Friday, October 31, 2008

Think Georgia-Florida is a Big Game???

No, it's not a snow day...No, it's not the flu...No, it's not a hurricane...It's a football game...and Georgia school districts are closing.

It's not out of celebration, either, but out of necessity.

Isn't college football great?!

Thursday, October 30, 2008

NCAA Football Bowl Predictions

Per a GREAT request, I offer my first Bowl Predictions of the season. For sure as a top 5 team will fall, I will be amending this list, but as it stands, here's my take.

Let's start with the snooze-fests and work our way to the National Championship:

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force vs. Nevada
St. Petersburg Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Marshall
Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl: TCU vs. Arizona
Eagle Bank Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. Navy
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Troy vs. UTEP
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: BYU vs. Hawaii
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Stanford vs. Fresno State
Motor City Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Central Michigan
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Boston College vs. Cincinnati
Champs Sports: Virginia vs. Northwestern
Emerald Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Oregon State
Independence Bowl: Kansas State vs. Tennessee
PapaJohns.com Bowl: South Florida vs. Kentucky
Valero Alamo Bowl: Illinois vs. Missouri
Roady's Humanitarian Bowl: San Jose State vs. Wake Forest
Texas Bowl: Colorado vs. Rice
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: Utah vs. East Carolina
Brut Sun: Nebraska vs. California
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl: Florida State vs. Ole Miss
Insight Bowl: Iowa vs. Kansas
Chick-fil-a Bowl: North Carolina vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Vanderbilt
Capital One Bowl: Minnesota vs. LSU
Konica Minolta Gator Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame
AT&T Cotton Bowl: Georgia vs. Texas Tech
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Tulsa vs. South Carolina
International Bowl: Connecticut vs. Western Michigan
GMAC Bowl: Houston vs. Ball State

Rose Bowl presented by Citi: Ohio State vs. USC
Fedex Orange Bowl: Maryland vs. West Virginia
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Texas
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
Fedex BCS National Championship Game: Florida vs. Penn State

Random Notes:
Texas Tech beats Texas, Texas Tech loses a game or two, Florida beats Georgia, Florida wins SEC Championship by beating Alabama...Done.

If what I predict happens, people will probably be calling the Sugar Bowl the true National Championship.

This could be the season of rematches with Boise State-Oklahoma and Ohio State-USC.

The ACC isn't very strong top-to-bottom against other conferences, but they are definitely the hardest conference to figure out to this point. The next two weeks should clear things up a bit.

ESPN's Bruce Feldman and Ksquared on the Same Page

Bruce Feldman's picks very closely matched my own, which could be a bad thing looking at his winning percentage on the year, but I'll take the credibility boost anyway! We only disagree on the Texas Tussle, but we both agree it's going to be high scoring and close.

Note: My picks were up and loaded before Bruce's. Hmmm, interesting.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

#1 Texas at #7 Texas Tech - Game Summary Breakdown

Here it is - my second GSB of the season, and a much different game than the first. Offense rules the day in Lubbock, TX and it may come down to the team that can make a stop that takes the game. Without further delay...

Offense - Texas Longhorns
Everything centers around the athletic play of Colt McCoy, but it's not necessarily all about his passing game. He is a mobile quarterback and with averages of 32 pass attempts per game and 40 runs per game (some of these are McCoy scrambling for yardage), Texas has one of the best balances of run and pass in the nation. And this is the key. As a defense, the only possible way you can beat Texas is to confuse the offensive line with different blitz packages, take away the run early, and contain McCoy when he gets flushed out of the pocket. The phrase, "You can't stop them, you can only hope to contain them," applies here.

Offense - Texas Tech Red Raiders
Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are the most dangerous pair in the entire league, with both players on the Heisman list, and deservedly so. Tech's offense is 3rd in points per game, 2nd in yards per game, 1st in pass yards per game, and 1st in receptions per game. But Tech fans have seen offensive numbers like this before. What makes this Mike Leach Texas Tech team so special is that even though they only rush 25 times per game (3rd to last in the country), they are still putting up 138 rushing yards per game. It is in this equation that lies the secret to Tech winning this game. In the first half, if Texas Tech can keep the Texas defense honest with just a few good runs, the passing game will remain open long enough to keep the game close. Keep it close, and I truly believe Texas Tech has the upper hand with it's dominant power-offense.

Defense - Texas Longhorns
The defensive front for the Longhorns may be the best they've ever had. Orakpo, Houston, Miller, and Melton (doesn't that sound like a law firm?) have a combined 25.5 tackles for loss resulting in a total of 118 yards that they have cost opposing teams. Deeper than that, however, if this team has a weakness, it is the secondary. They only have 5 interceptions on the year and have given up 335 passing yards per game. Granted, they play in the pass-happy Big 12, but they have not faced as dominant a duo as Harrell and Crabtree. Pressure on Harrell will definitely be key, but getting through one of the toughest offensive lines in football won't be easy. If Harrell has time to pass, his wide receivers will find a way to get open and the Texas secondary will finally be exposed for what it is.

Defense - Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech will not be able to stop Texas like Oklahoma State did, but with an offense like the Red Raiders have, it may not matter. A couple of big stops will be key. Since getting Texas to third down may happen seldomly, stopping McCoy in these situations is going to be huge. Watch for the Texas Tech secondary to key on Jordan Shipley, Texas' big-time wide receiver, especially in the Red Zone. If they can contain the receivers, Tech's spy on McCoy better not lose containment or the coverage won't matter. The Texas Tech secondary, by the way, has 14 takeaways on the season, good for 3rd in the country. If they can get a couple more against Colt "80% completion percentage" McCoy, they'll be in pretty good shape.

Special Teams:
Texas definitely has the upper-hand in the punt game (if anyone ever punts), but I don't think punting is going to be a factor in this game at all. Field position will be decided more by the returns than the kicks, and most likely, kick returns rather than punt returns. In the kick return category, the two teams from the Lonestar State are almost dead even with Texas having a better kick return average by four-tenths of a point. And so, short and sweet, unless a punt or field block occurs, special teams really shouldn't be too much of a factor.

Key Matchups:
DE Brian Orakpo vs. LT Rylan Reed
This will be THE matchup of the game, as nobody this year has been able to stop Orakpo. But nobody is Texas Tech, either, and Reed is one of the best in the game. This is the kind of battle that you always hear announcers say is won "in the trenches," which, for those of you who may not get it, is a war metaphor. This will be a mini-war in the midst of a major war.

WR Michael Crabtree vs. The Entire Texas Secondary
It will take the entire secondary, working together, communicating perfectly, and constantly in motion to even begin to contain what is maybe the best talent the wide receiver position has ever seen. An announcer last week compared him to Larry Fitzgerald, which I think is apt...unfortunately for the Longhorns.

QB Colt McCoy vs. QB Graham Harrell
Though they are not directly battling on the field, both of these incredible talents will have a national stage in which to showcase their talents...and the winner may just end up taking home the Heisman. Whichever quarterback wins this game definitely has the upper-hand in the race.

Ksquared Prediction:
Here we go: two huge Big 12 teams, two great coaches, two powerhouse offenses, and three Heisman candidates. Orakpo and the Texas D-line will have to get pressure on Harrell in order to stop the Red Raider offense and the Tech senior duo of McBath and Charbonnet will need to bring down an interception or two to keep McCoy on his toes. If either quarterback completes over 75% of his passes and finds seams throughout the game, the other team will lose. Though offense is the specialty in this game, defense is the key. As it comes down the stretch into the fourth quarter, I expect Tech to be down by a touchdown or so, but their pass-first persona will serve it's purpose perfectly as they pass their way to a come-from-behind victory.

Texas Tech 47 - Texas 45

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Ksquared's Week 10 NCAA Football Predictions

So far, if you've bet my teams to win, you've made money in Vegas...Let's see if I can step it up a notch this week. Also, as some very astute folks pointed out, I did not have many upsets picked last week, which is sometimes how it goes, but this week is a different story...Read on.

#1 Texas at #7 Texas Tech - 8:00 pm ET
My Prediction: Texas Tech 47 - Texas 45

Arkansas State at #2 Alabama - 3:00 pm ET
My Prediction: Alabama 38 - Arkansas State 10

Nebraska at #4 Oklahoma - 8:00 pm ET
My Prediction: Oklahoma 52 - Nebraska 21

Washington at #5 USC - 6:30 pm ET
My Prediction: USC 48 - Washington 10

#6 Georgia vs. #8 Florida, in Jacksonville, FL - 3:30 pm ET
My Prediction: Florida 26 - Georgia 20
(Florida dances in the Bulldog endzone)

Iowa State at #9 Oklahoma State - 3:30 pm ET
My Prediction: Oklahoma State 48 - Iowa State 24

#10 Utah at New Mexico - 9:30 pm ET
My Prediction: Utah 30 - New Mexico 10

#11 Boise State at New Mexico State - 7:00 pm ET
My Prediction: Boise State 32 - New Mexico State 13

#13 TCU at UNLV - 8:00 pm ET
My Prediction: TCU 27 - UNLV 10

#14 Missouri at Baylor - 3:00 pm ET
My Prediction: Missouri 48 - Baylor 30

#15 Florida State at Georgia Tech - 3:30 pm ET
My Prediction: Georgia Tech 21 - Florida State 20

Northwestern at #17 Minnesota - 12:00 pm ET
My Prediction: Minnesota 17 - Northwestern 14

#18 Tulsa at Arkansas - 2:00 pm ET
My Prediction: Tulsa 62 - Arkansas 21

Tulane at #19 LSU - 8:00 pm ET
My Prediction: LSU 42 - Tulane 10

#20 Brigham Young at Colorado State - 6:00 pm ET
My Prediction: BYU 34 - Colorado State 13

Wisconsin at #21 Michigan State - 12:00 pm ET
My Prediction: Michigan State 34 - Wisconsin 28

#23 South Florida at Cincinnati - Thursday, 7:30 pm ET
My Prediction: South Florida 41 - Cincinnati 24

#24 Oregon at California - 3:30 pm ET
My Prediction: Oregon 45 - California 20

West Virginia at #25 Connecticut - 12:00 pm ET
My Prediction: West Virginia 32 - Connecticut 30

Just like last week and the week before that, the game of the century is happening this week! Enjoy your college ball this weekend...And be safe. Cheers!

Going Over Ksquared's Week 9 NCAA Football Predictions

Let's see how I did this week:

My Prediction: Texas 45 - Oklahoma State 38
What Happened: Texas 28 - Oklahoma State 24
What It Means: Oklahoma State is unofficially out of the National Title race...Texas only has one more game that has any resemblence of a Frasier-over-Ali knockout and it's Texas Tech this weekend.

My Prediction: Alabama 34 - Tennessee 10
What Happened: Alabama 29 - Tennessee 9
What It Means: Tennessee is still struggling, and will continue to struggle...Alabama is in prime position to make Saban a literal God.

My Prediction: Ohio State 32 - Penn State 27
What Happened: Penn State 13 - Ohio State 6
What It Means: The nation breaths a sigh of relief as Ohio State is all but eliminated from a third straight National Title appearance...Next to Ball State, Penn State is in the best position in the country to run the table, but are they in the best position in the country?

My Prediction: Oklahoma 52 - Kansas State 10
What Happened: Oklahoma 58 - Kansas State 35
What It Means: Not much...Oklahoma continues to roll and Kansas State still plays in the toughest conference in NCAA football.

My Prediction: USC 48 - Arizona 17
What Happened: USC 17 - Arizona 10
What It Means: USC continues to unimpress and Arizona is still a thumbnail away from being great...and Mike Stoops is still a thumbnail away from being fired.

My Prediction: Georgia 24 - LSU 21
What Happened: Georgia 52 - LSU 38
What It Means: LSU joins Ohio State on the outside looking in...Georgia gets a chance to get back in the National Title picture with a win against Florida this weekend.

My Prediction: Texas Tech 41 - Kansas 38
What Happened: Texas Tech 63 - Kansas 21
What It Means: Kansas, even more so than Kansas State, is simply unlucky to be in the Big 12...Texas Tech has a chance to shock the world and go to the National Championship by beating Texas this weekend.

My Prediction: Florida 31 - Kentucky 17
What Happened: Florida 63 - Kentucky 5
What It Means: Florida is BACK...Kentucky is NOT.

My Prediction: Boise State 20 - San Jose State 0
What Happened: Boise State 33 - San Jose State 16
What It Means: San Jose State will not win the WAC...Boise State could still get shutout of a BCS Bowl Game if Utah beats TCU.

My Prediction: TCU 24 - Wyoming 9
What Happened: TCU 54 - Wyoming 7
What It Means: Wyoming is still a non-factor...TCU has outscored opponents 140-28 since the loss to Oklahoma and has only Utah standing in their way of a MWC Championship.

My Prediction: Missouri 49 - Colorado 28
What Happened: Missouri 59 - Colorado 0
What It Means: Chase Daniel and the Missouri Tiger were pissed...Colorado was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.

My Prediction: South Florida 31 - Louisville 24
What Happened: Louisville 24 - South Florida 20
What It Means: Louisville is ahead of South Florida in the Big East (what?) and actually looks pretty good (huh?).

My Prediction: Pittsburgh 28 - Rutgers 10
What Happened: Rutgers 54 - Pittsburgh 34
What It Means: Armageddon is upon us.

My Prediction: Georgia Tech 24 - Virginia 10
What Happened: Virginia 24 - Georgia Tech 17
What It Means: We all continue to scratch our heads as Louisville, Rutgers, and Virginia, who all looked like sickly stray dogs at the beginning of the season, win in the same week.

My Prediction: Tulsa 69 - UCF 38
What Happened: Tulsa 49 - UCF 19
What It Means: Tulsa has brought down it's "average scoring per game" statistic.

My Prediction: Ball State 32 - Eastern Michigan 17
What Happened: Ball State 38 - Eastern Michigan 16
What It Means: I'm a genius predicting games and Ball State still hasn't played anybody worthwhile.

My Prediction: BYU 48 - UNLV 20
What Happened: BYU 42 - UNLV 35
What It Means: Nothing...BYU had its chance.

My Prediction: Northwestern 32 - Indiana 17
What Happened: Indiana 21 - Northwestern 19
What It Means: Northwestern was overrated, which isn't a surprise.

My Prediction: Minnesota 32 - Purdue 20
What Happened: Minnesota 17 - Purdue 6
What It Means: Minnesota actually has itself in contention for a nice bowl game...Purdue will battle it out against Michigan this weekend for "Worst of the Big Ten."

My Prediction: Florida State 17 - Virginia Tech 16
What Happened: Florida State 30 - Virginia Tech 20
What It Means: Everyone in the country has to start listening to the annoying Seminole fans again...Virginia Tech is still overrated.

And my final tally is: 15-5...Bringing my grand total for the season to: 59-16 (.787). Not bad, but I want to finish the season over .800, so I'll have to pick up my game this week. Stay tuned!

Monday, October 27, 2008

Willingham's Replacement, Penn State Doesn't Deserve the NC, Florida-Georgia Game Huge, Other Notes of Interest

From around the country, here's the buzz:

Rivals.com, with many supporters, believes Penn State doesn't deserve the National Championship berth...No matter what. I can't say I can argue the point with any intelligent banter. And so the uproar begins, and only moments after a Penn State win over Ohio State that makes a Nittany Lions undefeated season likely. Enough uproar, and as I have predicted earlier, Penn State, even undefeated, will be nowhere near Miami come January.

It kind of goes without saying that the winner of Texas at Texas Tech this weekend will determine the favorite for the Big 12's donation to the National Championship game, but as Chris Low from ESPN writes, Alabama may not be the shoo-in that everyone thinks, making the Georgia-Florida game just that much more meaningful. If Alabama loses even one game, he believes, there will be no time to climb back up the polls. Florida and Georgia, on the other hand, already took their beating and have begun their climb back to the top, so whoever comes out of the game in Jacksonville unscathed may be the favorite to go to Miami.

If you haven't heard about Texas Tech's new PAT kicker, read this. The kid's story could be turned into a made-for-TV-movie for sure. The question is, how does the story end?

After Ty Willingham's announcement that he will voluntarily step down as Washington's head coach at the end of the season, Dennis Dodd is already conjecturing as to who the replacement will be.

Does anyone care about the ACC right now? No? Then don't read Heather Dinich's breakdown of the ACC finishing possibilities...but if you're a college football fan at all, it's actually pretty intriguing. Even if you don't care about the ACC, read this heartwarming story about a certin Duke Blue Devil's emotional victory after the Vanderbilt upset this weekend (thanks to Heather again for this link).

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Buckeyes, You're Now Huge Penn State Fans

After the hard-fought battle last night that ended up being decided just as the pundits predicted, with a mistake by an inexperienced freshman quarterback, everyone in Columbus and around the nation that roots for the Scarlet and Gray should now be rooting for Penn State White.

The reason is simple: If Penn State misses a chance at the National Championship and instead goes to the Rose Bowl, Ohio State will be looking at a Capital One bid...not exactly where Buckeye fans were hoping to be when Laurinaitis, Jenkins, and Robiskie decided to forego the pros to finish their last year in college.

Here's how it could play out:
  • Penn State wins out the remainder of the season, goes to the National Championship to face mighty Texas, and Ohio State gets a rematch against USC in the Rose Bowl.

OR

  • Penn State wins out, voters don't want to see a Big Ten team get demolished in the National Championship for a third straight year, and a one loss Florida faces Texas in the big game (with two Heisman trophy quarterbacks facing each other). Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State gets the Capitol One.

OR

  • Penn State loses to Michigan State, God knows how, and the Nation breaths a collective sigh of relief as the top of the BCS polls are clear of Big Ten teams. In this case, Michigan State is the likely Big Ten Champion and the Rose Bowl committee chooses two non-Big Ten teams. This is worst-case scenario for any Big Ten fan, but especially for the Buckeyes.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

The Big 12 - Power Quarterback or Weak Secondary?

I've been thinking about this while watching Texas Tech and Oklahoma score touchdowns on almost every drive...Is it really the QB's? Or could the secondaries just be that poor? And how do you tell?

Sure Orakpo and the Big 12 D-lines are solid, but what about the cornerbacks and safeties? You would think that if the secondary matched up AT ALL with the wide receivers that you wouldn't see 40 and 50 points on the Big 12 scoreboard every week.

I truly don't have an answer here and I welcome any insight you in the Peanut Gallery might provide.

Here's my take (which, by the way, does not answer the question at all): The Big 12 QB's - McCoy, Reesing, Harrell, Robinson, Bradford, Griffin, Daniel, Hawkins, Freeman - are good, there's no doubt about that. They all had pretty good high school careers, were highly recruited, and have had good coaching along the way, I'm sure. But I don't care how good a bunch of quarterbacks are, if half the conference has passing completion percentages in the high 60's and 70's, there's something wrong with who they're passing against.

Which brings us to the Big 12 secondary. I'm sure these guys traveled the same route as the quarterbacks (good high school career, highly recruited, good coaching), so where is the disconnect? Do they put all of the truly talented players on offense in the Big 12? If you're fast, savvy, and athletic, do you become a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver automatically down South? I can't imagine the Big 12 does things much differently than the rest of the country, so it would be hard to believe that to be true.

Maybe the Big 12 should start playing some of their quarterbacks in the secondary...Players have played both sides of the ball before...So, why not? Obviously, that's not the answer, but it does seem odd that almost the entire conference has been so successful in the passing game and I'm not totally sold that the Big 12 quarterbacks are that good.

Any ideas? Because, so far, I can't figure it out...

Buckeyes, Penn State, Lose-Lose Situation Tonight?

Every college football fan in the country has heard the rumblings: the Big Ten is weak.

Whether you are an SEC fan, a Big 12 fan, or just a college football fan in general, you have seen some of the better teams, possibly your team, get shut out of the national championship because of an undefeated or one-loss Big Ten team. Most fans outside of the Big Ten feel that because their conferences are stronger and their schedules tougher, weaker and less deserving teams are showing up to do battle in the Big Game, and to a point, I can't argue against those feelings.

Which brings me to the question many people are asking before tonight's football action: What will become of the BCS situation after the Penn State-Ohio State game?

My answer will delight SEC, Big 12, Pac-10, WAC, MWC, ACC, and Big East fans country-wide. Penn State and Ohio State will BOTH lose tonight, and here's why...

Result #1: Penn State defeats Ohio State BIG (more than 15 points)
Effect: Ohio State still can't win big games and Penn State just beat an overrated Ohio State team, giving Penn State exactly zero quality wins on the year. Penn State stays at #3, but drops when strength of schedule really starts to come into play at the end of the season. USC has the same problem, so they're in trouble, but Alabama, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia, LSU, and Oklahoma State all have a shot of jumping Penn State if any of them can stay at one-loss or less. In this scenario, Penn State could make it to the National Championship, putting a Big Ten team there for a third straight year, but even in best-case situation for the Big Ten, which this is, I predict the National Championship will be SEC vs. Big 12. Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State finally feels the effects of losing big to two SEC teams in two National Championships in a row.

Result #2: Penn State defeats Ohio State CLOSE (less than 15 points)
Effect: Ohio State still can't win big games and Penn State just beat a mediocre Ohio State team who got beat down by USC and is strugling behind a freshman quarterback who has potential, but a lot of growth to come. Penn State stays at #3, and on down the line, even going undefeated, voters trump the computers and vote a one-loss USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia, or Oklahoma State above them. Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State finally feels the effects of losing big to two SEC teams in two National Championships in a row.

Result #3: Ohio State defeats Penn State CLOSE (less than 15 points)
Effect: Penn State was overrated and Ohio State plays a schedule full of cupcakes. Everyone references the USC game on Sept. 13th to prove that no matter what, Ohio State can not be ranked above USC, and since USC has a bad loss to Oregon State and also plays in a currently-weak conference, voters keep USC capped at #2 or #3 and Ohio State never goes above #4 (even if the computers have them #2). Ohio State goes to the Rose Bowl where they get a rematch with USC or play a two-loss SEC or Big 12 team and have a chance to start to rebuild their reputation with a win. The next year, they are ranked between 10 and 20 in the polls.

Result #4: Ohio State defeats Penn State BIG (more than 15 points)
Effect: Penn State was overrated and Ohio State plays a schedule full of cupcakes. Everyone references the USC game on Sept. 13th to prove that no matter what, Ohio State can not be ranked above USC, and since USC has a bad loss to Oregon State and also plays in a currently-weak conference, voters keep USC capped at #2 or #3 and Ohio State never goes above #4 (even if the computers have them #2). Here's where Robert Frost's "The Road Not Taken" makes all the difference. Win close and you've done nothing to redeem yourself...Win big and you have started on the road less traveled - the road to winning big in big games - the road to redemption. Instead of starting their reputation-rebuild in the Rose Bowl, Ohio State gets its second big win against a good SEC or Big 12 team and the turn-around occurs. The next year, they are again ranked in the top 10, and possibly top 5, in the preseason polls and some of the national noise dies down.

Final Results: There is very little chance of a Big Ten team arriving in Miami and even if they do, if Penn State loses, the national rally cry against the Big Ten will only get louder. The Big Ten will continue to suffer from a negative image perception across the country. The only hope if you're a Big Ten fan are quality wins against good bowl teams across the board, which means Minnesota and Northwestern have never been more important to the Big Ten's reputation.

Here's how I see it playing out:
  • Penn State or Ohio State in the Rose Bowl
  • The other of Penn State/Ohio State in the Capital One Bowl
  • Minnesota and Northwestern both in decent bowl games

The perceptual upswing begins if all four of these teams win their bowl games. I realize that this is an extreme statement, but anything less just gives the rest of the country more fuel for the fire.

If you're a Big Ten fan, pray that whoever wins this game wins it BIG and that the rest of the Big Ten continues to win. Anything short isn't the road less traveled by.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Fantasy Football Sleepers - Week 8

My Mewelde Moore and Wes Welker picks should have gotten you some big points (if you had listened). This week, I've got some dandies for y'all:

1. Deuce McCallister, RB, New Orleans - With Reggie Bush out, McCallister should get close to 20 carries and in effect, should put up some solid points as a #3 running back. Start him if you have an opening. I'm guessing he won't be on the waiver wires (although, many people who had drafted him at the beginning of the season might have let him go by now), but if you have him, this is the week to use him. *see my comment post

2. Brad Johnson, QB, Dallas - Another sleeper by default...Without Tony Romo, Johnson is the guy and there's no way an offense like Dallas, regardless of the quarterback, won't put points on the board. A warning, however, that he is a last resort and only if you have no other choice.

3. BenJarvis Green-Ellis, RB, New England - This is my pick-of-the week. Most leagues should still have this undrafted rookie on the wire and with Morris out again, he should rack up some good yardage and could get some short-yardage TD's. After New England's passing display last week, look for the St. Louis' secondary to be backed-up in zone coverage most of the game, making for some nice holes in-between the tackle-box.

4. Lance Moore, WR, New Orleans - Every wide receiver on this New Orleans offense should get some catches against a pretty soft San Diego secondary, so expect Moore to gain you some nice points. I include him here because he should still be available on waiver wire, but like Johnson, only pick him up if you are in dire need of a #2 or #3 wide receiver.

5. New York Jets ST/D - This is my second favorite pick of the week. The Jets defense has not played very well as of yet this season, but they will be hungry to get after a sputtering Kansas City offense that will playing it's third-string quarterback and most likely will be without Larry Johnson again. This is the only week I would suggest starting the Jets, but it is a good one to do so.

There you have it. As stated, Green-Ellis and the Jets D are my "Best Picks," and both are probably available to pick up right away. And JP, if you're reading this, Coles and Cotchery should both definitely start this week against a horrible Kansas City team. They aren't sleepers by any means, but I thought I'd throw it in for good measure.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Week 9 Top 25 College Football Predictions

It's official - the standings, I mean - The BCS Standings came out this past week, so we now have an "official" Top 25. It looks like voters are punishing Florida for a bad loss to Ole Miss and it also looks like the voters are continuing to punish Ohio State for it's last two National Championship losses. There is, however, a rare unanimous decision for the #1 spot in Texas. We'll see if they can hold on this weekend against a very good Oklahoma State team.

Without further ado...

#6 Oklahoma State at #1 Texas - 3:30 pm ET
It's too bad ESPN is really the only news source for sports, as their entire coverage has centered around their featured game, Penn State at Ohio State. In reality, this game probably has more National Championship implications. I think most pundits expect this game to be more lopsided than it will end up, which could be adding to the absence of coverage. If this game were in the Cowboys backyard, I might actually pick them, but in Austin, the crowd and the excitement will just be too much for Oklahoma State to handle. Closer than most think, but a Texas victory nonetheless.
My Prediction: Texas 45 - Oklahoma State 38

#2 Alabama at Tennessee - 7:45 pm ET
Tennessee is one of this year's major dissapointments and Alabama is one of this year's biggest surprises...In with the new and out with the old. Alabama wins this one big after a tight one against Kentucky the week before. Saban will have his kids focused and ready to play. The Tennessee crowd will try and pretend like it matters, but after the first quarter, they'll be silent once again.
My Prediction: Alabama 34 - Tennessee 10

#3 Penn State at #9 Ohio State - 8:00 pm ET
What more can I say here that I haven't already said. Pryor's from Pennsylvania, Clark's from Ohio...that's kind of cool. Since joining the Big Ten, Penn State has never won in the Horseshoe...that's kind of sad. Ohio State hasn't had a Freshman start at quarterback since the 1970's and the kid's 5-0 in his college career...That's kind of badass. As stated before, if this game was in Happy Valley, I give the edge to Penn State, but Columbus has been waiting to take it's revenge out on another highly ranked team since USC and they will be ruthless in the stands. Chalk this game up to the 12th Man and the Buckeyes edge the Lions to jump back into the top 5 in the standings.
My Prediction: Ohio State 32 - Penn State 27

#4 Oklahoma at Kansas State - 12:30 pm ET
Not a whole lot of explaining needed here...Oklahoma is going to have a field day and will let some of the third-stringers get work in the fourth quarter. If Kansas State stays within 35 points, I will be surprised. Boomer Sooner!
My Prediction: Oklahoma 52 - Kansas State 10

#5 USC at Arizona - 10:15 pm ET
This one is going to be closer than what we all thought at the beginning of the season. It was supposed to be USC's game at Arizona State that caused a stir in the state of Arizona...Instead, ASU is the embarrasment and UofA actually has hopes of winning the PAC-10. You heard it here first, those hopes will be smashed this weekend. Most years, I would say this is a huge trap game for USC and that Arizona has a chance to upset, but USC already had it's upset and I can guarantee that Carroll won't let them lose their fire going forward. We saw what happened to Washington State when they got in the way. USC - Big.
My Prediction: USC 48 - Arizona 17

#7 Georgia at #13 LSU - 3:30 pm ET
Another great matchup this weekend that has gone largely overlooked. This is a VERY important game for both of these teams, as a chance to go to the SEC Championship game could slip away from the loser. Imagine, we are only half-way through the season and either Georgia or LSU will, for all intensive purposes, be eliminated from Championship contention. This is a very tough game to pick as the Bayou is always a tough place to play, but I think Georgia muscles this one out. I'm taking Stafford to get back into form and have a Heisman-like day.
My Prediction: Georgia 24 - LSU 21

#8 Texas Tech at #23 Kansas - 12:00 pm ET
Some experts think this is a major trap game for Texas Tech and have gone so far as to pick Kansas to win this one, but I don't think so. Kansas' secondary is way too suspect for Harrell not to score on almost every drive down the field, so even if Reesing throws a few touchdowns, it won't matter. I'll take the over on this game and Tech to keep on winning.
My Prediction: Texas Tech 41 - Kansas 38

Kentucky at #10 Florida - 12:30 pm ET
I don't like Kentucky's chances here at all. They're coming off a tough loss to a good Alabama team, they're playing in the Swamp, and Florida has been rolling with Percy harvin back at full speed. Not to mention that Urban Meyer has had an extra week to scheme and come up with tricky little SEC plays.
My Prediction: Florida 31 - Kentucky 17

#12 Boise State at San Jose State - Friday, 9:00 pm ET
Another game that many are picking to be close that I just don't think will be. Boise State has shown no signs of letting up and San Jose State is no real threat. Boise State's defense has been solid, while San Jose has had trouble scoring. That spells s-h-u-t-o-u-t.
My Prediction: Boise State 20 - San Jose State 0

Wyoming at #14 TCU - 6:00 pm ET
There is no way TCU has a let-down after a great win against BYU and being in front of their home crowd. If Wyoming wants to win, they'll have to hope TCU's entire first-string defense gets the flu.
My Prediction: TCU 24 - Wyoming 9

Colorado at #15 Missouri - 6:30 pm ET
Oh, poor Colorado. They are the unfortunate souls who have to be next. Since Missouri's two-game slide, both the fans and the players are going to be taking out their anger on someone...and that someone is Colorado. Chase Daniel plays best with a chip on his shoulder, and after the last two games, I guarantee he's heard some critics reiterate his size-issue in relation to the NFL. This will lead directly to touchdowns...a lot of them.
My Prediction: Missouri 49 - Colorado 28

#16 South Florida at Louisville - 3:30 pm ET
This is my "be careful" game of the week. I am going with South Florida, but with reservations. Louisville has been pretty insignificant this season, not because they have been losing (Kentucky and Connecticut are respectable losses), but because their wins have been against nobodies. I'm not sure anyone really knows how good the Cardinals are and they are at home in this one. I'm taking South Florida by a touchdown, but I won't be surprised at all if somehow the Bulls figure out a way to lose.
My Prediction: South Florida 31 - Louisville 24

Rutgers at #17 Pittsburgh - 3:30 pm ET
Rutgers is BAD this year. BAD. Other than Connecticut, Morgan State is their only other victory. I guess this could be one of those start-out-slow-finish-big years, but I'm not seeing it. There are problems on every side of the ball and there just isn't enough time in the season to figure it all out. On the other hand, Pittsburgh's McCoy has started to play like he was supposed to all along and the Panthers are truly looking like the team that everyone had picked to win the Big East at the beginning of the season. If they can beat West Virginia later in the year, it will be smooth sailing for the Panthers, and they know it.
My Prediction: Pittsburgh 28 - Rutgers 10

Virginia at #18 Georgia Tech - 3:30 pm ET
Virginia has shown some flashes of brilliance lately, but so has Georgia Tech. And I don't think the Yellow Jackets will let their fans down being at home. I will say this...If Virginia wins its third conference game and fourth game in a row overall, I will be a believer of this turnaround season everyone's talking about. Until then, I'm picking Georgia Tech by two touchdowns.
My Prediction: Georgia Tech 24 - Virginia 10

UCF at #19 Tulsa - Sunday, 8:00 pm ET
Tulsa has put up HUGE points on everyone they've faced and this game is no different. David Johnson has 31 touchdown passes in 7 games, which puts him on pace for over 50 on the year. Though there isn't a team worth a hoot in their conference, with numbers like they have, who cares. If you score 77 points in a game, I don't care who you're playing, it's amazing.
My Prediction: Tulsa 69 - UCF 38

Eastern Michigan at #20 Ball State - 12:00 pm ET
I admit, though I am a fan of the MAC, I am not a fan of Ball State. Like Tulsa, Ball State also plays inconsequential teams...unlike Tulsa, they have a defense...but also unlike Tulsa, they need that defense because they don't put up over 50 points every game. I have Ball State losing to both Central and Western Michigan the last two games of the season. The question is, how far will they move up the polls before their long drop?
My Prediction: Ball State 32 - Eastern Michigan 17

UNLV at #21 Brigham Young - 2:00 pm ET
I still don't like BYU, but I like them a lot more now that they are where they belong. UNLV is no match and Max Hall will have a field day throwing the ball. That game at Utah is going to be the back-breaker at the end of the season, which should vault Utah into a BCS game over Boise State and kick BYU into a meaningless bowl.
My Prediction: BYU 48 - UNLV 20

#22 Northwestern at Indiana - 12:00 pm ET
This should have been a pretty good game, but Indiana has underdelivered and is overmatched by a soft-scheduled Northwestern team. Northwestern will still lose three more games this year to Minnesota, Ohio State, and Illinois (in that order), but for now, they can enjoy their Top 25 stay.
My Prediction: Northwestern 32 - Indiana 17

#24 Minnesota at Purdue - 12:00 pm ET
Minnesota, to me, is the surprise of the season. Adam Weber has been playing out of his mind and has shown he has true Senior leadership abilities. Other than an "I'll take it" loss to Ohio State, they shouldn't lose another game. I'll take the Gophers to go the distance and finish tied for second with Penn State in the Big Ten. I know, I know, it's early and there's a lot of football to be played, but I stand my ground.
My Prediction: Minnesota 32 - Purdue 20

Virginia Tech at #25 Florida State - 3:30 pm ET
This is a pretty even matchup, though no one outside of Virginia and Florida cares. I don't expect much scoring, but I do expect Florida State to win at home in a close one. After this win over a mediocre Virginia Tech team, you'll have Seminole fans crying that they're back...Listen, you're not back...You'll lose at LEAST three more games this season, so hold your horses.
My Prediction: Florida State 17 - Virginia Tech 16

And that'll do it...It's getting late here in AZ, so I'm hitting the sack, but be sure to check back tomorrow for my Fantasy Football Sleepers. And as always, be safe this weekend, especially you night-game crowds (I'm talking to you Columbus - No car fires please).

Cheers!

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

#3 Penn State at #9 Ohio State - Game Summary Breakdown

Okay, so here's my first ever official Game Summary Breakdown. All of my GSB's will be broken down into Offense (both teams), Defense (both teams), Special Teams, Key Matchups, and the Ksquared Prediction.

ESPN Gameday will be in Columbus, OH before the game and it will be the feature game Saturday night at 8:00 pm ET.

Offense - Penn State:
Penn State ranks 11th in Yards/gm and 7th in Points/gm, making them one of the toughest offenses to stop in the nation. Granted, they haven't played too many stout defenses, but in any league, the numbers they are putting up is still impressive. What I like most about this offense is the many different ways they gain their yardage, as they use everything from the I-Formation to a deep shotgun spread in order to move the ball. This makes it difficult to scheme against them. That all said, the Nittany Lions have not faced a defense of Ohio State's caliber and this will be a huge test for Daryll Clark (QB), Evan Royster (RB), and the explosive Derrick Williams (WR). Williams, though not the top receiver catch-wise for Penn State, has big play ability, and Joe Pa uses him in a multitude of ways, including run plays and screens. The wide-receiver screen play has burned Ohio State many times this year and I expect Penn State to try this one early and often. Look for some nifty plays with Williams and a hefty running attack with Royster to keep the superb Ohio State linebackers pulled tight in order to open up deep passing plays. If the Lions connect on a couple of these deep balls, it could be a long day for the defense and could put some major pressure on Ohio State's sometimes sputtering offense.

Offense - Ohio State:
At the beginning of the season, everyone thought we would be talking about Chris "Beanie" Wells (RB) for Heisman and the Boeckman to "Brians" connection at this point in the season. Instead, everyone's talking about Wells' health and Terrelle Pryor's (QB) amazing talent and composure as a true Freshman starter. Not exactly where the Buckeyes thought they'd be, but not at all a bad spot to be in. Wells is looking better than ever and with Pryor's run-threat addition to the backfield, the Ohio State offense looks like a different kind of dangerous. What makes this combination so dangerous is the threat itself, keeping everyone on the defensive side on their heels until they know who has the ball. This opens huge holes for both Pryor and Wells and these are two VERY good open-field runners. When everything's clicking, just like Penn State's offense, the linebackers get frozen watching the backfield and it creates easy passing lanes for the inexperienced Pryor to loft balls into. And this MUST happen for the Buckeyes to be successful against a stout Penn State defense. If Wells and Pryor get stopped early and Pryor is forced to throw downfield, he is liable to make mistakes, which could turn into interceptions and some game-changing plays. Brian Robiskie (WR) and Brian Hartline (WR) can both be huge playmakers if Pryor has the time and the space to get them the ball, but the Buckeyes gameplan will definitely be feet-first, air-second.

Defense - Penn State:
A candidate for "Linebacker U," Penn State consistently puts tough defensive players on the field and this year is no different. Their front seven top-to-bottom is stronger than Ohio State's and they have held offenses to 263 Yards/gm, good for 8th in the country. This is good, but it is relative as they have not truly faced an intimidating offense yet this year. What worries we most in this game, and what I think might be the difference in winning or losing, is their inability to stop the one running quarterback they faced this year in Juice Williams from Illinois. Penn State gave up 189 rushing yards in that game (almost 100 more than their average) and at times, it looked like Illinois was moving the ball with ease. If the Lions allow that kind of movement down the field against the Buckeyes, they'll never get out from between the lines and could tire by the 3rd and 4th quarters. The key for Penn State on Saturday is assignments...Everyone from the safeties to the defensive linemen need to stay home and do their job. If players consistently miss their mark, Pryor and Wells will run circles around them and could put up a lot of points like they did against Michigan State. If this happens, expect the very stout Buckeye defense to stay strong (both because they are experienced and because they won't be on the field as long) and hold the Lions. However, if Penn State can fill the gaps and make some early stops, watch out. Keep an eye on Aaron Maybin (DE), as he has an incredible 10 sacks already this year.

Defense - Ohio State:
Ohio State's defense got torched against a very skilled USC offense, but hopefully they've learned a thing or two since that game. The key for Ohio State comes down to what has been a weakness throughout the season, including against USC: the defensive front four. Getting pressure on Clark is going to be imperative in order for the Buckeyes to force Penn State into mistakes and create turnovers. If Clark has time behind a suspect Penn State offensive line, he will make the Buckeyes pay for it all day long with his skilled receivers (reference Sept. 13th against USC). If, however, Heyward (DL), Abdallah (DL), and Worthington (DL) can create some pressure in the pocket, Laurinaitis (LB), Freeman (LB), and Jenkins (CB) should have a field-day hawking balls. Look for a possible surprise game from Kurt Coleman (CB) as well, as he has shown flashes of brilliance at times but has yet to have a true breakout game. Pressure, forced throws, and three-and-outs - That is the key to a Buckeye victory. I have no worries about Ohio State stopping the run, so if they can do the above consistently, Penn State's offense will stay off the field.

Special Teams:
On every side of the ball except punting, Penn State gets the nod here. The Nittany Lions' Kevin Kelly (K) is perfect in extra points and has made 12 of 14 field goals, with his long being from 52. There's no doubt that if this game gets close, he could be a huge factor. Also impressive on Penn State's side is their kick return game. Derrick Williams averages 32 yards every time he returns the ball, so if I were Ohio State, I simply would not kick it to him. On punt returns, he is averaging just over 10 yards per return, but he is still a threat to go all the way every time he touches the ball. Punting is where Ohio State may have the upper-hand, which could be important knowing this is a game of two very good defenses and that field position could be at a premium. Ohio State, don't kick it to Williams...Penn State, kick it to Ray Small as much as you can. Small has butter fingers, which is why you may see Lamaar Thomas, a true freshman, returning kicks for some or all of the game.

Key Matchups:
Ohio State defensive line vs. Penn State offensive line
This is going to be an important battle, and one that I don't think anyone can predict. The Penn State O-line has been shaky at times, with linemen being pushed into Clark in the pocket, while the Ohio State D-line has been mediocre at best, with only one game so far where we have seen them get pressure on the quarterback.

Derrick Williams vs. Malcolm Jenkins
I expect Jenkins to be Williams' shadow the entire game. Penn State has other good wide receivers, but if early on, Jenkins can prove that he can cover Williams man-to-man, it opens up a world of possibilities for the Buckeye defense. Conversely, if Jenkins can't run with Williams early, Ohio State will have to double-cover and play zone which could open up some gaping holes. Watch this match-up closely at the beginning of the game.

Pryor and Wells vs. Penn State linebackers
Navorro Bowman leads the Nittany Lions in tackles (by a long shot), so he is key, but the help around him is pretty solid too with Tyrell Sales and Josh Hull. If Pryor and Wells can make these guys miss or just simply get to the second level and if they can do it often, the Buckeyes will score.

Ksquared Prediction:
This should live up to all the hype and will no doubt be a hard fought Big Ten game. No more "three yards and a cloud of dust," this game will be decided by two very talented quarterbacks from the other team's state. A slight edge goes to the Buckeyes on defense due to the experience in big games, but Penn State gets the nod on offense for athleticism at all three key positions: quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. When a game is this even, sometimes you just have to go with the home team, and in this case, being at home is a huge factor. The Horseshoe is one of the most difficult places to play in the country and more than anyone on the field, this will help Terelle Pryor, who might have had some problems had this game been in Happy Valley. It is not in Happy Valley and the Bucks will be ringing the Victory Bell.

Ohio State 32 - Penn State 27

Ref Tackles Player - This is Unbelievable!

If you haven't seen this yet, you need to.

I am willing to give the guy the benefit of the doubt in that he might have just been protecting himself, but that twitch action towards the player is what has me looking twice.

Check this out:


Maybe North Texas should sign this guy...

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Ksquared's NCAA Football Top 25

And revised once again...Here it is.

The Top 25 as seen through the eyes of Ksquared
1. Texas - God Saban is good, but Texas just beat Oklahoma AND Missouri, back-to-back...That's unnatural in this day and age.
2. Alabama - Saban, period.
3. Oklahoma State - They have had more impressive victories than Penn State and though they will be tested this weekend, a loss does not do too much damage (and I think they will finally lose).
4. Texas Tech - What? Three Big 12 teams in the Top 5??? Yes, that is correct. Harrell has proved me wrong and I am now drinking the Kool-Aid.
5. USC - Who knows truly how good this team is, but I do know they're better than Ohio State, hence the #5 ranking.
6. Ohio State - No one wants to to see them here, but this is where they belong. They are better than Penn State right now (and will prove it this weekend) so why should I wait to put them here. USC, you better hope they don't face you again in the Rose Bowl with an experienced Pryor and a healthy Wells.
7. Oklahoma - They are still a great team, but they could be the most volatile within the Top 25, looking at their schedule...It is grueling.
8. Florida - And their climb will continue...Their loss was a bad one, but if they win out, watch out. They could climb their way back into the National Title picture.
9. Penn State - Spread HD is looking very sharp. We'll see if they can stay in the picture this weekend...I am not so confident.
10. Georgia - I am now waivering a little with this Bulldog team. This weekend could speak volumes, but winning in Louisiana is never easy.
11. Utah - The Utes and the Broncos are neck and neck...What I wouldn't give to see them play each other.
12. Boise State - They have looked like the Boise State that beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl not so long ago. I repeat, I wish I could see them play Utah.
13. LSU - I like this team, but they have some growing to do...Next year should be their year.
14. Tulsa - Still putting up gaudy numbers, albeit against sub-par teams. Still, it's impressive.
15. Pittsburgh - This is a different team than what started the season...I expect them to make a nice little run here at the end and possibly be in BCS bowl contention.
16. Kansas - Even if they lose again this week, I still can't drop them much farther because they are playing top echelon teams.
17. South Florida - If they hadn't lost to Pittsburgh, they'd be higher, obviously, but that loss doesn't look so bad right now.
18. Missouri - Another team that could lose two more games and still be in the top 20 simply because of the conference.
19. TCU - Great win against an overrated BYU team. This defense can run with the best in the country.
20. Boston College - The ACC is beating itself up, but BC looks solid.
21. Minnesota - Their only loss? Ohio State. Adam Weber has this team looking VERY good right now. The Northwestern game will be interesting.
22. Georgia Tech - Again, who knows who's best in the ACC. They've all lost to each other and there's no rhyme or reason to it...All I know is they are ALL middle-of-the-pack type teams.
23. Arizona - Huh? They finally put together a couple of good wins? Hold strong against USC this weekend and even if they lose, I might move them UP the rankings. Too bad about that Stanford loss...
24. BYU - Now, this is where they OUGHT to be. They are still a great team, but they are NOT top 10 material.
25. Northwestern - I'm not totally sold that this is a legit top 25 team, but their wins are wins and I can't put anyone else here.
26. Florida State - they haven't proved enough yet...I need to see some more quality wins. The next two weeks will be very telling.

Added: Florida State (#26), Northwestern, Arizona, Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Boston College, TCU

Dropped: California, Ball State, North Carolina, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt

I was wrong about Vanderbilt, as they have dropped two in a row, but I maintain my stance on Virginia Tech and Auburn, both overrated. I will soon be going over my predictions and looking into the future to next week...Stay tuned.

Thank you to the anonymous blogger who pointed out that I had mistakenly left USC out of the mix...I felt bad deleting Florida State since they became odd-man-out, so they get kudos at #26.

All changes are in italics.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Going Over Ksquared's NCAA Football Predictions - Week 8

So, how did I do? Well, let's just say, the game of the week wasn't what me or the rest of the country thought it would be, but I did get some upsets to fly. Check it out:

My Prediction: Missouri 44 - Texas 42
What Happened: Texas 56 - Missouri 31
Oh, how wrong was the country on this one? An ESPN poll showed that almost 67% of the nation had picked Missouri to win this game, myself included. Texas and Colt "I am more of a man than Mike Gundy" McCoy are proving to everyone that they belong in the National Championship. Can they keep up this kind of efficiency? That is the question. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are next on the dockett...Man, the Big 12 is exciting this year!

My Prediction: Alabama 32 - Ole Miss 14
What Happened: Alabama 24 - Ole Miss 20
Closer than I thought, but Alabama pulled out, classic Saban style. I don't care if Alabama wins the rest of their games by one point, if they run the table, they should be in the National Championship (however unlikely that is).

My Prediction: Penn State 31 - Michigan 10
What Happened: Penn State 46 - Michigan 17
this game was closer than the score indicates. Michigan was leading for most of the first half, in fact. But, like any good team, Penn State played better when it mattered and game through with a pretty nice victory. This week will be their "final" test...Get past what looks like a snowballing Buckeyes team and you have a clear path to the NC.

My Prediction: Oklahoma 34 - Kansas 30
What Happened: Oklahoma 45 - Kansas 31
As predicted, Kansas kept it close, but Oklahoma was the better team and there was no way they were letting another Big 12 team beat them. It's just too bad for Kansas that they're in the Big 12, because they have a pretty solid team...Kansas could have 3 or 4 losses by the time the season's over and still would be one of the top 15 teams in the country in my book.

My Prediction: USC 50 - Washington St. 21
What Happened: USC 69 - Washington St. 0
USC just showed the glaring disparity between the top and bottom of the PAC-10. It also would have been nice if Washington State would have showed up for the game.

My Prediction: Texas Tech 36 - Texas A&M 28
What Happened: Texas Tech 43 - Texas A&M 25
This game would have been 36-25 if Tech wouldn't have scored a touchdown with hardly any time to go...and I would have looked like a genius. Instead, it was still a good prediction and though Tech didn't look perfect, they still look dangerous.

My Prediction: Oklahoma State 45 - Baylor 16
What Happened: Oklahoma State 34 - Baylor 6
Many pundits were talking about a potential upset...I'm not sure why. Were they watching the same Ok. State-Missouri game as I was? The Cowboys are for real, which is why I have them in the top 5 in my new Top 25 rankings.

My Prediction: TCU 23 - BYU 20
What Happened: TCU 32 - BYU 7
I was right and wrong, but more right than wrong. TCU came through with the upset and BYU has finally been proven in their overratedness...I just underestimated the TCU defense, which looks incredible. Good for you, TCU, and welcome back to the Top 25.

My Prediction: Georgia 24 - Vandy 10
What Happened: Georgia 24 - Vandy 14
One of my best predictions of the week, Georgia played well enough to win and Vandy just couldn't keep up. Applause to Vanderbilt for a nice run and here's looking to rebuilding the program around some big game victories. Watch out for the Commodores in the years to come.

My Prediction: Ohio State 30 - Michigan State 20
What Happened: Ohio State 45 - Michigan State 7
It happened...Pryor and Wells both had a good game. And it wasn't pretty for Michigan State. With Pryor looking better and better and Wells getting healthier, Penn State is going to have their hands full. Let's not forget, too, that Ohio State's D held Javon Ringer and the Michigan State offense to 7 points. "Spread HD" comes to Columbus and it better be razor sharp to beat the Buckeyes in their own house.

My Prediction: LSU 35 - South Carolina 17
What Happened: LSU 24 - South Carolina 17
Closer than I thought, but very SEC-like, LSU played just well enough to keep South Carolina down. Just like Kansas, it's too bad the Gamecocks play in the SEC...they would be a top echelon team in most conferences.

My Prediction: Utah 28 - Colorado State 18
What Happened: Utah 49 - Colorado State 16
Another big victory for Utah and they keep rolling over teams. As I wrote in my Top 25 rankings, I wish upon wishes I could see Utah and Boise State battle it out on the field. They are both so good and I can't really decide who's better.

My Prediction: Boise State 38 - Hawaii 24
What Happened: Boise State 27 - Hawaii 7
Defense ruled the night in a game that usually ends with a total point total over 75. Boise State is looking good down the stretch and should be able to get to a BCS bowl...but wait, what's that in front of them? Another BCS buster...Yep, Utah is still ahead of them in the polls. Could that change? Or could we have an undefeated Boise State team out of a BCS bowl game?

My Prediction: Virginia Tech 17 - Boston College 10
What Happened: Boston College 28 - Virginia Tech 23
One of my few mistakes this week, it actually proved me right. I wrote earlier that I thought Virginia tech would fall from grace, and they have, just sooner than I thought. BC is looking good even without Matt Ryan. But who the heck knows who is best in the ACC anymore...

My Prediction: North Carolina 25 - Virginia 24
What Happened: Virginia 16 - North Carolina 13 (OT)
I knew it would be close, but I thought for sure NC would come out on the winning end of it. Not to be, so instead, a Virginia team that hadn't scored a point on Richmond going into the fourth quarter earlier in the season actually looks pretty darn good. For turnaround of the year, Virginia could be getting the award.

My Prediction: South Florida 41 - Syracuse 14
What Happened: South Florida 45 - Syracuse 13
Another pretty nice prediction on my part, this game went as planned. South Florida is a great team and their loss to Pittsburgh doesn't actually look all that bad anymore. I expect them to make a run, but no way do they make a BCS bowl game.

My Prediction: Maryland 24 - Wake Forest 20
What Happened: Maryland 26 - Wake Forest 0
Schizophrenic...It's the only way to describe Maryland this year. No one knows if they're going to come out and play on any given day and though I thought they would pull this one out, never would I have predicted a shut-out. Wake Forest, wave goodbye to the Top 25.

My Prediction: Pittsburgh 28 - Navy 21
What Happened: Pittsburgh 42 - Navy 21
I thought Navy's defense would play better, but McCoy is looking better and better and decided to give Navy a taste of their own medicine. He rushed for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns. This guy might just be playing on Sundays.

My Prediction: Arizona 32 - California 20
What Happened: Arizona 42 - California 27
Again, I did expect Arizona to pull this one out after a dissapointment against Stanford the week before, but the way they did it is what made it impressive. Watch out USC, this Wildcat team could actually give you a game down in Tucson this weekend. They won't win...but hey, at least it won't be 69-0.

There you have it - I ended this week 16-3 with a few upset predictions, which gives me a grand total of 44-11 (.800) - Not bad, if I do say so myself. This coming week looks to be a tough one, so stay tuned for my "Expert" predictions in the coming days. I don't know about you, but I will be glued to my TV for the Ohio State-Penn State game. Be safe all!

Friday, October 17, 2008

Fantasy Football Sleepers - Week 7

Quickly, here's who to grab off the waivers if they're still available:

1. Sammy Morris, New England, RB - At this point, the most consistent back for New England. If you need a #2 or #3 RB because of bye weeks, he could be a nice replacement.

2. Wes Welker, New England, WR - Another New Englander, this time because Moss is going to be covered all day by Champ Bailey and Welker is due for a breakout game.

3. Mewelde Moore, Pittsburgh, RB - With Willie Parker out, Moore is going to see the carries and will be racking up the points. Pick him up as a #2 or #3 back.

4. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City, RB - Another backup playing a full game this week, with Larry Johnson out, Charles could be a nice replacement. Careful here, however, because the Chiefs are going against a stout Titans defense. I would go with Moore or Morris before Charles.

5. Kevin Walter, Houston, WR - Houston is playing Detroit...Enough said.

I admit, my Le'Ron McClain pick last week was a VERY bad one, but Jackson AND Frerotte ended up being pretty solid scorers. I really like Moore and Walter this week.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Week 8 Top 25 College Football Predictions - Short Version

Another Short Version - I figured you all didn't want to hear my ramblings anyway!

#11 Missouri at #1 Texas - 8:00 pm ET
Missouri 44 - Texas 42

Mississippi at #2 Alabama - 3:30 pm ET
Alabama 32 - Ole Miss 14

Michigan at #3 Penn State - 4:30 pm ET
Penn State 31 - Michigan 10

#16 Kansas at #4 Oklahoma - 3:30 pm ET
Oklahoma 34 - Kansas 30

#6 USC at Washington St. - 3:30 pm ET
USC 50 - Washington St. 21

#7 Texas Tech at Texas A&M - 12:00 pm ET
Texas Tech 36 - Texas A&M 28

Baylor at #8 Oklahoma State - 3:00 pm ET
Oklahoma State 45 - Baylor 16

#9 Brigham Young at TCU - Thursday, 8:00 pm ET
TCU 23 - BYU 20

#22 Vanderbilt at #10 Georgia - 12:30 pm ET
Georgia 24 - Vandy 10

#12 Ohio State at #20 Michigan State - 3:30 pm ET
Ohio State 30 - Michigan State 20

#13 LSU at South Carolina - 8:00 pm ET
LSU 35 - South Carolina 17

Colorado State at #14 Utah - 2:00 pm ET
Utah 28 - Colorado State 18

Hawaii at #15 Boise State - Friday, 8:00 pm ET
Boise State 38 - Hawaii 24

#17 Virginia Tech at Boston College - 8:00 pm ET
Virginia Tech 17 - Boston College 10

#18 North Carolina at Virginia - 3:30 pm ET
North Carolina 25 - Virginia 24

Syracuse at #19 South Florida - 12:00 pm ET
South Florida 41 - Syracuse 14

#21 Wake Forest at Maryland - 12:00 pm ET
Maryland 24 - Wake Forest 20

#23 Pittsburgh at Navy - 3:30 pm ET
Pittsburgh 28 - Navy 21

#25 California at Arizona - 10:00 pm ET
Arizona 32 - California 20

It all starts with a great game tonight, and remember, the top team has fallen lately on Thursday night and it could happen to BYU against TCU. Counting the Friday game in Week 3, 5 out of the 7 early week games have resulted in the higher seed losing, and twice they were top 10 teams. Let the games BEGIN!

Monday, October 13, 2008

Going Over Ksquared's Football Predictions

Some very good games this week, with Saturday starting off with a GREAT one. The Red River Shootout lived up to the hype, Florida took care of business, Penn State looked incredible, and Oklahoma State has kept it's National Champioship hopes alive (when's the last time anyone could write THAT?). Here's how I faired...

My Prediction: Wake Forest 28 - Clemson 24
What Happened: Wake Forest 12 - Clemson 7
What ever happened to Thunder and Lightning?

My Prediction: Oklahoma 32 - Texas 24
What Happened: Texas 45 - Oklahoma 35
WHAT A GAME!! Lived up to the hype and could have gone either way. Colt McCoy...Welcome to the next level. I will never refer to you as "Baby" McCoy again. Oklahoma, the way NCAA football works, you are absolutely still in it.

My Prediction: Oklahoma St. 54 - Missouri 48
What Happened: Oklahoma St. 28 - Missouri 23
Another AMAZING game...And I look like a genius. Though the defense in this game came out of nowhere. I will say it right now...Look out for the Cowboys. They are coached by a "MAN" who is "40" who is also brilliant and has some very good talent.

My Prediction: LSU - 18 - Florida 16
What Happened: Florida 51 - LSU 21
My major mistake of the week...Like everyone else in the country, I either overstimated the skill on LSU (which is likely) or underestimated the team chemistry of Florida (which I am NOT totally sold on yet). Florida needs to win a couple more big games before I forget about the egg against Ole Miss...It looks like voters have a short memory, though.

My Prediction: Penn State 34 - Wisconsin 20
What Happened: Penn State 48 - Wisconsin 7
Yikes! What happened to Wisconsin this year? Many pundits picked them to win the Big Ten and they are 0-3??? Penn State looks better than ever...Circle it on your calendar - Penn State AT Ohio State. In the Horseshoe...If the Buckeyes get past Michigan State, that game on Oct. 25th will determine the Big Ten Champion.

My Prediction: Texas Tech 49 - Nebraska 25
What Happened: Texas Tech 37 - Nebraska 31
There was no way I was picking against Harrell this week and he proved once again why I think he is the #1 QB prospect going into the NFL draft.

My Prediction: USC 31 - Arizona St. 14
What Happened: USC 28 - Arizona St. 0
Yaaaawwwnnn...B-O-R-I-N-G. ASU should be embarrassed and USC should not be jumping up into the top 6 in the polls, neither the Coaches (#4) NOR the AP (#6). And the shame of it is, they don't play anyone worthwhile the rest of the season. However, picture this: USC runs the table, Ohio State beats Penn State and also runs the table...and we have a rematch in the Rose Bowl in USC's back yard again. Sweeeet.

My Prediction: BYU 38 - New Mexico 13
What Happened: BYU 21 - New Mexico 3
Ho hum...BYU wins another game against another totally inferior opponent. I pray that BYU gets beat at some point here in the near future, because I don't want to see a team that barely beat Washington, a VERY inept team, go to a BCS game.

My Prediction: Georgia 36 - Tennessee 28
What Happened: Georgia 26 - Tennessee 14
Pretty much as planned, and yet, I was not impressed by Georgia in this game. The Bulldogs need to be careful...I predict they lose two out of the next three games.

My Prediction: Ohio State 30 - Purdue 10
What Happened: Ohio State 16 - Purdue 3
Ohio State's defense looked good again, but you would think with Pryor AND Wells in the backfield that you could at least score a touchdown. That said, Wells was on limited carries and I don't think anyone really knows what this offense looks like at full strength. We'll know soon (*see Michigan State and Penn State the next two weeks).

My Prediction: Vandy 20 - Miss St. 14
What Happened: Miss St. 17 - Vandy 14
I was close on the score - wrong about the outcome. I am disspointed because the Commodores were starting to become the feel good story of the year. Instead, they will become the victims of a few more losses now that the air has been taken out of their Cinderella balloon.

My Prediction: Utah 44 - Wyoming 32
What Happened: Utah 40 - Wyoming 7
I gave Wyoming too much credit, although Utah was very stout on defense. I like Utah right now more than any other non-bcs team, including BYU. Head-to-head, I think the Utes beat the Cougars.

My Prediction: Boise St. 34 - Southern Miss 14
What Happened: Boise St. 24 - Southern Miss 7
Actually one of my closer predictions (sadly). I thought the Broncos would have a better day on offense, but it didn't matter...The Broncos look very good and I place them right behind Utah and BYU.

My Prediction: Kansas 40 - Colorado 24
What Happened: Kansas 30 - Colorado 14
As I expected, Kansas came out on fire and Colorado never got going. Nobody's talking about Kansas in the Big 12 because of their early loss to South Florida, but watch out. They could sneak up on some people.

My Prediction: Auburn 18 - Arkansas 3
What Happened: Arkansas 25 - Auburn 22
This is exactly why I didn't have Auburn in my Top 25. They are not that good. Arkansas? Seriously? Maybe last year, but losing to the Razorbacks this year is just miserable.

My Prediction: North Carolina 28 - Notre Dame 18
What Happened: North Carolina 29 - Notre Dame 24
My best prediction of the week, I did not think it would be quite as close as it was. I figured Notre Dame's 18 would come as they were driving at the end of the game. Instead, North Carolina was the one catching up. But catch up they did.

My Prediction: Michigan St. 33 - Northwestern 30
What Happened: Michigan St. 37 - Northwestern 20
Another very good prediction on my part. Northwestern, in my opinion was a little overrated, as many thought they would win this game. Trust me when I say this is only the beginning of the Wildcats' losing ways.

My Prediction: Ball St. 52 - Western Kentucky 28
What Happened: Ball St. 24 - Western Kentucky 7
Much like the Oklahoma State-Missouri game, the defenses stepped up in a game that should have gone the way of the offense. I didn't watch this game (as I'm sure many of you did not), but I'm guessing it was a yawner. Boo to Ball State for not really playing anyone this year. It's not really their fault, but we won't know how good they are this year...ever.

Drum roll please...
14-4 again this weeek. For a total of 28-8. For College football, I'll take it. Though I am predicting better numbers for next week, you watch! Stay tuned!

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Week 7 Top 25 College Football Predictions - Short Version

No witty comments this week, but here are my predictions:

Clemson at #21 Wake Forest - Thursday, 7:30 pm ET
Wake Forest 28 - Clemson 24

#5 Texas vs. #1 Oklahoma - Neutral Field - 12:00 pm ET
Oklahoma 32 - Texas 24

#17 Oklahoma St. at #3 Missouri - 8:00 pm ET
Oklahoma St. 54 - Missouri 48 (My upsest of the week)

#4 LSU at #11 Florida - 8:00 pm ET
LSU - 18 - Florida 16

#6 Penn State at Wisconsin - 8:00 pm ET
Penn State 34 - Wisconsin 20

Nebraska at #7 Texas Tech - 3:00 pm ET
Texas Tech 49 - Nebraska 25

Arizona St. at #8 USC - 3:30 pm ET
USC 31 - Arizona St. 14

New Mexico at #9 Brigham Young - 6:00 pm ET
BYU 38 - New Mexico 13

Tennessee at #10 Georgia - 3:30 pm ET
Georgia 36 - Tennessee 28

Purdue at #12 Ohio State - 3:30 pm ET
Ohio State 30 - Purdue 10

#13 Vanderbilt at Mississippi St. - 2:30 pm ET
Vandy 20 - Miss St. 14

#14 Utah at Wyoming - 2:00 pm ET
Utah 44 - Wyoming 32

#15 Boise St. at Southern Miss - 8:00 pm ET
Boise St. 34 - Southern Miss 14

Colorado at #16 Kansas - 12:30 pm ET
Kansas 40 - Colorado 24

Arkansas at #20 Auburn - 5:00 pm ET
Auburn 18 - Arkansas 3

Notre Dame at #22 North Carolina - 3:30 pm ET
North Carolina 28 - Notre Dame 18

#23 Michigan St. at Northwestern - 3:30 pm ET
Michigan St. 33 - Northwestern 30

#25 Ball St. at Western Kentucky - 7:00 pm ET
Ball St. 52 - Western Kentucky 28

There you have it! One upset and that's it...Everything else as planned. Enjoy some of the best games of the season this weekend. Texas-Oklahoma and Ok. State-Missouri are going to be Big 12 classics! Everyone remember to be safe too.

Cheers!

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

The Most important Top 25 in College Football...mine

Here's how I see it as of right this second. Note that this could change at any moment...This is college football after all.

And I did NOT do a preseason poll, so I am not influenced by previous hopes or predictions. Let that be known.

Top 25 as seen through the eyes of Ksquared
1. Alabama - How could you put God Saban below anyone right now?
2. Oklahoma - A popular #1, but I think to this point, the Tide has proven more.
3. Missouri - If their defense was a little better, I would have them above Oklahoma.
4. Texas - They look great, but can they win out with McCoy being their leading rusher?
5. LSU - If a top 5 team could possibly fly under the radar, they are doing it.
6. Texas Tech - Same comment as Missouri - Tech, you need to tighten up on D.
7. Vanderbilt - I like these guys...a lot. They prove that T-E-A-M is greater than I.
8. Georgia - They're still a great team, but they need to win out to stay in the top 10.
9. USC - Another great team that shouldn't have lost and MUST win out to stay afloat.
10. Penn State - I don't think they are as good as everyone thinks they are, but we'll see.
11. Utah - They haven't beaten a GREAT team, but they do have some good gritty wins.
12. Ohio State - A solid team, if not erratic, and can only get better under Pryor.
13. Oklahoma State - Talk about an explosive team, the energy these guys have is incredible.
14. Boise State - They're doing it again. Too bad their coach will find a better job next year.
15. Florida - How is this offense NOT producing??? I have no clue, but it's not.
16. BYU - The last game of the season will tell all...and I have Utah pulling it out.
17. South Florida - Tough loss to Pitt, but by the end of the season, it shouldn't be a bad loss.
18. Virginia Tech - They haven't impressed me and I don't think they'll be this high for too long.
19. Michigan State - Ringer makes Hoyer look better and hence the Spartans are contenders.
20. North Carolina - This team is GOOD. They beat what is a very good UCONN team.
21. Ball State - They look phenomenal...Navy and Indiana are no North Texas.
22. Pittsburgh - They are starting to become what everyone thought they'd be. Watch out.
23. Tulsa - We'll never know how good they are...they don't play a good team all season.
24. Kansas - That loss to South Florida looks killer now...Reesing hasn't looked too solid.
25. California - I know they beat Michigan State, but I still don't think they're the better team.

There are some conference patterns, for sure...and it is not coincidence. You will notice a lot of the Big 12 and SEC teams up top and you'll see a lot of the ACC and Big East in the bottom half. That's the way it should be, in my book.

Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Big Ten - 3
ACC, Big East, PAC 10, Mnt. West- 2
MAC, CUSA, WAC- 1

Fantasy Football Sleepers - Week 6

Per request, these are my Top 5 Fantasy Football sleepers for this week. Now, understand that I am defining a FFS in which you might own this player as a #3 or #4, but this week, for some reason, he looks good to put up some points.

1. Gus Frerotte, QB - If you have him, start him. If you don't have him, pick him up from the waiver wire if he's available (my guess is he will be). I wouldn't normally start him over an Aaron Rodgers or Kurt Warner, but this week, he is playing the Lions. It is easy to find the first FFS most weeks by just looking at the players going up against the Lions. I wouldn't be surprised if Gus puts up 25-30 points this week.

2. Tim Hightower, RB - I guess by this point, some might not consider him a sleeper, but in my book, any backup running back is a tough Fantasy starter, especially if you are backup to Edgerrin James. If you have James, still start him, because Wisenhunt loves to pound the ball and you'll get 15 points just on yards alone, but I would put Hightower in there this week as well seeing as he will grab the touchdowns at the goalline. I do have some reservations because they are playing Dallas, but as we've seen in past games, the Dallas defense is not too intimidating.

3. Vincent Jackson, WR - This would never have been a "sleeper" last year, but he has been stuck behind Chris Chambers as the #3 wide receiver this season and his numbers reflect it. With Chambers most likely sidelined with an injury, Jackson becomes the #2 and against a New England secondary that has suffered lately, I expect him to give you a solid 15 or more points. Start him as a #2 in most leagues.

4. Redskins D/ST - This might scare a lot of you, as the Redskins haven't put up more than 7 points in a game yet this season. However, consider this: they have not been negative the entire season and they are playing the Rams this weekend. I expect Bulger's return to be more of the same for St. Louis, with a stout Redskins running defense stuffing them early. This will force Bulger to put it in the air and, at least this year, could turn into turnovers. Don't start the Redskins if you own the Vikings, Giants, or Eagles, but past that, go for it.

5. Le'Ron McClain, RB - If you've been following Fantasy Football at all, you know this isn't really a sleeper, as he has put up gaudy numbers, but just in case you've been walking around in fantasy land with your eyes closed (and the rest of your league has too), pick this guy up! He is the Ravens goalline back and is putting up almost as much yardage as McGahee in some games. Against Indianapolis this week, I expect another solid game. This is a great #2 or #3 back behind your #1. Consistency is key.

If you have any of your own sleepers or thoughts on mine, let me know. The only way I can improve this blog is with your help. Thanks especially to J.P. for the request and for being my MOST loyal follower!

Friday, October 3, 2008

Week 5 NCAA Football Recap

Week 5 ended up with not a whole lot of shake up. Not that it was boring by any means, but because everything went so smoothly, expect HUGE games and matchups this coming week and a much more exciting football weekend. Oklahoma-Texas and Missouri-Oklahoma State are just two of the GIANT bowl-implication games to be had. Here's how I faired in my predictions...

My Prediction: Oklahoma 45 - Baylor 10
What Happened: Oklahoma 49 - Baylor 17
Bradford was near perfect...again. The game of the season is now going to happen as planned and it is going to be a good one. If you watch any game this next week, watch Oklahoma-Texas. This will be one for the ages.

My Prediction: Alabama 34 - Kentucky 3
What Happened: Alabama 17 - Kentucky 14
After Alabama's HUGE victory over Georgia, it was reported that Nick Saban worked his kids to near exhaustion so they didn't get a big head. They didn't have a big head, but they DID look tired against Kentucky. Saban has been a little easier on them this week so far and if they are well rested, Ole Miss could be in trouble.

My Prediction: Missouri 43 - Nebraska 35
What Happened: Missouri 52 - Nebraska 17
As predicted, the "Blackshirts" are nowhere to be seen. After Pelini ran his mouth about shutting out the Tigers, Nebraska proceeded to give up an ungodly amount of points. But don't worry, Nebraska, you're no worse than the rest of the teams Missouri has played this year. Chase Daniels is staring the Heisman in the face and Missouri looks SCARY good so far. They will be tested against Oklahoma State this weekend, where the score could be 115-98.

My Prediction: Texas 52 - Colorado 10
What Happened: Texas 38 - Colorado 14
McCoy looked good, Texas' defense looked stout, and Colorado looked confused. Hawkins just got a nice extension to his contract and it looks like he's going to need it for Colorado to be a contender. Not this year, Buffs. Next week will make or break the Longhorns' season.

My Prediction: Penn State 42 - Purdue 17
What Happened: Penn State 20 - Purdue 6
How good is this Penn State team? I'm not sure we truly know yet. How good is Curtis Painter? Well, not that good, apparently. The Boilermakers have a big hill to climb and I wouldn't want to be a Purdue fan in the next few coming years...it looks bleak. The Nittany Lions, on the other hand, have their biggest problem on the sidelines as to whether or not Joe Paterno will coach from the field or from the press box...What a great problem to have.

My Prediction: Kansas State 52 - Texas Tech 49
What Happened: Texas Tech 58 - Kansas State 28
My mistake of the week, for sure, and to all the Red Raiders fans (and Harrell), I apologize. Texas Tech held strong against an inferior opponent and looked flawless in the process. Instead of having a horrible game like I was predicting, Harrell came out and had one of his best games of the season. So much for parity in college football...Tech was the better team on the field and they proved it.

My Prediction: Brigham Young 65 - Utah St. 10
What Happened: Brigham Young 34 - Utah St. 14

I'm not sure why Max Hall and the Cougars took two quarters off, but it didn't matter. Brigham Young cruised to an easy win that was not as close as the score indicted. At one point, I remember Utah St. making a sack in the 4th quarter with about 3 minutes left and celebrating as if it was a Pontiac Game Changing Performance play. Unfortunately for the Aggies, it was not.

My Prediction: USC 40 - Oregon 6
What Happened: USC 44 - Oregon 10
One of my best predictions of the week, USC showed everyone that they are still for real. Oregon is a pretty strong team in the PAC-10 and USC beat them almost as bad as they beat Ohio State. Everyone in LA is holding their breath that Sanchez is okay and ready to go this weekend, because Arizona State, though they have looked abominable so far, could give them a run for their money.

My Prediction: South Florida 33 - Pittsburgh 13
What Happened: Pittsburgh 26 - South Florida 21

Myself, and thousands of South Florida fans, were embarrassed. The Bulls killed themselves with penalties, Pitt's defense was stout the entire game, and the Panthers controlled the game clock. With those ingredients, South Florida didn't deserve the win and Pittsburgh may deserve another shot at the Top 25. It sounds weird to say it since Pitt lost to Bowling Green earlier this season, but if the Panthers can beat UCONN the last game of the regular season, they could win the Big East.

My Prediction: Florida 31 - Arkansas 0
What Happened: Florida 38 - Arkansas 7
Again, what used to be Arkansas is no more and Florida laughed at them the entire game. The Razorbacks didn't have a chance all game, won't have a chance all season, and may be looking at a pretty long next few years. I won't be surprised to seem some shake-ups in coaching staff this year and the next.

My Prediction: Vanderbilt 19 - Auburn 10
What Happened: Vanderbilt 14 - Auburn 13
A great game and a defensive battle, as expected. Some thought Vandy's offense would be stifled by Auburn's stout D, but the Commodores shined through once again. Interesting to note that Vanderbilt is last in the SEC in offense and third-to-last in the SEC in defense and yet are atop the standings. Their fairy-tale might be coming to an end with very tough in-conference games, but who knows, maybe THIS is the year.

My Prediction: Ohio State 35 - Wisconsin 10
What Happened: Ohio State 20 - Wisconsin 17
MUCH closer than I thought. Wisconsin did a pretty good job on defense and had Pryor confused at times. But when push came to shove, the young true Freshman did not dissapoint...He made plays when the game was on the line and that is the test of a major talent. The Badgers might actually lose three conference games in a row, which NO ONE predicted at the start of the season. We'll see if they can upset a hot Penn State team this week.

My Prediction: Utah 48 - Oregon State 38
What Happened: Utah 31 - Oregon State 28

Closer than I thought it would be, which made for great football. As I predicted, Moevao needed to have a good game to beat Utah. Too bad for Oregon State that their defense couldn't make a stop when it needed to. Props to Moevao and props to Sakoda, the Utah kicker. The teams were fairly even on the field, but Utah outlasted the Beavers. A great game that could have gone either way.

My Prediction: Kansas 52 - Iowa State 3
What Happened: Kansas 35 - Iowa State 33
I think Kansas has been overestimated all season long and I did it again this week. Their defense had major holes in it and they are not scoring like most people thought they would when the season started. The Big 12 is MUCH too competitive for Kansas this year.

What Happened: Boise State 38 - Louisiana Tech 3
The Bulldogs didn't have a chance. Boise State has looked solid all season and didn't let up at all against Louisiana Tech. The blue turf had some major negative effects on the visitors from Louisiana.

My Prediction: Virginia Tech 21 - Western Kentucky 3
What Happened: Virginia Tech 27 - Western Kentucky 13
This game went pretty much as planned, with neither team really impressing anyone. If I could make my own Top 25 (which I will do in the next couple of days), Virginia Tech would not be in it. They still don't have the kind of chemistry on offense that warrants a high grade for a complete team.

My Prediction: Oklahoma State 45 - Texas A&M 23
What Happened: Oklahoma State 56 - Texas A&M 28
Another game that went as planned. Referencing my above explanation, I have Oklahoma State as the opposite of Virgina Tech...the Cowboys have been underrated all year and are just starting to hit their stride. Next week will be THE ultimate test and if they can pull off the game of their lives, they could be a major factor in the polls and the BCS in the near future.

My Prediction: Fresno State 34 - Hawaii 17
What Happened: Hawaii 32 - Fresno State 29 (OT)
Fresno State should be VERY dissapointed with themselves. Everyone has held them on a pedestal only to see the Bulldogs let them down. Nobody loses to Hawaii that's worth a darn this year. And Fresno State has dropped far out of the polls because of it...and deservedly so.

My Prediction: Connecticut 24 - North Carolina 23
What Happened: North Carolina 38 - Connecticut 12
Shouldn't the Tarheels have the Top 25 number in front of their name? These guys are for REAL this year and are proving to everyone that the ACC is not totally dead yet. After a slow start, the conference is starting look like what everyone expected them to be. Props to Carolina for taking this one and doing it handily.

There you have it - My 14-4 week (not counting Boise State's game)...I will post what I think to be the Top 25 shortly, so stay tuned.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Why the Big Ten can't compete with the SEC and Big 12...yet

Look, it's not Rocket Science that the SEC and Big 12 are the two best conferences in the country, but what is a little more confusing is WHY that is the case. After all, Pennsylvania and Ohio are two of the biggest recruiting pipelines in the country. Why does it seem like the SEC and Big 12 keep on beating up on the "slow" Big ten? I'm going to answer this question with some Fact vs. Fiction statements. Read on...

Fact: The SEC and Big 12 have recruited better all-around athletes in the last 5-8 years.
Fiction: The Big Ten is slow.
Reasoning: Look, the Big Ten is NOT slow. You don't have success like the Big Ten has had (regardless of the National Championships) without having speed. Whoever started this ridiculous rumor should be fired...and anyone continuing to spread this rumor should be fired and then hidden from the public.

That said, there is a difference between the conferences, but it is not as simple as speed vs. no-speed...It is overall athleticism. A talented athlete has more than just speed and the SEC and Big 12 have had better success recruiting this kind of talent.

Fact: The Big Ten has as many NFL prospects as the SEC and Big 12
Fiction: The Big Ten has just as much talent as the SEC and Big 12
Reasoning: Sure, the Big Ten has a ton of NFL prospects, sometimes more than the SEC and Big 12 in the last few years, but it is because the Big Ten has up until recently been recruiting "position" players. These types of players fulfill their role perfectly, but can't necessarily make big things happen on their own. In college, big-play type players can directly affect the outcome of a game, hence the success of the SEC and Big 12 (Tim Tebow and Vince Young, anyone?). In the NFL, however, things change.

In the NFL, your position is your job and because everyone's doing their job well, you have to too. It is the reason players like Graham Harrell are projected higher than Tim Tebow going to the NFL and why Vince Young has struggled mightily at the next level. Everyone in College football would rather have Tebow than Harrell because of his big-play ability, but in the NFL, that's simply not enough.

Bottomline: If I'm an NFL scout, I go to just as many Big Ten games as the SEC and Big 12, but when it comes to building a football team at the NCAA level, I am on the recruiting trail looking for athletes with big-play ability. The Big Ten is starting to figure out what the SEC and Big 12 already knew, but it's going to be a couple of years before the results begin to show. Terelle Pryor is definitely a step in the right direction.