Ksquared's Dumbest-Day-To-Have-A-Bowl-Game Bowl Prediction

After USC manhandled Penn State, there's no doubt that the Tostito's Fiesta Bowl went to the top of the list as the next most anticipated bowl game. When all's said and done, I truly believe this will be the second most exciting BCS bowl game next to the Florida-Oklahoma matchup. And I can't wait. So, without further ado...

January 5, 2009 - Tostito's Fiesta Bowl - Glendale, AZ
#10 Ohio State vs. #3 Texas - 8:00 pm ET
The Good: These two teams have recently battled twice in a very memorable home/away regular season matchup, with both teams coming away victorious on one occasion. The quintessential rubber match is now...and it should be a good one. Beanie Wells is healthy, Colt McCoy is more confident than ever, Terrelle Pryor is more experienced, both defenses have multiple impact players who will be playing on Sunday next year, Coach Tressel is finally comfortable with the new system under Pryor, Coach Brown is raving mad after another BCS snub.......shall I go on? What's not to like about this matchup? TCU proved Boise State doesn't belong here (the only argument against the game I considered when this matchup was announced) and I can't imagine a better Fiesta Bowl than this one. Because I am in Phoenix, and as is customary in my many sports endeavors, I will be attending this game. I expect a showdown.

The Bad: I have to work the entire day because the stupid television execs and BCS decision-maker big wigs (NOT the Fiesta Bowl) decided it should played on Monday, January 5th. Dumb. That said, it is the only thing I don't like about this game. These teams are evenly matched and though most people expect Texas to dominate this game, I just don't see that happening.

The Ugly Prediction: Ohio State has started FAST the last three big games they've played in (Ginn touchdown return against Florida, Wells run for touchdown against LSU, and a fluid first-drive against USC) and they have lost BIG in all three. I expect an opposite turn-of-events in this game. Pryor's nerves will probably get the best of him early on and the Longhorns' D will come out angry, making for some Ohio State stumbling and bumbling. On the flip side, McCoy's newfound experience and maturity will do well for Texas at the start and they should be able to gain some yards early. And then the fun will truly begin. Texas leads 10-0...Everyone settles into the game and the real battle ensues...It's 17-14 at half-time (either way)...The dog fight is on...It comes down to a few key plays in the fourth quarter (for the sake of a truly ugly prediction, I will go with a rare McCoy interception and a HUGE return by Ray Small)...Drum roll please...
Ohio State 27 - Texas 24

Ksquared vs. Todd McShay - The winner is...

You be the judge...

PRE-GAME
Todd McShay:
"The Longhorns will take care of business in Lubbock for three reasons. First, Orakpo and Kindle will apply more pressure on Harrell than he is accustomed to seeing...
Prediction: Longhorns 41, Red Raiders 31"

Ksquared:
"...As it comes down the stretch into the fourth quarter, I expect Tech to be down by a touchdown or so, but their pass-first persona will serve it's purpose perfectly as they pass their way to a come-from-behind victory.
Texas Tech 47 - Texas 45"

RESULT
Texas Tech 39 - Texas 33

POST-GAME
Todd McShay:
"The most surprising aspect of Saturday night's upset in Lubbock -- at least from my vantage point -- was Texas Tech's dominance in the trenches...The experienced Red Raiders offensive line provided Harrell with Secret Service-like protection..."

Ksquared:
"And so it was, as Tech made it's National Championship hopes a much more realistic possibility."

And by a landslide...

Texas Tech has done it, Georgia Tech and Maryland in good position, Florida looks incredible

Some news and notes from the wild weekend of college football.

• And I quote a very well-written sports blog, "As it comes down the stretch into the fourth quarter, I expect Tech to be down by a touchdown or so, but their pass-first persona will serve it's purpose perfectly as they pass their way to a come-from-behind victory." And so it was, as Tech made it's National Championship hopes a much more realistic possibility.
• With Georgia Tech's win over Florida State, Georgia Tech and Maryland are in prime position to get into a nice little bowl game. In fact, as predicted in a very intelligent sports blog, Maryland is in great position to take the spot in the FedEx Orange Bowl. At the very least, Maryland is in control of it's own destiny now. Win out the season, and the Terps' struggles early-season are forgotten.
• Florida actually may be the best team in college football right now and if they continue to play well into December, Alabama will be in trouble in the SEC Championship. Florida should be watching the Big 12 situation closely, as a couple losses from one Big 12 team to another would clear the path for them to be back in the National Championship, as predicted in this famous sports blog.

A few shameless plugs and some great predictions...That's what this blog is all about!

Stay tuned for going over this past weekend's predictions and what it means to the BCS layout, as well as the predictions going forward. Cheers!

ESPN's Bruce Feldman and Ksquared on the Same Page

Bruce Feldman's picks very closely matched my own, which could be a bad thing looking at his winning percentage on the year, but I'll take the credibility boost anyway! We only disagree on the Texas Tussle, but we both agree it's going to be high scoring and close.

Note: My picks were up and loaded before Bruce's. Hmmm, interesting.

#1 Texas at #7 Texas Tech - Game Summary Breakdown

Here it is - my second GSB of the season, and a much different game than the first. Offense rules the day in Lubbock, TX and it may come down to the team that can make a stop that takes the game. Without further delay...

Offense - Texas Longhorns
Everything centers around the athletic play of Colt McCoy, but it's not necessarily all about his passing game. He is a mobile quarterback and with averages of 32 pass attempts per game and 40 runs per game (some of these are McCoy scrambling for yardage), Texas has one of the best balances of run and pass in the nation. And this is the key. As a defense, the only possible way you can beat Texas is to confuse the offensive line with different blitz packages, take away the run early, and contain McCoy when he gets flushed out of the pocket. The phrase, "You can't stop them, you can only hope to contain them," applies here.

Offense - Texas Tech Red Raiders
Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are the most dangerous pair in the entire league, with both players on the Heisman list, and deservedly so. Tech's offense is 3rd in points per game, 2nd in yards per game, 1st in pass yards per game, and 1st in receptions per game. But Tech fans have seen offensive numbers like this before. What makes this Mike Leach Texas Tech team so special is that even though they only rush 25 times per game (3rd to last in the country), they are still putting up 138 rushing yards per game. It is in this equation that lies the secret to Tech winning this game. In the first half, if Texas Tech can keep the Texas defense honest with just a few good runs, the passing game will remain open long enough to keep the game close. Keep it close, and I truly believe Texas Tech has the upper hand with it's dominant power-offense.

Defense - Texas Longhorns
The defensive front for the Longhorns may be the best they've ever had. Orakpo, Houston, Miller, and Melton (doesn't that sound like a law firm?) have a combined 25.5 tackles for loss resulting in a total of 118 yards that they have cost opposing teams. Deeper than that, however, if this team has a weakness, it is the secondary. They only have 5 interceptions on the year and have given up 335 passing yards per game. Granted, they play in the pass-happy Big 12, but they have not faced as dominant a duo as Harrell and Crabtree. Pressure on Harrell will definitely be key, but getting through one of the toughest offensive lines in football won't be easy. If Harrell has time to pass, his wide receivers will find a way to get open and the Texas secondary will finally be exposed for what it is.

Defense - Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech will not be able to stop Texas like Oklahoma State did, but with an offense like the Red Raiders have, it may not matter. A couple of big stops will be key. Since getting Texas to third down may happen seldomly, stopping McCoy in these situations is going to be huge. Watch for the Texas Tech secondary to key on Jordan Shipley, Texas' big-time wide receiver, especially in the Red Zone. If they can contain the receivers, Tech's spy on McCoy better not lose containment or the coverage won't matter. The Texas Tech secondary, by the way, has 14 takeaways on the season, good for 3rd in the country. If they can get a couple more against Colt "80% completion percentage" McCoy, they'll be in pretty good shape.

Special Teams:
Texas definitely has the upper-hand in the punt game (if anyone ever punts), but I don't think punting is going to be a factor in this game at all. Field position will be decided more by the returns than the kicks, and most likely, kick returns rather than punt returns. In the kick return category, the two teams from the Lonestar State are almost dead even with Texas having a better kick return average by four-tenths of a point. And so, short and sweet, unless a punt or field block occurs, special teams really shouldn't be too much of a factor.

Key Matchups:
DE Brian Orakpo vs. LT Rylan Reed
This will be THE matchup of the game, as nobody this year has been able to stop Orakpo. But nobody is Texas Tech, either, and Reed is one of the best in the game. This is the kind of battle that you always hear announcers say is won "in the trenches," which, for those of you who may not get it, is a war metaphor. This will be a mini-war in the midst of a major war.

WR Michael Crabtree vs. The Entire Texas Secondary
It will take the entire secondary, working together, communicating perfectly, and constantly in motion to even begin to contain what is maybe the best talent the wide receiver position has ever seen. An announcer last week compared him to Larry Fitzgerald, which I think is apt...unfortunately for the Longhorns.

QB Colt McCoy vs. QB Graham Harrell
Though they are not directly battling on the field, both of these incredible talents will have a national stage in which to showcase their talents...and the winner may just end up taking home the Heisman. Whichever quarterback wins this game definitely has the upper-hand in the race.

Ksquared Prediction:
Here we go: two huge Big 12 teams, two great coaches, two powerhouse offenses, and three Heisman candidates. Orakpo and the Texas D-line will have to get pressure on Harrell in order to stop the Red Raider offense and the Tech senior duo of McBath and Charbonnet will need to bring down an interception or two to keep McCoy on his toes. If either quarterback completes over 75% of his passes and finds seams throughout the game, the other team will lose. Though offense is the specialty in this game, defense is the key. As it comes down the stretch into the fourth quarter, I expect Tech to be down by a touchdown or so, but their pass-first persona will serve it's purpose perfectly as they pass their way to a come-from-behind victory.

Texas Tech 47 - Texas 45

Willingham's Replacement, Penn State Doesn't Deserve the NC, Florida-Georgia Game Huge, Other Notes of Interest

From around the country, here's the buzz:

Rivals.com, with many supporters, believes Penn State doesn't deserve the National Championship berth...No matter what. I can't say I can argue the point with any intelligent banter. And so the uproar begins, and only moments after a Penn State win over Ohio State that makes a Nittany Lions undefeated season likely. Enough uproar, and as I have predicted earlier, Penn State, even undefeated, will be nowhere near Miami come January.

It kind of goes without saying that the winner of Texas at Texas Tech this weekend will determine the favorite for the Big 12's donation to the National Championship game, but as Chris Low from ESPN writes, Alabama may not be the shoo-in that everyone thinks, making the Georgia-Florida game just that much more meaningful. If Alabama loses even one game, he believes, there will be no time to climb back up the polls. Florida and Georgia, on the other hand, already took their beating and have begun their climb back to the top, so whoever comes out of the game in Jacksonville unscathed may be the favorite to go to Miami.

If you haven't heard about Texas Tech's new PAT kicker, read this. The kid's story could be turned into a made-for-TV-movie for sure. The question is, how does the story end?

After Ty Willingham's announcement that he will voluntarily step down as Washington's head coach at the end of the season, Dennis Dodd is already conjecturing as to who the replacement will be.

Does anyone care about the ACC right now? No? Then don't read Heather Dinich's breakdown of the ACC finishing possibilities...but if you're a college football fan at all, it's actually pretty intriguing. Even if you don't care about the ACC, read this heartwarming story about a certin Duke Blue Devil's emotional victory after the Vanderbilt upset this weekend (thanks to Heather again for this link).