are a lot of opinions out there on the topic of a playoff system in college football, but I have a problem with all of them for one simple reason: they are all based on the current college football landscape. There's no way we can figure out this crazy season we call college football using today's normal thought processes. Hence, my playoff system (and yes, it is a playoff system) is based on a whole mess of changes, beginning with the conferences themselves and moving to change the way we see the regular season.

If I had the power, here's what I would do:

1. NEW CONFERENCES
First and foremost, with the way the conferences are broken out, we have too much segregation of "good" and "bad" conferences (BCS vs. Non-BCS). I would lump all of these teams together.

Currently, we have 11 conferences with 1 independent bundle (12 conferences total, technically). Half (6) of these conferences are BCS teams, while half (6) are not for a total of 65 BCS teams and 55 non-BCS teams.

Now, let's make ALL of them BCS teams. This is where it gets a little complicated. Take the 55 non-BCS teams and distribute them as follows:
- ACC gets 8 teams
- Big 12 gets 8 teams
- Big East gets 12 teams
- Big Ten gets 9 teams
- PAC-10 gets 10 teams
- SEC gets 8 teams

If you do the math, EVERY conference has 20 teams.

Now, let's make these conferences more manageable. Create 12 NEW conferences that each have 10 teams, with each conference getting a very similar ratio of the BCS teams and the non-BCS teams (though we do NOT refer to teams this way anymore since all teams are created equal from now on).

What we have just done is even the playing field. I understand that there are many considerations to be figured in with this new system of conferences (size of schools, location of schools, money, recruiting, etc.), but this can be overcome with the right coaching and administrative backing (see Boise State).

In fact, at first glance, it may seem like this new system hurts the non-BCS teams, but in reality, coaches and alumni from the BCS schools would probably be more upset, as they can no longer play the "Big Conference-Big Money-Big TV exposure" card on the recruiting trail and will now have to seriously compete against "smaller" schools.

Let's look at an example of two of the new conferences (I will publish ALL of Ksquared's new conferences later):

Ksquared's MSC (Middle South Conference)
Alabama
Auburn
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Kentucky
TCU
North Texas
Tulane
Louisiana Tech
Southern Methodist

Ksquared's GCC (Gulf Coast Conference)
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Florida
South Florida
UTEP
Rice
Houston
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe

At this point, I can already sense the skepticism, but just hold your horses...It will all begin to become clear how this system is beneficial in the long run as the new breakdown continues. Stay tuned for the next new element, scheduling.

Part II will go over the new regular season schedule with these new conferences in play.

The Path(s) to the NCAA Football National Championship

Every fan of a team in the top 10 still has aspirations of a National Championship; some are delusional, and yet some are justified. Here's a breakdown of how each team could find themselves in Miami come January.

1. Alabama
- Win out the season and beat Florida in the SEC Championship. Most pundits are picking Florida to win that game, and I have to agree with them, but Alabama's still in good position.

2. Texas Tech
- Win in Norman and then wipe the floor with Missouri in the Big 12 Championship...That's it. Easy. Their destiny is in their hands.

3. Texas
- Oklahoma beats Texas Tech and then loses to Oklahoma State...Texas wins out and beats Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. This is not a likely turn of events. Though the Longhorns are ranked above the Sooners, they are not in control of their own destiny, nor are they in good position, as referenced by the above scenario. Texas is an interesting phenomenon at #3.

4. Florida
- Win out the season and beat Alabama in the SEC Championship. Florida actually has a pretty easy path...that is, if you consider King Saban an easy path.

5. Oklahoma
- Beat Texas Tech at home and wipe the floor with Missouri in the Big 12 Championship. Sitting at number 5, Oklahoma is actually in pretty good position to jump #3 Texas and has control of their own destiny.

6. USC
- This is where it gets complicated. USC's chances hinge on the Big 12 and SEC falling within their conferences down the stretch, in addition to USC winning out the season. Here are some of the possibilities:

Big 12 Falters #1 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma AND Baylor, Texas loses to Kansas, and Oklahoma loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.
Big 12 Falters #2 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, Texas loses to Kansas, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.
Big 12 Falters #3 - Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and Texas loses to Missouri in the Big 12 Championship.

SEC Falters #1 - Alabama loses to Mississippi State or Auburn and then beats Florida in the SEC Championship AND two of the three Big 12 teams ranked above USC lose one more game.
SEC Falters #2 - Florida loses to South Carolina or Florida State and then beats Alabama in the SEC Championship AND two of the three Big 12 teams ranked above USC lose one more game.

Two words: not likely.

7. Utah, 8. Penn State, 9. Boise State, and 10. Georgia
Three words: not a chance.

And there you have it - A heavyweight fight between the SEC and Big 12. And if everyone beats each other up so bad that no one is left standing, USC has a chance.

Other than that, if I'm #7-#10, I'm just hoping I don't lose to a lesser opponent and fall out of BCS contention...forget the National Championship.

Texas Tech has done it, Georgia Tech and Maryland in good position, Florida looks incredible

Some news and notes from the wild weekend of college football.

• And I quote a very well-written sports blog, "As it comes down the stretch into the fourth quarter, I expect Tech to be down by a touchdown or so, but their pass-first persona will serve it's purpose perfectly as they pass their way to a come-from-behind victory." And so it was, as Tech made it's National Championship hopes a much more realistic possibility.
• With Georgia Tech's win over Florida State, Georgia Tech and Maryland are in prime position to get into a nice little bowl game. In fact, as predicted in a very intelligent sports blog, Maryland is in great position to take the spot in the FedEx Orange Bowl. At the very least, Maryland is in control of it's own destiny now. Win out the season, and the Terps' struggles early-season are forgotten.
• Florida actually may be the best team in college football right now and if they continue to play well into December, Alabama will be in trouble in the SEC Championship. Florida should be watching the Big 12 situation closely, as a couple losses from one Big 12 team to another would clear the path for them to be back in the National Championship, as predicted in this famous sports blog.

A few shameless plugs and some great predictions...That's what this blog is all about!

Stay tuned for going over this past weekend's predictions and what it means to the BCS layout, as well as the predictions going forward. Cheers!

NCAA Football Bowl Predictions

Per a GREAT request, I offer my first Bowl Predictions of the season. For sure as a top 5 team will fall, I will be amending this list, but as it stands, here's my take.

Let's start with the snooze-fests and work our way to the National Championship:

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force vs. Nevada
St. Petersburg Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Marshall
Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl: TCU vs. Arizona
Eagle Bank Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. Navy
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. UTEP
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: BYU vs. Hawaii
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Stanford vs. Fresno State
Motor City Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Central Michigan
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Boston College vs. Cincinnati
Champs Sports: Virginia vs. Northwestern
Emerald Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Oregon State
Independence Bowl: Kansas State vs. Tennessee
PapaJohns.com Bowl: South Florida vs. Kentucky
Valero Alamo Bowl: Illinois vs. Missouri
Roady's Humanitarian Bowl: San Jose State vs. Wake Forest
Texas Bowl: Colorado vs. Rice
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: Utah vs. East Carolina
Brut Sun: Nebraska vs. California
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl: Florida State vs. Ole Miss
Insight Bowl: Iowa vs. Kansas
Chick-fil-a Bowl: North Carolina vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Vanderbilt
Capital One Bowl: Minnesota vs. LSU
Konica Minolta Gator Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame
AT&T Cotton Bowl: Georgia vs. Texas Tech
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Tulsa vs. South Carolina
International Bowl: Connecticut vs. Western Michigan
GMAC Bowl: Houston vs. Ball State

Rose Bowl presented by Citi: Ohio State vs. USC
Fedex Orange Bowl: Maryland vs. West Virginia
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Texas
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
Fedex BCS National Championship Game: Florida vs. Penn State

Random Notes:
Texas Tech beats Texas, Texas Tech loses a game or two, Florida beats Georgia, Florida wins SEC Championship by beating Alabama...Done.

If what I predict happens, people will probably be calling the Sugar Bowl the true National Championship.

This could be the season of rematches with Boise State-Oklahoma and Ohio State-USC.

The ACC isn't very strong top-to-bottom against other conferences, but they are definitely the hardest conference to figure out to this point. The next two weeks should clear things up a bit.

Willingham's Replacement, Penn State Doesn't Deserve the NC, Florida-Georgia Game Huge, Other Notes of Interest

From around the country, here's the buzz:

Rivals.com, with many supporters, believes Penn State doesn't deserve the National Championship berth...No matter what. I can't say I can argue the point with any intelligent banter. And so the uproar begins, and only moments after a Penn State win over Ohio State that makes a Nittany Lions undefeated season likely. Enough uproar, and as I have predicted earlier, Penn State, even undefeated, will be nowhere near Miami come January.

It kind of goes without saying that the winner of Texas at Texas Tech this weekend will determine the favorite for the Big 12's donation to the National Championship game, but as Chris Low from ESPN writes, Alabama may not be the shoo-in that everyone thinks, making the Georgia-Florida game just that much more meaningful. If Alabama loses even one game, he believes, there will be no time to climb back up the polls. Florida and Georgia, on the other hand, already took their beating and have begun their climb back to the top, so whoever comes out of the game in Jacksonville unscathed may be the favorite to go to Miami.

If you haven't heard about Texas Tech's new PAT kicker, read this. The kid's story could be turned into a made-for-TV-movie for sure. The question is, how does the story end?

After Ty Willingham's announcement that he will voluntarily step down as Washington's head coach at the end of the season, Dennis Dodd is already conjecturing as to who the replacement will be.

Does anyone care about the ACC right now? No? Then don't read Heather Dinich's breakdown of the ACC finishing possibilities...but if you're a college football fan at all, it's actually pretty intriguing. Even if you don't care about the ACC, read this heartwarming story about a certin Duke Blue Devil's emotional victory after the Vanderbilt upset this weekend (thanks to Heather again for this link).

Buckeyes, Penn State, Lose-Lose Situation Tonight?

Every college football fan in the country has heard the rumblings: the Big Ten is weak.

Whether you are an SEC fan, a Big 12 fan, or just a college football fan in general, you have seen some of the better teams, possibly your team, get shut out of the national championship because of an undefeated or one-loss Big Ten team. Most fans outside of the Big Ten feel that because their conferences are stronger and their schedules tougher, weaker and less deserving teams are showing up to do battle in the Big Game, and to a point, I can't argue against those feelings.

Which brings me to the question many people are asking before tonight's football action: What will become of the BCS situation after the Penn State-Ohio State game?

My answer will delight SEC, Big 12, Pac-10, WAC, MWC, ACC, and Big East fans country-wide. Penn State and Ohio State will BOTH lose tonight, and here's why...

Result #1: Penn State defeats Ohio State BIG (more than 15 points)
Effect: Ohio State still can't win big games and Penn State just beat an overrated Ohio State team, giving Penn State exactly zero quality wins on the year. Penn State stays at #3, but drops when strength of schedule really starts to come into play at the end of the season. USC has the same problem, so they're in trouble, but Alabama, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia, LSU, and Oklahoma State all have a shot of jumping Penn State if any of them can stay at one-loss or less. In this scenario, Penn State could make it to the National Championship, putting a Big Ten team there for a third straight year, but even in best-case situation for the Big Ten, which this is, I predict the National Championship will be SEC vs. Big 12. Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State finally feels the effects of losing big to two SEC teams in two National Championships in a row.

Result #2: Penn State defeats Ohio State CLOSE (less than 15 points)
Effect: Ohio State still can't win big games and Penn State just beat a mediocre Ohio State team who got beat down by USC and is strugling behind a freshman quarterback who has potential, but a lot of growth to come. Penn State stays at #3, and on down the line, even going undefeated, voters trump the computers and vote a one-loss USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia, or Oklahoma State above them. Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State finally feels the effects of losing big to two SEC teams in two National Championships in a row.

Result #3: Ohio State defeats Penn State CLOSE (less than 15 points)
Effect: Penn State was overrated and Ohio State plays a schedule full of cupcakes. Everyone references the USC game on Sept. 13th to prove that no matter what, Ohio State can not be ranked above USC, and since USC has a bad loss to Oregon State and also plays in a currently-weak conference, voters keep USC capped at #2 or #3 and Ohio State never goes above #4 (even if the computers have them #2). Ohio State goes to the Rose Bowl where they get a rematch with USC or play a two-loss SEC or Big 12 team and have a chance to start to rebuild their reputation with a win. The next year, they are ranked between 10 and 20 in the polls.

Result #4: Ohio State defeats Penn State BIG (more than 15 points)
Effect: Penn State was overrated and Ohio State plays a schedule full of cupcakes. Everyone references the USC game on Sept. 13th to prove that no matter what, Ohio State can not be ranked above USC, and since USC has a bad loss to Oregon State and also plays in a currently-weak conference, voters keep USC capped at #2 or #3 and Ohio State never goes above #4 (even if the computers have them #2). Here's where Robert Frost's "The Road Not Taken" makes all the difference. Win close and you've done nothing to redeem yourself...Win big and you have started on the road less traveled - the road to winning big in big games - the road to redemption. Instead of starting their reputation-rebuild in the Rose Bowl, Ohio State gets its second big win against a good SEC or Big 12 team and the turn-around occurs. The next year, they are again ranked in the top 10, and possibly top 5, in the preseason polls and some of the national noise dies down.

Final Results: There is very little chance of a Big Ten team arriving in Miami and even if they do, if Penn State loses, the national rally cry against the Big Ten will only get louder. The Big Ten will continue to suffer from a negative image perception across the country. The only hope if you're a Big Ten fan are quality wins against good bowl teams across the board, which means Minnesota and Northwestern have never been more important to the Big Ten's reputation.

Here's how I see it playing out:

• Penn State or Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
• The other of Penn State/Ohio State in the Capital One Bowl
• Minnesota and Northwestern both in decent bowl games

The perceptual upswing begins if all four of these teams win their bowl games. I realize that this is an extreme statement, but anything less just gives the rest of the country more fuel for the fire.

If you're a Big Ten fan, pray that whoever wins this game wins it BIG and that the rest of the Big Ten continues to win. Anything short isn't the road less traveled by.

The Most important Top 25 in College Football...mine

Here's how I see it as of right this second. Note that this could change at any moment...This is college football after all.

And I did NOT do a preseason poll, so I am not influenced by previous hopes or predictions. Let that be known.

Top 25 as seen through the eyes of Ksquared
1. Alabama - How could you put God Saban below anyone right now?
2. Oklahoma - A popular #1, but I think to this point, the Tide has proven more.
3. Missouri - If their defense was a little better, I would have them above Oklahoma.
4. Texas - They look great, but can they win out with McCoy being their leading rusher?
5. LSU - If a top 5 team could possibly fly under the radar, they are doing it.
6. Texas Tech - Same comment as Missouri - Tech, you need to tighten up on D.
7. Vanderbilt - I like these guys...a lot. They prove that T-E-A-M is greater than I.
8. Georgia - They're still a great team, but they need to win out to stay in the top 10.
9. USC - Another great team that shouldn't have lost and MUST win out to stay afloat.
10. Penn State - I don't think they are as good as everyone thinks they are, but we'll see.
11. Utah - They haven't beaten a GREAT team, but they do have some good gritty wins.
12. Ohio State - A solid team, if not erratic, and can only get better under Pryor.
13. Oklahoma State - Talk about an explosive team, the energy these guys have is incredible.
14. Boise State - They're doing it again. Too bad their coach will find a better job next year.
15. Florida - How is this offense NOT producing??? I have no clue, but it's not.
16. BYU - The last game of the season will tell all...and I have Utah pulling it out.
17. South Florida - Tough loss to Pitt, but by the end of the season, it shouldn't be a bad loss.
18. Virginia Tech - They haven't impressed me and I don't think they'll be this high for too long.
19. Michigan State - Ringer makes Hoyer look better and hence the Spartans are contenders.
20. North Carolina - This team is GOOD. They beat what is a very good UCONN team.
21. Ball State - They look phenomenal...Navy and Indiana are no North Texas.
22. Pittsburgh - They are starting to become what everyone thought they'd be. Watch out.
23. Tulsa - We'll never know how good they are...they don't play a good team all season.
24. Kansas - That loss to South Florida looks killer now...Reesing hasn't looked too solid.
25. California - I know they beat Michigan State, but I still don't think they're the better team.

There are some conference patterns, for sure...and it is not coincidence. You will notice a lot of the Big 12 and SEC teams up top and you'll see a lot of the ACC and Big East in the bottom half. That's the way it should be, in my book.

Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Big Ten - 3
ACC, Big East, PAC 10, Mnt. West- 2
MAC, CUSA, WAC- 1

Why the Big Ten can't compete with the SEC and Big 12...yet

Look, it's not Rocket Science that the SEC and Big 12 are the two best conferences in the country, but what is a little more confusing is WHY that is the case. After all, Pennsylvania and Ohio are two of the biggest recruiting pipelines in the country. Why does it seem like the SEC and Big 12 keep on beating up on the "slow" Big ten? I'm going to answer this question with some Fact vs. Fiction statements. Read on...

Fact: The SEC and Big 12 have recruited better all-around athletes in the last 5-8 years.
Fiction: The Big Ten is slow.
Reasoning: Look, the Big Ten is NOT slow. You don't have success like the Big Ten has had (regardless of the National Championships) without having speed. Whoever started this ridiculous rumor should be fired...and anyone continuing to spread this rumor should be fired and then hidden from the public.

That said, there is a difference between the conferences, but it is not as simple as speed vs. no-speed...It is overall athleticism. A talented athlete has more than just speed and the SEC and Big 12 have had better success recruiting this kind of talent.

Fact: The Big Ten has as many NFL prospects as the SEC and Big 12
Fiction: The Big Ten has just as much talent as the SEC and Big 12
Reasoning: Sure, the Big Ten has a ton of NFL prospects, sometimes more than the SEC and Big 12 in the last few years, but it is because the Big Ten has up until recently been recruiting "position" players. These types of players fulfill their role perfectly, but can't necessarily make big things happen on their own. In college, big-play type players can directly affect the outcome of a game, hence the success of the SEC and Big 12 (Tim Tebow and Vince Young, anyone?). In the NFL, however, things change.

In the NFL, your position is your job and because everyone's doing their job well, you have to too. It is the reason players like Graham Harrell are projected higher than Tim Tebow going to the NFL and why Vince Young has struggled mightily at the next level. Everyone in College football would rather have Tebow than Harrell because of his big-play ability, but in the NFL, that's simply not enough.

Bottomline: If I'm an NFL scout, I go to just as many Big Ten games as the SEC and Big 12, but when it comes to building a football team at the NCAA level, I am on the recruiting trail looking for athletes with big-play ability. The Big Ten is starting to figure out what the SEC and Big 12 already knew, but it's going to be a couple of years before the results begin to show. Terelle Pryor is definitely a step in the right direction.